It’s been a real treat this Christmas for the races that we’ve seen but it’s clearly (pun intended) been marred by the races we couldn’t see in their entirety due to fog. Still, we saw multiple markets sure up for Cheltenham and more than a few incredible performances which is exactly why we love the jumps.
I’ll run you through my thoughts on the Festive action with a horse for consideration in the Brown Advisory to kick things off.
BETTER DAYS AHEAD – BROWN ADVISORY NOVICES’ CHASE @ 16/1 (Generally)
I think plenty of people expected big things from this horse by now after Jamie Codd was waxing lyrical about him before the Champion Bumper in 2023. He took the scalp of Chapeau De Soleil that season who was another highly touted horse at the time. That pair both look likely to excel now chasing and Chapeau De Soleil himself seems to improve through the season but more on him later. For now, I want to tell you why I think BETTER DAYS AHEAD can win the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase in March.
Before I do that, I’ll mention one other horse who is the now favourite Ballyburn after his defeat behind Sir Gino at Kempton. Had there been the middle distance chase still in Cheltenham I think that’s where Ballyburn would have gone, now he can’t win an Arkle he’s likely going to be aimed at the Brown Advisory, but this is something based on theory rather than evidence. Of course, he’s still a top calibre horse but we’ve got more to learn about him over fences and especially over further too. That does mean I think the market behind is sitting with a horse like Better Days Ahead as a much bigger price than he should be and I’ll finally get on and tell you for why.
He slammed Slade Steel on his chasing debut over 2m 4f which is the trip he took last seasons Martin Pipe over, albeit on Heavy ground. That was under Jack Kennedy for his chasing debut but he jumped well enough and only really went a little left which isn’t going to be a problem for March. Slade Steel was beaten again after, but by just over a length to Lecky Watson who was a couple behind Better Days Ahead in Punchestown last season. I refer to that as it’s these two horses who have improved for a fence and there wasn’t much between them last season but Better Days Ahead was better.
This Christmas Better Days Ahead was only just beaten by Croke Park but was well on top just after the line. In the run-in, he did well to stay with Croke Park but as the rail came to them in the closing stages Danny Gilligan had to switch his whip and had to stop riding the finish but it didn’t necessarily cost him the race. It was a good enough effort on his second chase start though to see him as a horse who will certainly appreciate a stiffer test and we’ve seen that he can excel in Cheltenham.
This was an RPR of just 152 and I say just because Monkfish and Delta Work both achieved 160’s RPR’s before their respective efforts in the then RSA. I’d question the validity of the RPR in this race this time round though as we missed most of the action due to fog. He was keen in Punchestown over 2m last season but from what I could see of this race he didn’t repeat that style and while we can pick holes in his hurdle form from last season, he was set up to win a Martin Pipe and we’ve seen the likes of Don Poli and Sir Des Champs taking that race before winning an RSA the following season. They did both win their Christmas assignments but they posted RPR’s of 157 and 151 respectively and I’ve only got to mention Galopin Des Champs to add weight to the argument that Maritn Pipe winners can make into proper staying chasers.
I think his loss over Christmas has kept his price honest and I think he’s inflated like some others with question marks about who Willie sends especially. We know he stays, we know he acts on any ground and we know that he likes Cheltenham. The 16/1 about him though looks well worth chancing and is big enough that if we decide to look at cover in the race it’s justified.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
I’m going to head back a little further back than just last week to bring in the Long Walk Hurdle from Ascot which saw Crambo become another multiple winner of the Grade 1 event. With the benefit of hindsight, he was the second highest rated runner in the field behind Strong Leader who was never travelling from the flag fall in conditions that may have been testing enough. The winner was all out at the line, but it was a good ride from Jonathan Burke and it was great to see how much it meant to Fergal O’Brien. The Wallpark was a never nearer 4th and was stepping out of Handicap company into a Grade 1 so should be the biggest improver from this field. Little doubt we’ve not seen the Stayers’ Hurdle winner in that race though but the race in March is murky behind the standout Teahupoo, however is there a chance a year on they know how to get last years champ beat? I’d doubt so, because I’m not sure who would have the ability to down him so you can understand why he’s shortened up at the head of the market.
