Day three of Newmarket’s end-of-month meeting features its headline acts, with the 35-runner Cambridgeshire following a pair of juvenile Group 1s. Matty Sutcliffe is on hand, with three advised in the big handicap below.
Published: 4.55pm, Wednesday, September 25th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:15 Newmarket – British Stallion Studs EBF “Jersey Lily” Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo) – Santa Savana 14/1 1pt EW 4 places
An opening mark of 85 looks a tad harsh at first glance for SANTA SAVANA, who’s yet to post an RPR higher than 83 in her four career efforts, but the last three of those came in listed/G3 company and she wasn’t disgraced when a 5L 6th in the Dick Poole Stakes off an 80 day break last time out.
She finished 3/4L behind a 95 rated filly there, with two other 95 sorts and a 97 ahead of her and an 89 rated filly in behind, so based on that form her opening mark might not be all that harsh. It’s worth noting that three of the last six winners of this race prepped in group company, including the ’21 winner who was 8th in the Dick Poole prior.
The daughter of Havana Grey made a smart winning debut on soft ground at Leicester, drawing 2 1/2L clear of Seaplane who I think is a smart colt for the Cole’s, and was originally entered at Royal Ascot for the Chesham but wasn’t seen again until beaten a neck in a hot looking 10K maiden at Ascot earlier this month. Jorge Alvares was third in that Leicester maiden, and has since finished a length 4th in the valuable Goffs Yearling Stakes at York now rated 82.
She was then unsuited by her track position of the far side in the Listed Empress Fillies Stakes when beaten six lengths, but the form HAs worked out well given the fourth is rated 93, the third is rated 104, the second 96 and the winner 106. On the balance of that form and her Dick Poole effort, this opening mark appears more lenient than not and this drop into nursery company on ground likely to be soft enough for her can see her in a better light. She was potentially not quite right when beaten 15L at Sandown over this distance given she had 80 days off subsequently, so I’m not all that worried about her going back up in trip as she shaped like it would be fine on debut and her dam was a multiple winner on soft ground over a mile. Her usual hood returns, and Neil Callan is jocked up who is 1-1 for the yard in the last 12 months.
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1:50 Newmarket – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo) – Law Of Design 14/1 1pt WIN
Only four geldings have run in the Royal Lodge within the last ten renewals, with the record reading 1155 from three renewals. That suggests that geldings can have a significant advantage over the colts, and brings LAW OF DESIGN well into contention.
The son of first season sire and 2020 Arc winner Sottsass was gelded in February, but wasn’t seen on the racetrack until August. Brian Meehan is a very patient, shrewd operator who knows when he has a smart sort (insert trumpet with Rashabar), and this unfurnished, rangy gelding has evidently needed plenty of time to grow and mature into a more rounded thoroughbred.
He caught the eye when a tenderly handled third on debut on the July course last month, staying on under hands and heels before clocking the quickest final furlong (highest finishing speed percentage of 103.23%), suggesting he won’t be seen to better effect until tackling further.
Though that form could’ve worked out better, he posted a smart effort next time out in a 16K four runner novice on soft ground at Ascot, travelling strongly throughout and putting the race to bed with relative ease when drawing two and half lengths clear of subsequent winner Mr Fantastic, with the 90-rated Angel Hunter back in third.
Though yet to be allotted an official mark, on the basis of the last time out he likely wouldn’t have all that much to find with the likes of Luther, Wimbledon Hawkeye and Royal Patronage, who are rated between 103-109. That trio are untested on soft ground, whereas Law Of Design cut through it at Ascot and should it not dry up on Saturday, that will prove to be decisive for Meehan’s runner, though the yard form could admittedly be better.
Cambridgeshire Handicap Tips 2024: Back This 50/1 Shot To Land Newmarket Glory
One of the toughest betting puzzles of the Flat season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday as the 2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap attracts a hugely competitive field bidding for the 1m 1f prize. With 35 runners declared for the contest at Flat HQ it’s sure to be a devilishly difficult punting assignment, but our in-house tipster…
Thu 26 Sep 2024
2:40 Haydock Sky Bet Acca Freeze Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-88) – Flaccianello 16/1 1pt EW 4 places
The drop back to six furlongs can see FLACCIANELLO back in the winners enclosure for the first time since last September. The daughter of Cotai Glory has come up short in three efforts over seven furlongs of late, though wasn’t entirely disgraced in a similar contest at the course when beaten three lengths last time out.
He was last seen over six furlongs when beaten 3L in a C2 0-105 handicap on soft ground at Pontefract in July with the 3rd and 6th backing that form up. The key piece of form over this distance came at York on soft ground the giving 11lbs to Alfa Kellenic for a 2L defeat, with that one now rated 25lbs higher after three subsequent wins including the Ayr Silver Cup last time out. Queen Of Mougins and Star Of Lady M would in behind that pair at York, and have gone up 13lbs and 23lbs respectively
Though untested on heavy ground, She has an excellent record on soft ground over six furlongs (11424) and given she’s 6lbs lower than her opening seasonal mark, this looks the perfect opportunity to get back on track with first time cheekpieces equipped.
