The penultimate entry for this season’s Ante-Post Book for 2024 but with some incredible action over the festive period there will be lots to digest in entry number eight. For now, I’ll run through another selection for consideration while covering the action from last weekend with a quick look forward to what’s coming up.
IMPERVIOUS – MARES’ CHASE @ 7/1 (William Hill, 888 Sport)
I was toying with waiting for an actual entry for IMPERVIOUS before putting her up. However, trainer Colm Murphy provided an update this morning which followed on from positive mentions back in October:
“Oh she’s back all right, she’s herself and she’s done well. She’s a big, strong mare now.
“He (owner McManus) keeps to himself, himself and Frankie (Berry) make sure she’s wanted for nothing or needed nothing, or for the best of anything I could only imagine.
“I’m not actually sure (of her return). She won’t make Christmas, I don’t mind saying, it will come a bit quick. I’m hoping the new year now will favour us, but I can’t even tell you where to start her yet. But she will be all systems go.
“We will see, she’ll be doing a few serious pieces of work and we’ll have a better idea after then. But fingers crossed, it’s been so far, so good.”
With all ante-post betting there’s an amount that has to be taken on trust: trust that updates are frank and honest, trust that their campaign will see them peak in the target race, and trust that things will be ok between now and then for everything such as fitness, wellbeing and setbacks.
Impervious certainly takes one of the bigger leaps of faith to make a case for, but she missed all of last season having been around a 2/1 shot to retain her title in the summer of 2023. Today she’s available at a top price of 7/1 and that patient approach will hopefully be rewarded with a better than ever mare on the other side of it. She recorded an RPR of 159 at Cheltenham 2023 followed by a 162 at Punchestown. Both were as a 7yo but it is key to remember they were also as a novice. She is entitled to improve with age, now she’s facing open company which will make things a little harder, but she’s likely to be facing the same old faces with Dinoblue well accounted for on her second chase start, and many behind her in both Cheltenham and Punchestown 2023.
JP McManus also has Limerick Lace to go alongside Dinoblue with that pair vying for favouritism, but the former was sent to a Grand National after and was in receipt of 5lbs from Dinoblue at the last Festival where the ground came up in her favour and she was very well backed the night before.
Dinoblue would rate a bigger threat in my opinion with her form in defeat behind El Fabiolo, Banbridge and Energumene much stronger form than almost any other mare. She was 10lbs wrong with Energumene in the Hilly Way so while that form is all at 2 miles, she stayed well enough last year to suggest she’s got this race in her.
But while it’s going back two years now, I still can’t shake the feeling that Impervious left when dispatching of Dinoblue with ease over her preferred minimum trip and Colm Murphy’s mare looked ever better when stepping up to the middle distance. I’d still hope that she’s as good if not better than Dinoblue, so while we’ve seen her on the track and we haven’t seen Impervious for 18 months, the price discrepancy feels too big, and I think she is worth considering for another ante-post entry.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Friday’s highlights came at Prestbury Park with Day 1 of the Cheltenham December meeting, and while there was just one winning favourite, we saw some informative efforts as far as I’m concerned.
Country Mile took the opener in a race with the well-regarded That’s Nice and Wingmen in rivalry. The winner looked like he could be a County Hurdle type with just a 7lb rise for his effort making him a 138-rated horse and Wingmen ran well for his first trip overseas but undoubtedly wants further. He might end up a Martin Pipe type for the spring, if he’s able to get in.
Jango Baie took the five-runner novices’ chase which was probably worthy of being a Graded race and he was well supported overnight but still SP’d at 7/4. He wasn’t as keen as I was expecting after a break and jumped really well so overall he impressed. Springwell Bay was giving the winner 8lbs and certainly travelled much better at this trip than he did over three miles last time out. I’d still think he can stay, but he would appreciate this type of gallop going forward so there’s races to be won with him despite turning eight in a couple of weeks. Caldwell Potter was okay, but ultimately a little disappointing. I thought his recent run and quick turnaround was by design but Paul Nicholls stated pre-race it was an afterthought which meant I didn’t expect him to win so not all was lost in defeat. However, he’s rising seven now and both chase starts would pitch him as a sub-150 horse, so he’s got a long way to go if he’s going to live up to the huge price tag that proceeds him. A drop back in trip might be the answer and I hope we find out sooner rather than later.