Boxing Day
A whole lot to unpack from Boxing Day and I’ll start with Potters Charm who ground out a victory in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle back down in trip against a fair looking horse in Miami Magic. Hard to see the finishing effort with the fog but you’d have to question if he’s Cheltenham Grade 1 standard off the back of that, and the gut feeling was that he’s not.
Kempton held one of the best Boxing Day fixtures I can remember, and the Graded action kicked off with The Jukebox Man taking the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, but it turned into a sprint after some slow early fractions. The winner was going right-handed for the first time but looked just as good as on his chasing debut in Newbury and he oozes class. He’d look like a genuine Brown Advisory candidate in any normal year so the 7/1 top price about him looks more than reasonable with running plans not set in stone for many others around him in the betting. Surely can’t go off much bigger than 4/1 on the day even if Willie does send a couple in here but that’s not screaming out as value this far out.
Constitution Hill was back with a bang and, relatively, I think the front 3 ran about to expectation. I say relatively, because this wasn’t the best Lossiemouth nor was it the best Constitution Hill, but the former was ridden to travel and pounce but didn’t look as comfortable on this speed track and while she was race fit there is a small cloud around some of Willie’s runners. Still, she looks better over the middle trip and Constitution Hill is best at the minimum distance, so given it was his first run since this race last year, it was a phenomenal performance. He’s had a serious health issue and a recent set back, so to be able to do that was brilliant to see and the only way is up for him now.
Banbridge took the King George in a race dominated by the early fractions set by Il Est Francais. As a racing fan I felt like I wanted something to reel in the long-time leader as if he was allowed to go and do what he did 12 months ago in the Kauto Star you might just hear cries from the general public who might just be watching the event like they would a Grand National or a Gold Cup. The winner though, showed so much speed in the latter stages and having unseated when coming to challenge Energumene in the Hilly Way chase I thought he could be a livewire for a Champion Chase. Winning this might keep him over further but he was far to keen in last years Ryanair which wasn’t run at a furious gallop as is often the case, so he’ll be of interest in March in either race if he lines up and obviously is worth waiting with to see ground conditions as they always say he wants it a bit quicker.
Over at Leopardstown the card was kicked off with Kopek Des Bordes landing the Maiden Hurdle for the first time for Closutton since Klassical Dream in 2018, and we know what he did as a novice after. From what we could see, his jumping wasn’t the best and he didn’t exactly fly home in the closing stages with his stable-mate going as fast if not faster from the back of the last to the line. Looks a nice prospect for a debut effort but I’d be a little keener to follow the runner up, especially up in trip. Willie De Houelle was a drifter and well beaten in the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle won by Hello Neighbour for Gavin Cromwell, but it was probably Lady Allen Vega who was the one to take out of the race. Again the fog makes it difficult to know exactly how things unfolded, but what we did see though was two horses who quickened well in the closing stages and they’re both entitled to step forward from it.
Croke Park and Better Days Ahead got racing a long way from home in the Grade 1 Long Distance Novices’ Chase and both are clearly very good horses. I thought the latter did well to cling on to the tail of the winner and a stiffer test in Cheltenham will only help this Martin Pipe winner. That did make it back to back Grade 1’s for Croke Park having landed the Drinmore prior, so now 3 from 3 over fences he looks a much better horses for chasing and he’s over whatever caused him to under perform early in 2024. That would still be a slight red flag for me, that maybe he’s better in the early stages of the season so I’d still think Better Days Ahead would reverse the form if we were thinking about a Brown Advisory rematch as written in my Ante-Post consideration above.
