It’s been a frustrating period with so many meetings cancelled due to the weather, but we’re out the other side of it now and there’s some big weekends coming up. We have the Berkshire Winter Million 3-day event this Friday, Saturday and Sunday then it’s Trials Day the week after followed by the Dublin Racing Festival.
I’ve reviewed the bit of action that we’ve had, and I take a good look at what’s coming up this weekend plus I do think it’s worth considering adding another selection to the book. On that same day as Trials Day, it’s the Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse where we might just see Maughreen for Willie Mullins.
MAUGHREEN – MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE @ 4/1 NRMB – HILLS (5/1 Ante-Post generally)
I’m aware she is a favourite for a race and a horse we’ve not seen this season, and only seen once in her career, but that’s part of the reason why I can only see her shortening when she does start holding entries.
From the family of Faugheen and sired by Walk In The Park, she’s got a great page but it’s what she did in that only start that was really impressive. An RPR of 121 in bumpers doesn’t come about lightly, especially on debut, and she was slashed to just 8/1 for the Champion Bumper last season off the back of it. We didn’t see her after and she’s yet to be seen this season, but to hold such a short price at the head of an ante-post market just sitting at home speaks volumes and it’s not unlike Willie Mullins to hold onto a mare until closer to the Festival before letting them be seen. Lossiemouth last season was seen on Trials Day before landing the Mares’ Hurdle, he used to send Quevega here fresh and even when Burning Victory took the Triumph, she was only seen in late February for her stable debut. For this race though, he won with Limini in 2016 who made her seasonal return in the Solerina before dotting up there and at Cheltenham. I know plenty have come here with second season experience, or lots of racing under some code, but not seeing a horse from Closutton isn’t a problem; he even got Penhill to win a Stayers Hurdle on his first run of the season and in open company.
Now with the Solerina due to be run on the 25th January, there’s every chance she at least holds an entry and that could be enough to see her price start to tumble. She’s 5/1 generally but I prefer the 4/1 NRMB option as if she’s going to shorten and take this race, she’s going off much less than the 4/1 anyway, but there’s the security of if she’s beaten first time up, and they save her novice status or if she doesn’t make the track, that we at least get the stake back.
I appreciate it’s not the most reaching selection you’ve seen in the column, but I still think there’s the potential for this to be a great value bet in the hope she fulfils the promise that’s been suggested. Connections have said she’s due out soon enough and whenever Willie decides but it’s still all systems go. Her Bumper win was impressive just looking at her in isolation but there are horses well behind who are rated around the 120’s which puts her as potentially a 130’s mare without much imagination.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Saturday Ffos Las was able to hold racing which meant we got to see the rearranged Towton Novices’ Chase where Handstands ran out a ready winner with 3 fallers and one unseated runner meaning only Lord Of Thunder was also a finisher. You wouldn’t have thought the result was in doubt though, and with his 5lb penalty he was entitled to beat the second in the way that he did based on Official Ratings. He ballooned one fence but overall it was a good round of jumping. In winning back to back Grade 2’s now, he’s not exactly thrown himself in as a Grade 1 winner in waiting just yet.
Sunday we were treated to Punchestown, and the two main races of the day were both taken by Willie Mullins and Paul Townend. The Grade 3 Novices’ Chase has some big names on the honours roll and it was Lecky Watson who was able to set the fractions out in front and despite a couple of slower jumps, he was much better than his rivals at the last and that put the race to bed. Down Memory Lane was better in his jumping than at Sandown apart from the last, but I was disappointed that at no stage was he able to travel over Lecky Watson, especially as they turned in for home. Might just be that he wants better ground, but he looked booked for third before the faller at the last, so I’d say he’s a tricky one to have confidence in going forward wherever he ends up.
