The most prestigious bumper in the NH Racing calendar and given it’s for horses with not much experience I wonder how much we can trend the profile of a winner.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared to the last decade to see if we just back Willie’s in the bumper, or if there’s more to it.
KEY TRENDS
- Second favourites outperform favourites but respect runners priced 13/8-9/4
- Will have won last time out
- Won’t have run at Cheltenham but if has, then should have won there
- Look to runners with a season debut RPR of 110 or higher
- Look to runners with a peak season RPR of 126 or higher
- You can just back Willie’s in the bumper blind and show profit
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 5yo – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 6yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
5-year-olds operate at a 5% strike rate compared to the number of runners while 6-year-olds operate at 6%. This is consistent across both this century and in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Second favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Priced 13/8 to 9/4 – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
Favourites are outperformed by second favourites both this century and in the last decade and it’s been profitable to back the second favourites blind. It’s shown a 56% ROI this century and a 74% ROI in the last decade.
There have only been 6 runners this century priced 13/8 to 9/4, and we may not get one this year, but they have provided 4 winners for a 100% ROI. In the last decade the record is 3 from 4 for a 125% ROI. Should one get hammered into this price band, take note.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Last ran 31-60 days ago – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
All bar one winner this century won last time out, and that horse placed second on their last run. Most horses come here after a win, but it accounts for around 70% of the field but provides almost 100% of the winners.
Again, most runners come here from their last run being 31-60 days ago but most winners do too, so it’s worth taking note of that.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had NOT run at Cheltenham – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who were unbeaten this season – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with a debut RPR of 110+ – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with a peak RPR of 126+ – 18/24 (75%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners had not yet been to Prestbury Park but of the 4 who had, 3 had won here too. Most winners were unbeaten this season.
Peak RPR’s of 126 or higher have been true of all the last 10 winners and 18 this century. Around three-quarters of winners have posted a 110 or higher RPR on debut this season.
WILLIE MULLINS
- Winners – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Patrick Mullins Ridden – 5/15 (33%) & 2/8 (25%)
Gordon Elliott is the only other trainer to have won this race more than once this century and backing Willie Mullins blind has shown a 24% ROI this century although a small loss in the last decade.
Willie Mullins & Patrick Mullins have teamed up 15 times since 2008 and produced 5 winners with an ROI of 156% to SP.
Willie Mullins runners without Patrick on board are 8 from 89 with a 16% ROI this century but since 2008 they are 4 from 64 for a 5% ROI.
Essentially you can just back Willie’s in the bumper, but Patrick does know best.
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