With plenty of odds-on favourites beaten in this race, and many of those being long odds-on too, it begs the question; why is it so hard to win the Champion Chase?
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see how straightforward finding the winner of this race might just be.
KEY TRENDS
- Age has no major bias in this race, but preference is for 7yo’s and 9yo’s
- Most winners come from the front two in the market
- Should be rated 165 or higher and preferably 170+
- Winning last time out isn’t essential but will have run between 31 and 60 days ago
- Should have run here and should have won here too
- Will have 5 or more wins over fences
- Preferably already a multiple Grade 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
10-year-olds are the only age that you could have made money backing blind, but only in the last decade. Following age alone won’t see you make a profit and in the last decade the strike rate for 7-9-year-olds is at 12.3% vs 12.5% for the others. It was 12% and 9% respectively this century.
Just one winner aged 11 from the 18 that have tried this century but, for Energumene fans, it’s a positive that it was Moscow Flyer who was a previous race winner.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2nd Favourites – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
With El Fabiolo beat last year at 2/9, Defi Du Seuil at 2/5, Chacun Pour Soi at 8/13 and Douvan at 2/9 it’s been a bit of a graveyard for short, short ones in this race recently. Betting all favourites blind is a loss maker both this century and in the last decade but for around £4 in each timeframe. Second favourites though show a £16 profit in the last decade which helps bring the century figure to just over £15 too.
Are we due a change in fortune for favourites in this race though, or is the curse still to be lifted?
RATINGS – (Three missing an OR from 2003, 2005, 2006)
- Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 15/21 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 10/21 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
Given this is a Championship Race it’s no surprise to see that most winners are rated 165 or higher and often in recent years, the winner had been 170 or higher. Worth remembering that we’ve had plenty of beaten favourites in this race too, so there is a bit of depth behind the market leader should they falter, and it takes a good one to win this regardless.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/24 (58%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran between 31 and 60 days ago – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners are a loss maker and with recent renewals most winners were beaten last on their last run. Given the racing calendar is set up with a few options to launch into this race, it’s no surprise that most winners last ran between 31 and 60 days ago. Last time out will not really help find the winner, but at least it’s good to know that you can come into this race with a chance even if things didn’t quite go right on your latest run.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 22/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 15/22 (70%) & 7/9 (78%)
Most winners of this race have already run at Cheltenham and really should have won here too.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 8 or FEWER hurdle runs – 19/24 (79%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 8 or MORE runs over fences – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 5 or MORE wins over fences – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most Champion Chase winners spent little time over hurdles with most having 8 or fewer spins over the smaller obstacles. 80% of the winners had run 8 or times over fences but those who hadn’t held a strike rate of 70% or more and had at least 5 chase wins.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
Grade 1 form is essential now and winners are more than likely to have won more than one, but ALL winners must have won at least a Grade 2 before now.
RACE WINNERS RECORD (Winner/Runners this Century)
- Arkle – 9/21 (43%)
- Tingle Creek – 7/18 (39%)
- Dublin Chase (Tied Cottage up to 2018) – 3/14 (21%)
The Dublin Chase was introduced for the Dublin Racing Festival taking over from the Tied Cottage Chase which was a Grade 2. Still if we combine those as the last big Irish target into the Champion Chase there’s been no winner of both races since 2010. Altior was the last Tingle Creek winner to take the Champion Chase the same season while Arkle winners perform the best in terms of wins to runs ratio with Put The Kettle On the most winners of both in the 2020 then 2021 Festivals.
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