Another week closer to Christmas and another week closer to Cheltenham! We’ve seen the first deluge of wet weather, and it’s produced some interesting clashes with most notably the best John Durkan field in history producing the best John Durkan race in history too. Before I run through my thoughts on the week just gone, I’m going to add another ante-post selection for your consideration, and it wouldn’t have been on my mind before this weekend so let me explain why I think now is the time to strike.
LUCKY PLACE – STAYERS’ HURDLE @ 25/1 (BET365, 20/1 Generally)
With any ante-post being struck at this stage of the season you really do want to be sure of their targets, or you want to have a big enough price that it’s worth taking the plunge regardless. However, in this instance it’s not entirely certain that this horse ends up in the Stayers’ Hurdle come March, but if he doesn’t, he’ll have shown enough between now and then to suggest he wouldn’t have gone close anyway, so it just saves the pain on the day. That said, I think this horse has the scope to improve a whole lot this season and of course he will need to if he’s any chance of challenging one of the festival bankers that is Teahupoo.
We’ll see the reigning champion out this weekend in the Hatton’s Grace facing off against Lossiemouth and that’ll be the only time we see him before his title defence which means unless he’s beaten on Sunday, he’s only going to shorten for the Festival. He’s officially rated 164 which is 19lbs clear of LUCKY PLACE and last season was a peak Teahupoo under his new campaign so he’s entitled to be just as good, if not better this season.
However, Lucky Place improved 29lbs last season from his first run to his 4th place finish in the Coral Cup. I have him as a horse to follow and while he’s schooled over fences and held chase entries, they opted to start over hurdles in the Grade 2 Ascot hurdle. I wasn’t sure what to make of the decision as I felt maybe he wasn’t 100% or hadn’t schooled well, but in short, I wasn’t expecting him to be as good as he was first time up. I mentioned in my horses to follow article “ I’m also not entirely sure whether I want to see him over a fence or not, especially just yet as from a pedigree perspective, his sire has produced only a handful of known jumps horses and two near the top of the list are Zenta and Neff who are both 0/ 2 over fences” and “Off a mark of 140 now I think this horse had loads of options and with age on his side it might just be worth sticking with hurdles with another tilt at the Coral Cup a possibility.”
In hindsight, it wasn’t as much of a potential negative to see him in the Ascot Hurdle as I thought closer to the event, and while there was the prospect of a slow start to this season and that’s where the Coral Cup tilt thought came in, he’s started off with a bang and he’s only going to improve with runs being a 5yo turning 6yo. The British stayers’ division has been weak for a couple of seasons and while Strong Leader for Olly Murphy looks to be the best we currently have at the trip, he skipped the Festival last season in favour of Aintree and might just be better on a flatter track. Still, he’s now rated 158 but went into Aintree as a 150 horse, so on that figure Lucky Place is only 5lbs off of where Strong Leader was going into the spring and is 2 years his junior. He’s also 3lbs higher rated than Crambo was when taking the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle in Ascot so I think that’s where we’ll see Lucky Place next.
One of the main reasons why I think he’s worth sticking up right now is the market for the Stayers’ Hurdle is crazy when you look at the list in price order. I’ll show that below just to display why I think this price is only going to contract with quotation marks surrounding trainer stable tour comments otherwise it’s my take on the horse:
TEAHUPOO – 2/1 – Bar misfortune it’s his race to lose
STRONG LEADER – 14/1 – Deserves a crack but might be saved for Aintree again?
LOSSIEMOUTH – 16/1 – “She’ll have a busier year this year, aiming for the Champion Hurdle”
IMPAIRE ET PASSE – 20/1 – “I think we’ll go novice chasing this season”
STELLAR STORY – 20/1 – Novice Chasing
SLADE STEEL – 20/1 – Novice Chasing
DANCING CITY – 20/1 – “I’m really looking forward to him going for those top staying novice chases”
LOSANGE BLUE – 20/1 – French raider who hasn’t been suggested or confirmed for a tilt
I AM MAXIMUS – 20/1 – “We’re keen to have another crack at the National”
SIR GINO – 25/1 – Champion Hurdle bound
HOME BY THE LEE – 25/1 – Turning 10 and three times beaten in Stayers’ already
LUCKY PLACE – 25/1
You’ll see even at this stage we’re looking at only four horses in the range of 2/1 to 25/1 that are likely to be aiming for a tilt at this race, and while I know others might end up here, it won’t be as their primary option and I can’t remember a winner of this race who came here as plan B.
