Held on the final day of Newmarket’s three-day Cambridgeshire Meeting, this handicap is still one of the biggest field races of the season. Run over 1m and 1f on Newmarket’s Rowley mile, it has been in place since 1839, and Dave Young seeks the latest winner on the illustrious roll of honour by going through the trends.
I’ve taken a look at every winner this century and compared it with the last 10 runnings to work out what it takes to land this historic handicap.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be no older than 6
- Preferably drawn in the top half and bonus if drawn in stall 25 or higher
- Ran at either 8 furlongs or 10 furlongs last time out
- Placed in a handicap last time out, preferably a Class 2
- Priced 14/1 or shorter last time out
- Should have won this season
- Should have between 3 and 5 career wins
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4yo – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
Fair enough balance across the ages for this handicap with unexposed younger horses and some elders taking the spoils. It’s apparent though that you don’t want to have a horse older than six on your minds.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 40/1 or Bigger – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
With an average of 32 runners in this race it’s no surprise to see a low number of winning favourites. What is more important is to look at the ROI this century of 10% if you were to split £1 each year on the favourite or favourites. It’s a minus 45% figure though in the last 10 years so it’s not a get rich quick method for sure. We’ve actually had more winners at 40/1 this century and three times as many in the last ten years, but you’re going to have more horses at those prices than you will priced as favourite so all told, price should have no real bearing on your shortlist.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 15/24 (63%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 9/24 (37%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Stall 1-12 – 8/24 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Stall 13-24 – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Stall 25+ – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
With such a big field contesting this race it felt worthwhile to split the draw from not only top and bottom halves, but into top, middle and bottom too. From the top/bottom split the top comes out best at 63% this century and 80% in the last ten. When we look at the three-tier approach, stalls 25+ are 42% this century and 60% in the last decade. Therefore, preference is certainly for the top half.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 8-06 to 8-12 – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
I appreciate the measurement above resulting in 50% accuracy means that as many don’t fit the mould as do, but a 7lbs window of 8 stone 6 to 8 stone 12 does sit as a small enough window of interest that should you need to whittle down your list, this should help.
OFFICIAL RATING (OR)
- Winners with an OR of 99 or less – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
The average OR this century is 97 but those with an OR of 99 or less account for around two-thirds of the winners. This is another measure that when coupled with the weight band above would reduce the field significantly.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Placed – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Abt 8f – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Abt 10f – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 21 days or less – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 35 days or less – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Priced 14/1 or shorter – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Considering the size of the field, I was slightly taken by the amount of placed horses last time out going on to win the race at around 60% so that would be something I’d consider. They should have run at either side of the 9f trip last time out, the others ran at 7f. As for time since they last ran; it’s a real mixed bag as we have a few horses who came here off a 100+ day absence and many who had a quick prep off a layoff too so I suspect the number of qualifier in each time band would be close to the % of winners ratio so I’m not inclined to worry when they were last seen. Looking at the SP from their last run we have 90% of winners priced 14/1 or shorter last time out and six of the last ten were priced 100/30 or shorter. This looks relevant and I’d suggest that while we have 30% or less of last time out winners landing this, many were expected to run well last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 3/12 (25%) & 1/5 (20%)
Have the winner this century and in the last decade had run here, so as many hadn’t as had. Winning form runs at about 20% in recent renewals so I’m not sure there’s too much in this.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 9f – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at about 9f – 6/10 (60%) & 3/6 (50%)
With his being a relatively niche distance it’s no surprise that the winners having run at the trip before sits around the 50/50 mark. What is more telling is that those who did run at the trip more than half had won too, so it’s probably close to being pedantic, but I’d favour winners at this trip so they’d get bonus points instead of eliminating the others.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 21/24 (100%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 6+ runs this season – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 0 wins this season – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 1 or more wins this season – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
The majority of winners will have three or more runs this season and probably somewhere between 4-7 runs would be the ideal range. 70% or more have won a race this season, two of the six who didn’t, raced either once or not at all this season.
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