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Champion Hurdle Trends – Dave Young Previews Opening Day Showpiece by the Stats

The Champion Hurdle is the first championship race of the Cheltenham Festival and it’s been one with many repeat winners. This year we hope to see Constitution Hill regain his crown but who his main rival will be is yet to be decided with both Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead having other options and State Man beaten twice this season.

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I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see how straightforward finding the winner of this race might just be.

  • Will be aged 6 to 8-years-old
  • Respect favourites, they are profitable to back blind this century and the last decade
  • Will have an OR of 160+ and preferably 165 or higher (including mares’ allowance)
  • Expected to have won last time out
  • Preferably has already won at Cheltenham
  • Desirable to have won 70% or more of their hurdle races
  • Will have already won more than one Grade 1

AGE

  • 5yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
  • 6yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
  • 7yo – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
  • 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 9yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)

We know that 5-year-olds have a tough time at this level and typically they’re ex juveniles stepping into open company. While we’ve had a couple of winners that age this century, they hold the lowest strike rate of any winning age at 3% this century and 5% in the last decade.

7-year-olds have the best strike rate of any winning age but while it’s not been profitable to back all 7-year-olds blind in the last decade, it has been this century with 33/1, 16/1 and 12/1 winners.

PRICE

  • Favourites – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)

Favourites have a great record in this race, and it’s been profitable to back them blind over the last decade and this century. It’s only around £6.50 worth of profit but this isn’t typically the race to go searching for a big-priced winner.

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RATINGS – (pre 2008 there are only two measured with an OR)

  • Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 15/17 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 12/17 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
  • Season Peak RPR of 165 or more – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)

Including the mares’ allowance, most winners will have an OR of 160 or higher and that can be pushed up to 165 in most cases.

LAST TIME OUT

  • Won last time out – 20/24 (83%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Ran between 24 and 51 days ago – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)

All of the last 10 winners and most this century had won last time out. The majority of winners also last ran between 24 and 51 days ago. This is unlikely to reduce the field by much, however preference must be given to last time out winners.

COURSE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)

Most winners of this race have already run at Cheltenham and winning course form is desirable.

HURDLE CAREER FORM

  • Winners who had 10 or MORE hurdle runs – 17/24 (71%) & 5/10 (50%)
  • Winners who had won 70% or MORE of their hurdle races – 15/24 (63%) & 10/10 (100%)

In recent years we’ve seen as many runners with less than 10 runs over hurdles as we have with 10 or more, but that wasn’t always the case. We’ve also seen all of the last 12 winners having won 70% or more of their hurdle races, whereas this wasn’t essential in the dozen running’s before.

GRADED FORM

  • Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)

Grade 1 form is essential now and winners are more than likely to have won more than one.

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