So long story short, I don’t think Lucky Place is a horse who will go off favourite for this race, but I do think he’ll stay 3 miles with the way he has raced, and Nico De Boinville had a glint in his eye when asked by Matt Chapman post-race if this horse could be a stayers hurdle prospect when replying with “Have you been overhearing us, you better ask the boss there. We’ve just been discussing that.”
I think it’s important with ante-post betting to accept that you won’t get everything right, but you can have a few tries in the same race if you get them in the book at the right prices. It’ll take some season to progress enough to beat Teahupoo, I accept that, but I also think he’ll be one of only a couple of threats and he’ll probably be single figures on the day so I’d rather have him covered now.
There are risks attached with this one, but I think the unknowns and potential about him far outweigh what we know about the others, and I think people forget that he was a novice last year and ultimately is now rated 145 off the back of just one season’s racing, so is incredibly unexposed.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
At the time of writing, Willie Mullins has just scratched all his King George entries, including ante-post favourite Gaelic Warrior. I thought this was worth a mention with this being an ante-post column to serve as a healthy reminder that you can get beat the prices but still might not get paid. It’s another reason why trying to establish certain targets and establishing realistic alternatives is a crucial aspect of determining risk vs reward. It’s also a very individual thing so please do make your own informed decisions.
I’m going to work backwards now though because there is no other race to talk about above this year’s John Durkan which was run at a furious pace by Galopin Des Champs who traded at 1.21 in running. This is another example though that you don’t get paid for value as he was sent off at the biggest price in his career since his Martin Pipe win in 2021 and the first time since then that he didn’t go off as favourite. He got the better of Fastorslow under Derek O’Connor but the pair will have bigger targets down the line. Still, they ensured that this race is solid form with the front four pulling 18 lengths clear of the 5th. It was Fact To File who came out on top and he made a bit of a mistake over his fences in the latter stages but did look the winner from a little way out. Spillane’s Tower is a year his junior and he ran a phenomenal race which franks the form for Monty’s Star who finished behind each in different spring Grade 1’s last season. The Savills chase will be a belter this year and I can’t wait for the Gold Cup as the race looks set to be the deepest renewal in many years but there’s plenty of races to be run between now and then. Exciting!
I’ll switch back to these shores to bring in the Betfair Chase which ended up being run on officially soft ground but it looked much more like it could have been heavy. Both race winner Royale Pagaille and runner-up Grey Dawning stopped quickly after the last and it looked an attritional race. This is over 6 furlongs further than the John Durkan and was on more testing ground, so it was early enough in the season to be doing that to a horse like Grey Dawning. He still has a slight question mark about him staying a Gold Cup trip as he was out on his feet after heading Royale Pagaille at the last. I’d be concerned how much of a mark that could leave on him, but if he’s waited with then I think he’s clearly a very exciting prospect for the Brits although it would be hard to think of him as a Gold Cup winner with the strength over in Ireland. One thing I did think of when watching the John Durkan was; imagine Grey Dawning in this race, running off this pace set by Galopin Des Champs. Where would he have finished? I know that’s an impossible question to answer, but you’d have thought that would have suited him and you could imagine he’d have been right up there in the finish, but that’s speculation not reality.
Also on Saturday, back in Ireland we saw State Man beaten by Brighterdaysahead which looked even more unlikely after State Man headed Gordon Elliott’s mare. But, she battled strongly and maybe broke his heart a little there in his first defeat since March 2023. Gordon has said she’ll still be Mares’ Hurdle bound and I think he probably knows that with race fitness that was the day she could better State Man, so that’s a potentially positive view for State Man fans.
Ballyburn made his chasing debut and was flawless really. His low head carriage has concerned plenty but I don’t think it should have any bearing on what you think a horse is capable of and there never was any doubt about his engine. He looks the type who could win either Novice Chase Grade 1 in March, but the Arkle would probably look relatively weak a division on that side of the sea at the moment so I’m not sure we’ll see him out in trip just yet but I’m sure Willie will run him in the race he has the easiest task.
