The Betfair Chase was introduced in 2005 and originally was the first leg of a £1 million bonus which could be attained by landing this, the King George and The Gold Cup all in the same season. Kauto Star secured this prize in the 2006/2007 season and Cue Card fell when in contention for the final leg in 2015/2016.
In the 19 runnings of this race, we’ve seen many multiple winners which means there have been just 11 names on this trophy to date.
I’ve looked at all those runnings to see if we can decipher what trends are relevant in landing this first Grade 1 of the British Jumps season.
KEY TRENDS
- You would make a profit backing the second and third in the market blind
- Should be rated 160 or higher and preferably 164+
- Ideally ran at 3 miles or further, and/or in open company last time out
- Course form not essential but beneficial
- Will have at least three wins over fences but ideally has four or more
- Probably has more than 10 chase starts under their belt
- Should already be a Grade 1 winner and preferably more than once
- Probably wasn’t sent off favourite last time out
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 3/19 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/19 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 2/19 (11%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 5/19 (26%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 2/19 (11%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/19 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
Three of the four multiple winners of this contest won their first when aged six and the other won aged seven so while we’ve had older winners of the race, they has previously been younger winners or first-time winners. Kauto Star is the only 11yo winner when still rated 170 so there wont be many like him again.
8yo’s have the worst winning strike rate with just two wins from 35 runners while 9yo’s perform better with five wins from 30, but it would have yielded an almost 50% LOSS on investment. Three winners from five runners aged six is a positive, as is six winners from 27 who were aged 7.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/19 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
Favourites have a consistent 40% strike rate in the last 10 years and in all runnings but just backing those blind would have resulted in a £3.19 loss. There have been more winners coming from the second and third in the betting combined with nine, which would have yielded £11.08 profit betting the 40 qualifiers. At an ROI of 27.7% you’d have been served well to take on the favourite with the next two in behind rather than just laying the jollies (16% ROI laying favourites vs 27.7% backing second and third in).
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 164 or more – 14/19 (74%) & 6/10 (60%)
There has only been one winner of this race who did not have an OR of 160 or higher so there is no doubt it’s classy horses who take this. The average OR for the first 10 runnings was 172.6 and the average OR for the last 10 runnings was 166.8 although this is pre and post Kauto Star and Imperial Commander. Still, most winners are rated 164 or higher.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 18 and 27 days ago – 11/19 (58%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran between 199 and 253 days ago – 8/19 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Sent off Favourite – 12/19 (63%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Won last time out – 6/19 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran at 3 miles plus – 15/19 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in open company – 18/19 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
Quite a lot to digest from last time out but it’s worth noting that there are two peak windows for when a likely winner will have run last time out. 10 of the 11 who ran inside the last four weeks ran between 20 and 27 days ago, while those coming here fresh, all but one ran between 226 days and 253 days ago.
Winners position in the market last time out has taken a shift with more winners in the last decade NOT being sent off as favourite last time out, and only two of the last seven winners were.
Just a third of winners won last time out and 5 of the 6 were sent off as favourite. And curiously 5 of the 6 were running that current season.
Most winners will have run at 3 miles plus last time out and all but one winner raced in open company last time out too.
Betfair Chase Ante-Post Tips – Matty Sutcliffe’s Early Verdict on Haydock’s Grade 1
This column is the start of a new series of ante-post pieces for GG.co.uk, where I’ll be previewing some of the big upcoming National Hunt races as the early markets come out. We’ll begin with the coveted Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock (Saturday 23rd November), won last year by Venetia Williams’ Royale Pagaille. Headline…
Fri 01 Nov 2024COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 14/19 (74%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 9/14 (64%) & 6/7 (86%)
- First time winners who had RUN at Haydock – 6/11 (55%) & 3/5 (60%)
- First time winners who had WON at Haydock – 2/6 (33%) & 2/3 (67%)
Again, we must remember that there have been many multiple winners of the race so it’s really not surprising to see that most winners had already raced here, and in doing so they’d already won here too. Looking at first-time winners though the figure drops to just over half having already race here and the two who had won, had run here more than once with two wins from two for Bristol De Mai, and three wins from four for Royal Pagaille.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at 3 miles or further – 17/19 (89%) & 10/10 (100%)
All winners of this race in the last decade had already won over at least 3 miles and the two who hadn’t from earlier this century were Kauto Star having his first attempt at the trip and Cue Card.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had more than 10 RUNS over fences – 14/19 (74%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had more than 3 WINS over fences – 16/19 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Again I’ll remind up that there have been many multiple winners of this race and that experience seems to have extended to success. Around 80% of the winners of this contest had more than 10 runs over fences already and even including those who didn’t, close to 90% of winners had four or more wins over fences to their name. There has been only one winner who had just two wins over fences and the other two had three.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 15/19 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won more than one Grade 1 – 12/15 (80%) & 7/9 (78%)
This is a prestigious race and there’s little doubt in it’s worth as a Grade 1 event. It may be early enough in the season that we don’t always have the depth in the race but with most winners already being Grade 1 winners and around 80% of those having more than one Grade 1 to their name, there’s no denying it’s still a race which attracts top level horses. Of those who hadn’t won a Grade 1 prior; the last two were multiple Grade 2 winners so that would be a minimum requirement these days.
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