Salvator Mundi was put up on this column back in November at 12/1 when I touched on the fact he’d been as big as 25/1 for the Supreme up until late September. After his Grade 2 Moscow Flyer win on Sunday, he’s now a general 7/2 favourite for the Festival opener but it’s certainly dividing opinions whether that is fair or not. My view is that Salvator Mundi is a typical Willie Mullins Supreme type in that you’d imagine he’ll be happy to make the pace like a Klassical Dream has in the past or he’ll be fine sitting just off the front. This wasn’t how he was ridden in the Moscow Flyer, and very early on Paul Townend had to give him a significant tug of the reins. I thought a lot in that moment; I wondered if he would now be far to keen and unable to settle at all, I wondered if they knew the horse wasn’t quite what was touted of him and they were not looking to hide him behind horses with a view to one more run and then a handicap tilt but then I remembered that this is Willie Mullins and Paul Townend we’re talking about here and he was smashed in the betting close to the off.
The fact they were able to use a Grade 2 race like this to teach the horse to settle and make his task that bit harder, and still won going away in the finish just screams out to me that this horse has bundles more to come in a race that’s run to suit. His jumping at Tipperary was about the only thing you could take from his runaway victory, but it looked good then, especially over the last couple. On Sunday, he wasn’t allowed to stride as he liked into hurdles and he still jumped plenty fine but the few mistakes that were made were understandable and again, add weight to the fact his performance was better than the bare result. He only got an RPR of 138 for that win though which is 8lbs lower than the 146 he got back in May. You’d also say that in a typical Supreme where we’re seeing stars of the future unleashed that this effort wouldn’t warrant favouritism, and I would agree. But this year’s Novice Hurdle form doesn’t look to be anything special, although those are the years where Willie’s first string has been seen to falter. Dysart Dynamo was sent off a joint favourite with Constitution Hill for starters and then the likes of Getabird and Tullyhill were all well beaten too.
There’s 28 races to go at when Festival week is upon us, so while we all inevitably want to get off to a flyer, if you don’t like him then there could be some EW alternatives in the race, and if you’re already on at bigger prices I think you’ll be happy enough although may feel that you can afford some cover. All we do know is, it looks like a sub-standard year, so let’s hope that whatever does the business on that Tuesday, shows us something more than we’ve seen so far and Salvator Mundi could still easily be that horse.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
Friday sees Windsor back again with the start of the Berkshire Wintere Million which should ensure three cracking days action on these shores. There’s a nice 3m Novices hurdle to get things under way followed by a potentially top-tier Novices’ Handicap Chase also over 3 miles with the likes of Jingko Blue, Resplendant Grey, Mark Of Gold and Johnnywho among the entries. The graded action kicks on after this with the Lightening Novices Chase over 2 miles attracting entries from both Caldwell Potter and L’Eau Du Sud, which would be an awesome clash to see given they’re both owned by similar connections. Gidleigh Park is also currently jocked up as is Personal Ambition. They’d all have to be giving weight away to You Wear It Well if she came here.
There’s a Mares Handicap Chase after which has brought Willie Mullins’ first entry of the weekend in Irish Emery. He then has the current favourite Kitzbuhel for the 2m4f Hurdle where BlueKing d’Oroux, Nemean Lion, Salver, Iberico Lord, Langer Dan, Ballyadam and many more hold entries too. This could be an absolute cracker of a middle-distance event. Nemean Lion is also in the following race which is a 2m Handicap Hurdle where he tops the weights. Brentford Hope is next in and there’s the likes of Kabral Du Mathan, Steel Ally, Beat The Bat, Altobelli, Givemefive, Go Dante and Secret Squirrel in the mix too. The card closes with a good-looking 0-130 handicap chase where 12 of the entries alone are rated 125+
Before we kick back with Day 2 of the Winter Million at Ascot it’s worth picking up a few races elsewhere. The opener at Navan is a rated Novice Hurdle where the conditions are based on horses being rated 135 or less if they have a rating and then penalties are applied if over 125 and having won races. That’s the not reason for attention, but it’s because Ballygunner Castle for Willie Mullins has held Graded entries the last twice and been towards the head of the markets in those. He could face off with Casheldale Lad, C’est Ta Chance, James’s Gate and The Enabler which makes this race not far off Graded standard and could see something showcase Supreme credentials if running out an easy winner. Both Ballygunner Castle and The Enabler have a Sunday entry over 2m6f too though so that’s notable and probably tempers any enthusiasm about that Supreme talk I’ve just thrown in.