3:40 Newmarket – bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Balmacara 1pt WIN SP + Crack Shot 50/1 0.5pt EW + Balmacara Mythical Guest 100/1 0.5pt EW 6 places
BALMACARA has been given a dire draw in stall one, and given he’s priced anywhere between 9-1 and 25-1, I’ll advise taking SP as I’d imagine his true price will be around 14/1 come the off based on that draw.
If there was a market for ‘first home in the group’ he’d surely be a good thing, as I’ve no doubt that this is the perfect race for him but that draw has nearly put me off entirely. That said, we’ve seen it on many occasions in the last couple seasons of bad draws not being a hindrance, not least Rebel Territory bolting up from stall one in the Victoria Cup, so if we think Balmacara is good enough, then I’m happy to roll the dice.
The gelded son of New Bay racked up a soft ground double early on this season, latterly destroying the field under a 6lbs penalty at Doncaster, though came up short when too keen and not handling the track in a Listed contest at Epsom.
He resumed his progressive ways in a first time hood when beaten two lengths by the equally progressive Persica, pulling 13 lengths clear of the third with the winner subsequently rated 12lbs higher having placed in G3 company before winning the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr last weekend. That form alone suggests he’s well handicapped off 101 here, and he bettered that RPR (107, career best) when beaten a neck at Sandown, finishing ahead of Involvement who’d previously ran creditably in Listed company at Deauville behind the smart Ombudsman.
Balmacara drops back to 1m1f, and this galloping, big field scenario on soft ground will undoubtedly play in to his strengths. There’s some slim hope that the draw might not be a huge hindrance, as when this was last ran on soft ground, the winner came from stall three (courtesy of our editor!).
He made a promising debut toward the back end of last season when a green third to Zoum Zoum at 28/1m with the winner going on to take a listed contest at Saint Cloud. Kikkuli was a short head in front of Balmacara and is now rated 112 having fared well in multiple group contests, and perhaps the best bit of form of all in here is that Economics was in fourth that day, who’s now rated 123 after his Irish Champion Stakes win. Two year old form shouldn’t be taken as gospel, but I’m more inclined to translate the late season form as they’re essentially more developed as a physical, and were always going to be a better 3yo.
Connections will have worked back from last year’s five length defeat in the Cambridgeshire with CRACK SHOT, who put up a fairly bold effort on only his sixth racecourse start. He was a progressive three year old last term, finishing close up behind the smart Botanical at Hamilton before taking a competitive C3 handicap at Newbury on his first try against his elders.
The son of Kingman reappeared this term with a comfortable win on seasonal debut, beating the subsequent Bunbury Cup winner Aalto by a length. He went backwards from that win, but he was sent off favourite for the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot and not entirely disgraced, and he shaped as if coming back to form when beaten two lengths at Goodwood behind Godwinson who’s prominent in the market for this race.
He’s certainly overpriced with the latter mentioned particularly given the experiences of those big field contests will be worth its weight in gold the time around, and he’s only a pound higher with Jamie Spencer booked who’s won this contest twice.
George Margarson’s admirable Ropey Guest was retired earlier this season, and his handler had a excellent knack for getting him to place in some big contests. Four-year-old MYTHICAL GUEST can fill that void, having quietly progressed through the handicapping ranks this season.
The son of Make Believe was 0-6 prior to his gelding operation, but retuned this season with a facile success at Yarmouth. He backed that effort up two starts later when running away with 1m2F course handicap in May, beating the subsequent Royal Hunt Cup 4th (1st in group of 10) Daysofourlives, who latterly beat Liberty Lane in a competitive handicap at the St Leger Festival earlier this month, now rated 7lbs higher.
Mythical Guest posted a career best RPR of 92 next time out when beaten 1/2L off top-weight down in trip on the July course behind a 8/15F who was subsequently bought by Wathnan Racing, with three subsequent winners in behind.
He hasn’t been entirely disgraced in four subsequent efforts, and he ran an excellent race at 25/1 when beaten too lengths over the Cambridgeshire trip, finishing a length behind Roi De France who is currently 13/2 in places for this race.
While he lacks the flashy profile of some to the fore of the market, he’s wildly overpriced particularly with Roi De France, and is crucially one of just five course winners in this contest. I would’ve preferred a draw slightly higher than fifteen, but he’ll have plenty of cover in the middle of the track and if the ground does come up soft, then that shouldn’t hinder this Make Believe gelding, whose progeny tend to handle soft ground with aplomb.
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