Mirabad took the 2m1f handicap hurdle under a cracking ride from Luke Scott and handful behind finished like horses who could win of their marks with Bo Zenith most notable having been supported from 25/1+ down to 7/1. He was in against his owner-mate Willmount who fell early on but drifted like he had no chance anyway so I think that pair are worth keeping in mind going forward.
Chianti Classico weakened quickly up the hill having hit the front which didn’t look characteristic but in the moment you wondered if the weight was just too much. He was dismounted quickly after and soon reported lame with a very serious tendon issue which may never see him race again. Fingers crossed he’s going ok, and he’s already achieved so much that he has nothing to prove.
Stumptown won cosily in the Cross Country Handicap and is favourite for the equivalent in March. That is rightly so, and it was visibly the type of performance where I suspect most people watching live were thinking, “that’s the Cross Country winner” a furlong from home. I suspect he’ll only shorten from now on in, but with it being a handicap I still want to keep my powder dry in the race until nearer the event.
Long Draw really thrived on the step up in trip in the finale when very well backed into 3/1 in the end. Favourite Doyen Quest disappointed but probably has just been found by the handicapper now. The same might be true for Long Draw now though.
Staying in Cheltenham for Saturday we saw an eye-catching performance once again from Transmission but this time in defeat. I thought prior to this race he’s a New National Hunt Chase type and I think even more so now. Kim Muir may be an option, but I think the further he goes the better he is so while he can need encouragement during a race, it’ll no doubt be easier to latch on in a National Hunt Chase than it would in a Kim Muir but he’s interesting wherever he ends up.
Libberty Hunter cruised to the front in winning the 2m handicap chase and while it’s not all about Cheltenham, I did wonder if they might have this as a prep for a bigger prized handicap after. May still be the case, but he’s now rated 151 so if he was able to snatch another decent handicap he’ll be pushing Graded level, so it’ll be interesting how he’s campaigned in the next few months.
Skyjack Hijack’s bubble was burst but only in the relevance of wondering if he may be a Festival contender. Looked a solid enough race in whole and I’d say there’s a few decent prospects that will come out of this. Jet Blue won the race and was very impressive in doing so. Western Knight rallied and just didn’t quite look as quick as the winner but certainly looks one who will improve for a fence next season.
Majborough made a seamless transition to fences after landing the Triumph Hurdle last season. He jumped like a novice so there’s certainly improvement to be made but there was one jump around five out that was as good as any decent 2-miler I’ve seen which excites the prospect of this horse being able to improve lots from this debut effort. He quickened away impressively off the back of the last, like a good horse. There’s an element of concern how he’ll jump in a furious 2-mile event but that’s being pedantic and he’s certainly a very nice novice chaser for the season. I’d say it was enough to suggest that Ballyburn would be the Brown Advisory horse for this season, but with those slight jumping question marks, I think all options are still open for him.
Sunday was the return of jumps racing in Windsor and it was great to see. I thought Vincenzo might be a winner again next time out as this was his chasing debut and while I love Tedley, he might a bit off a rascal. Vincenzo was well on top in the finish though, and it’ll be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts as he’s probably into the 130’s now.
We also saw a new Champion Bumper favourite in the making with Patrick Mullins riding for Gordon Elliott in the last in Navan. Kalypso’chance was a bit keen and did have to be asked for an effort but bounded away near the line in the fashion of an above average horse. Is he a Champion Bumper winner in waiting though? I’m not so sure, and I think more is being made of previous winners being Sir Gerhard and Envoi Allen rather than looking at the Gigginstown winners, The Enabler, Uhtred, Rapid Escape, Samcro and Death Duty, none of whom even ventured to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
Fridays sees Day 1 of Ascot’s two-day Christmas meeting with plenty of good races but highlighted by the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase. The card closes with a Listed bumper too which often attracts some of the very best British bumper prospects. On Saturday at Ascot, it’s the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle which was disappointing to see no entry for Lucky Place. Alarm bells started to rings for him given I put him up as a lively outsider for the Stayers Hurdle this season. Those with cash-out options who followed me in may want to consider using those, but at your own discretion.
Ascot then has two big Handicaps to close the card with the Silver Cup and Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle both Premier Handicaps and the Graduation Chase earlier in meeting looks a potential belter too.
Some nice racing too in Haydock with a Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle the feature but the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase prior will be a cracking race too.
Over in Ireland, Thurles has a Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle of their own, but looking at the early entries you’d be surprised in the Festival winner was in there.
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