Six of the last ten favourites have obliged in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase with Willie Mullins responsible for three of them, and similarly to the Supreme, Mullins is responsible for over half of what is a relatively underwhelming turnout of this three mile contest without a sole British runner to boot.
Ballyburn
(Willie Mullins/Paul Townend)
With 8lbs in hand over the field, Ballyburn is in pole position to give Willie Mullins his fourth win in the last ten years of this contest with the step up to three miles destined to suit this relentless galloping son of Flemensfirth. Last season’s Turners winner made a solid start over fences this term over 2m3f at Punchestown, jumping assertively throughout from the front despite taking his usual keen hold, and he was by no means disgraced in the G2 Wayward Lad when beating by Sir Gino, jumping marginally left throughout and almost coming down after walking through the last. It was a testament to his ability that he was able to remain that close after this nish to what could easily be one of Nicky Henderson’s best chasers in recent seasons, and the thirty three length third has since come out and won a C2 handicap at Doncaster, with the faller Rubaud, who couldn’t live with the gallop, winning in G2 company since. By Flemensrth out on an Old Vic mare who’s produced multiple stayers, everything points to Ballyburn as relishing this test of stamina providing his keenness doesn’t hinder him too badly.
Dancing City
(Willie Mullins/Danny Mullins)
Dancing City has something to find with Ballyburn on form, but he at least holds an assurance of stamina in his arsenal having won over 2m7f on chase debut before following up over 3m1f at Naas, making all in good style with his jumping professional throughout. He was made to work late on by Bioluminescence, who couldn’t frank the form next time out, but he took his form over three miles to 31111 with the sole defeat a seven length third in last seasons Albert Bartlett, to which he overturned that form with the second at Aintree, and any stamina weaknesses in Ballyburn’s arsenal will surely be exposed by Dancing City.
Gorgeous Tom
(Henry De Bromhead/Darragh O’Keeffe)
Gorgeous Tom has something to find on from with Ballyburn given he was behind Croke Park in the Drinmore last time out, but his two defeats of Monbeg Park at least read well given that ones now rated 149 which would at least bring him into frame contention for this race. He’s another we’re yet to see stepping up to three miles, but the ground will at least be in his favour to counteract any stamina issues for all he’s more often that not shaped as if a step up in trip will suit, not least when staying on behind Croke Park in the G1 Drinmore.
Better Days Ahead
(Gordon Elliott/Jack Kennedy)
Last year’s Martin Pipe winner Better Days Ahead is another who has something to find on form with Ballyburn having been beaten by Croke Park this season, but he showed his abundance of stamina when beating last year’s Albert Bartlett winner last time out in a G2 Navan Novice Chase. He added to his debut win over fences there, having beat the Supreme winner Slade Steel, so given he’s taken the scalp of two prior festival winners then he can’t be discounted entirely despite needing to find something on form.
Rest of the field
Lecky Watson has already bettered his hurdles form from last season given he’s 2/2 over fences, including when beaten Down Memory Lane the same distance at leading British Arkle hope L’eau Du Sud did last time out despite some influent jumping around Punchestown. Chasing has seemed to settle him much better this season, which bodes well for the step back up to three miles. Last years Albert Bartlett winner Stellar Story would have to become the first horse since Bobs Worth in 2011 to record the Bartlett/RSA double and though he was well beaten by Croke Park in G1 company on Boxing Day, that was sandwich by success in the Florida Pearl and a neck second to Better Days Ahead giving him 5lbs, with an RPR of 153 somewhat entitling him too have frame chances here. He evidently has stamina to boot, though would arguably want it plenty softer.
Quai De Bourbon has been desperate for a step up in trip throughout his career, with a staying on two length third in the Martin Pipe suggesting a trip over fences will bring out the best in him. He was beaten by Dee Capo at Leopardstown, who was stuffed twenty five lengths by Ballyburn and a further five lengths by Dancing City, so Quai De Bourbon looks to have his work cut out in that respect. There was some promise to take from his win in a Gowran Park Beginners Chase last time out over 2m4f, but he jumped right under pressure there and that wouldn’t bode well for this contest.
Verdict
BALLYBURN is only going to improve for this three mile trip and given he already has the measure of the majority of these through collateral pieces of form, he should prove a tough nut to crack with the field having 8lbs to find. I don’t think his keenness deteriorates his competitiveness, as his natural low head carriage often flatters to deceive in that respect and if anything, it keeps him focused on the task ahead. If he was an exuberant jumper and a keen goer then perhaps I’d be wary, but his economical, galloping and relentless nature puts him in good stead for a staying contest of this nature and he can notch up a second successive Cheltenham Festival win before going on to be Gold Cup contender next March.
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