Back at Haydock, Trelawne took the Graduation Chase beating Iroko who, to me, wasn’t given the best chance to win the race. He wasn’t conceding weight to the winner, but he was to the eventual 3rd and 4th who were a long way behind the leader pair. They’ve talked about a Grand National tilt and I’m not sure they wanted to move his mark, which has stayed the same while Trelawne was raised 8lbs to also now be rated 152. This is a curious one, but I’ll be keen to keep and eye on him this season as he might just be held at his current mark and I’m being a bit mean, but he also could be trying to protect a good mark. Time will tell.
At Ascot we saw Pic D’Orhy win again, but also display why he’s probably not a Grade 1 force as he needed to be kept up to task in the 1965 chase and I’ve touched on the Ascot hurdle already but I’d just like to mention Thunder Rock who pulled up early on. I thought he had a great chance in that race, and they really didn’t go very quick so I don’t know why he stopped so quickly but Sean Bowen looked down early on so I’d say that something must have been amiss. Still, I think he might have to go on the back burner for now, but he still might pop up in a reasonable race so I hope we find out what happened on Saturday at some point.
On Friday we saw First Confession win for Joe Tizzard and he was backed like he couldn’t lose and he won in the same fashion. He’s been given an opening mark of 126, which to me could be quite light. He looked entitled to need his first run when behind Potters Charm and he’s the type to want slower ground and a longer trip too. I’ll be keen to see where they pitch him going forward, and I’d love to see him in a handicap over a trip because I think that could be telling that they know he’s well handicapped too. There is a slight worry with the British depth though that they might be able to pick up a Graded race from this type of number which would echo the sad state of affairs if a 120’s horse can be a Graded animal, novice or not.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
Lots to get excited about this weekend so I know I’ve waffled plenty in here, so I’ll just cover the main events.
Friday should see the chase debut for Caldwell Potter who is in both the John Francome Novices’ Chase and the Novices Handicap too. Willmount, Handstands, Masaccio, The Jukebox Man and Johnnywho are all potential runners in the John Francome too so that looks a belter. The card has another Graded race in the form of the Long Distance Hurdle which should see Strong Leader face off with Crambo. Langer Dan holds an entry in there too, but we know how he tends to perform at this time of the season. Interestingly, Crambo is a 66/1 shot for the Stayers’ Hurdle and Strong Leader is a general 14/1 poke, but at this stage, it’s 2/1 Strong Leader and 11/4 Crambo for Friday’s race so interpret that as you like.
Saturday is a monster day for racing with Newbury holding a very informative card. Mares’ Listed race to kick off, the Peter O’Sullevan memorial chase then a Novices Hurdle which could see Jurancon and The New Lion face off. All that before 4 seriously competitive handicaps. We have the Gerry Fieldon with Jeriko Du Reponet likely to feature and of course the Coral Gold Cup where Jamie Snowden will be attempting to land back to backs for connections with Colonel Harry coming here without a try at 3 miles like last years winner, the late Datsalrightgino.
Newcastle hosts a decent card with a nice juvenile race to kick things off before we see the French Furze Novices hurdle where Skyjack Hijack will be hoping for quick ground again. The Fighting Fifth should see Sir Gino face off against Mystical Power while the Rehearsal Chase sees a few last time out winners and plenty of last time out placed runners too.
Fairyhouse has a great two-day meeting starting on Saturday with Impaire Et Passe likely to make his chasing debut. On Sunday though, Triumph Hurdle favourite Willy De Houlle is entered in the Grade 3 Juvenile before we see the now Grade 2 Royal Bond where Romeo Coolio will be hoping to continue his hurdling success. The Drinmore Novices’ Chase follows this with Firefox, Shecouldbeanything and Heart Wood all potential runners but it’s the Hatton’s Grace which could be the most interesting race to watch with 4 runners entered. Three for Gordon Elliott including Teahupoo who is going for his three-peat in the race but fly in the ointment is Lossiemouth who gets 7lbs here and that puts the pair just 1lb apart on official ratings! This will be some clash.
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