Up at Haydock the current going is Frozen so they might need a bit more luck than the Berkshire tracks. They host the Grade 2 Rossington Main Supreme Trial which sees course and distance winner Royal Infantry for the Skeltons heading the market but also, we might see That’s Nice for Seven Barrows who flopped at Cheltenham last time out but would be in receipt of 11lbs from the jolly and surely she’s better than she showed the last day. The Peter Marsh is on after this where Betfair Chase hero Royal Pagaille will be looking to reaffirm his love with the track. Trelawne comes back to the track where he beat Iroko in the Intermediate chase and Kim Bailey said he had a race in mind but wouldn’t name it, I think this was it. With the abandonments we could also see Mr Vango run here so I pray the meeting goes ahead as this will be a belter. There’s a nice 3m handicap after with the likes of Phantomofthepoints look to right the wrongs of last time out and Punta Del Este was a horse I fancied before meetings were called of recently. Some are doubly entered at Windsor on Sunday too.
Onto the feature meeting of Saturday where well-backed Triumph Hurdle favourite Lulamba is due to debut. Sauvignon for Paul Nicholls has been highly talked about too, so I hope we see them clash in here. There’s a 3-mile handicap chase which follows this where King Turgeon looks to bring up a 4-timer for David Pipe but there’s some depth in this race potentially.
The Warfield Mares’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 over 2 miles, comes up next where I’m staggered that Dysart Enos didn’t even get an entry given they’ve thrown her in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. She’d get in here as the joint second highest rated on weight adjusted ratings with only a few pounds on figures to find with odds-on favourite Kargese who also holds an Irish Champion Hurdle entry. I guess this means they fancy the day out to Dublin with Dysart then as even coming second in that race she’d be bringing home less money than she would in winning this.
The 2m 5f handicap chase after houses the likes of Hitman, Martator and of course Flegmatik then in the middle-distance handicap hurdle we see Goshen heading the weights with Impose Toi. Beat the Bat, Altobelli and Givemefive that were mentioned before all hold entries here too.
Then it’s the main event, the Clarence house Chase where Jonbon will face off with Energumene, and Boothill and Edwardstone are in there too to make sure there’s no hiding place. This will be a phenomenal clash, but you’d think the two years that Jonbon has on Energumene would be enough to tips the race in his favour.
On Sunday at Ireland, Thurles hosts two Grade 2 events starting with a Mares’ Novices’ Chase over 2m 4f before over the same trip it’s the Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase with the likes of Appreciate It, Blood Destiny, Classic Getaway, Delta Work, Fil D’or, Gentleman De Mee, Journey With me and even Kilcruit who could face off. Worth mentioning again that Ballygunner Castle and The Enabler also hold entries in the 2m6f novice hurdle on this card as well as the 2m Rated Novice I talked about.
Back at Windsor on Sunday for Day 3 of the Winter Million and it starts with a Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle where again That’s Nice is entered but could take on the likes of Anno Power and Jubilee Alpha. Edwardstone tops the weights in the 2m Handicap Chase later on the card with names like Matata, Martator, Editeur De Gite, Unexpected Party and Crebilly all potential runners. Another 3-mile handicap similar to Haydocks on the Saturday has a few of the same entries but also Gwennie May Boy, Monmiral and Gelino Bello could run here.
In the Fleur De Lys Chase over 2m 6f Gerri Colombe was entered but won’t run according to his trainer but we should see Djelo, Pic D’Orhy, Protektorat, Stage Star and Ahoy Senor with Journey With me and Fil D’Or both entered and likely one comes over. Indiana Dream is now with Jonjo O’Neill, and he put up a serious effort on his only Chase start, comes here rated 152 with just one run over hurdles and one run over fences. He really could be anything but this deep enough as a return.
The card closes out with a bumper which holds 22 entries and you’d imagine there would be some of the better British bumper prospects chancing their arm in here so it’s going to be well worth the watch.
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