This 3-mile staying chase is for novices’ who have Gold Cup aspirations and we’ve seen the likes of Lord Windermere, Bobs Worth and Denman doing the double this century.
It’s typically quite a competitive race so I’ve looked at all runnings this century and from the last decade to see if we can pin down the traits needed to land this.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 7 years old
- No winning second favourite since 2012 and 2000 before that
- Respect runners priced 4/1 or shorter (profitable to back blind)
- Top-rated runners who are sent off favourite have overachieved in the last decade
- Will have finish Top 2 last time out
- Will have already raced at Cheltenham
- Will have already run and won at 23-25 furlongs
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 8yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
7-year-olds sit at a 14% strike rate this century compared to just 2% for 6-year-olds and 6% for 8-year-olds. In the last decade, it’s 13% for the 7-year-olds, 6% for the 6-year-olds and 11% for the 8-year-olds.
No age is profitable to back blind in the last decade although the 1 winning 5yo from 8 runners this century is still showing a £7 profit, and it might take some time before we get that many more runners of the age.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Second favourites – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Priced 4/1 or shorter – 11/24 (46%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind in the last decade for a 68% ROI and while still profitable this century, the ROI drops to just under 10%. Second favourites are winless since 2012 and the last one before that was in 2000, so they look to be ones to avoid over the long term.
There have been 14 runners this century priced 9/4 or shorter and they’ve produced 6 winners and show a very small profit but if you bring in all runners priced 4/1 or shorter you’d find 5 more winners and a few pounds more of profit. In the last decade, runners priced 4/1 or shorter have shown a £7.75 profit for a 40% ROI.
RATINGS – (Since 2008 as not all runners has a registered OR prior)
- Winners with an OR of 150 or more – 11/17 (46%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who were the Top-Rated runner – 7/17 (41%) & 6/10 (60%)
In recent years, we’ve seen many more winners holding an OR of 150 or higher coming into this but it’s not always the highest rated runner who lands the spoils. Since 2008, when Alberta’s Run won as the highest rated runner, there was a lull of 6 consecutive years where the highest rated runner did NOT win the race. In the last decade, we’ve seen 6 of the 10 winners being the highest rated runner which has returned an ROI of 15%. This can be hiked up though, with 5 of the 6 winners being sent off as favourite with only Delta Work failing to land the spoils back in 2019. This brings the ROI up to 104% to SP alone, so in short, top-rated runners who are favourites perform well above expectations.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed Top 2 last time out – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (100%)
Most winners won last time out but that alone won’t make you a profit to back blind. In the last decade, 9 winners placed top 2 last time out and the other winner fell. With only one winner placing outside the Top 2 last time out this century (aside from the faller) who placed third, it’s impossible to forgive runners who placed down the field last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 19/24 (79%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 11/19 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners had already run at Cheltenham before, and all the last 15 winners had ticked this box. Most of those runners had won at Cheltenham too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 23-25F – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at 23-25F – 18/21 (86%) & 9/9 (100%)
All winners of this race had run over at least 2m 5f before now, but most had run at 23-25 furlongs and won too.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 2 or more WINS over fences – 16/24 (67%) & 9/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 3-5 RUNS over fences – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who were UNBEATEN over fences – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners of this race will already have 2 wins over fences and the majority of winners had between 3 and 5 runs over fences. Two of the three exceptions had just 2 runs and both came in the last decade, each was unbeaten. There have been just 5 winners this century who were unbeaten over fences and 4 of those came in the last decade.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had already won a Grade 2 or better – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
8 of the last 10 winners had already won a Grade 2 or better but only around half of the winners had already tasted Grade 1 success before now.
LAST FESTIVAL
- Ran – 12/24 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Won – 5/12 (41%) & 3/7 (43%)
- Placed – 9/12 (75%) & 6/7 (86%)
6 of the 12 winners who ran at last years’ Festival came from the Albert Bartlett with three of those being the winner of that race. We’ve had a Martin Pipe and a Pertemps winner come here to land the prize and 4 runners up in the Turners, Coral Cup and Bumper have landed this the race too.
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