Last Few Days
Sir Gino v Ballyburn was highly anticipated, and while I knew giving Sir Gino 6lbs would take a very good horse to do it, that’s exactly what I thought Ballyburn was. I’m not now saying that he’s not, but you must try and remain balanced in the aftermath of a result like this. Ballyburn didn’t jump as well as Sir Gino, he does want more of a test than the sharp 2 miles at Kempton on that type of ground and I’ll reference Willie Mullins having a below expectation Festive period once again. That said and out the way, Sir Gino is an aeroplane! He’s made an Arkle favourite look like he was a handicapper. He jumped well for a chasing debut and he’s now unbeaten in all six runs under rules, five of which have come for Nicky Henderson. He’s now picked up two Grade 2’s and two Grade 1’s, the most recent of which was in open company, regardless of the depth. He’s shown he’s effective in any ground, at any track and to think he’s only just turning 5 is quite frightening.
I know the 5yo record in the Arkle is poor and that no horse has won since the weight for age was abolished in 2008. But Fakir D’Oudairies in 2020 was only beaten by a future Champion Chaser and 18 lengths clear of the remainder so it’s not an impossible task like it’s being made out to be. There haven’t been many 5yo’s trying it and there most definitely hasn’t been a 5yo with the ability that Sir Gino has. With that Fakir D’Oudairies reference fresh in the mind I’ll remind you that he posted an RPR of 166 in that Arkle defeat while Sir Gino has just posted that on his Chase debut! He’s unbeatable bar mishap in the Arkle in March and feel free to screenshot this.
Over in Ireland we saw Willie Mullins’ woes continue with Gaelic Warrior a weak favourite who finished second to Solness who continued the Festive Joy for Joseph O’Brien. The front two both ran wide on the course throughout while Marine Nationale showed some old spark to do best from those on the inner. I thought he was eye-catching but Dinoblue, who was sporting a tongue-tie for the first time, weakened rapidly and in the fashion of a horse who now herself has wind issues. As for Marine Nationale, I’d say the ground was key to his comeback so his chance in a Champion Chase would have to be ground dependant and Gaelic Warrior should come on bundles for that run. Still at this stage, it’s Jonbon setting the better benchmark.
Romeo Coolio won the Grade 1 Future Champions in nice style although his winning margin of 9 lengths is flattered with the runner up Bleu De Vassy having been softly ridden once beaten. He made a jarring mistake earlier on too so it’s another runner up rather than winner I’d be keen to follow going forward. I was expecting Salvator Mundi to be running in here and I’d have fancied him to land this, but in fairness to Romeo Coolio it was the best novice hurdle effort we’ve seen this season so maybe Willie knew his Supreme favourite was not quite up to that effort just yet.
On Saturday we saw Kaid D’Authie defy a huge drift from odds-on to 7/2 in the opening at Leopardstown which makes his half-length victory even more impressive. The runner up Koktail Divin pulled nine clear of the third so I’d be confident the front two are good horses. The winner was keen enough and didn’t jump well, which is a concern even more so after falling last time out. The pair are just turning five though so they have time on their sides, but I’ll shoehorn in some more Sir Gino propaganda as he’s the same age!
Home By The Lee capped off an incredible few days for Joseph O’Brien by landing the now Savills Hurdle beating Bob Olinger who doesn’t look like he stays despite how much they’re trying. The winner has fallen short in Cheltenham’s Stayers’ Hurdle 3 times now so his card is marked, unless the ground was to come up quicker than Soft and he’d have every chance in a very open year outside the favourite. Another runner to sit and wait on rather than risk Ante-Post though. Galopin Des Champs was then seen to his best again in the Savills Chase with another 180’s RPR and he’s going to be very hard to beat in the Gold Cup again. Feels a bit strange having to say that, but he was knocked off his perch after the John Durkan for favouritism which has always been a trial that boggles me. I know it’s been used by staying chasers, but it’s a 2m 3½f trial which is 7 furlongs short of the Gold Cup trip. It’s right-handed and in Punchestown which has been the scene of all his completed Chase defeats, so I pray he gets another Gold Cup win and gets the respect he deserves. All too often we’re reminded of the mark a Gold Cup run leaves on these horses with many never winning a race again or scaling the heights they did before. Even Willie Mullins stated that it’s possible he may even still be improving. A good time to remind everyone that there was a potential cloud being cast over the performances of many of his runners this Christmas, but if that were true, we wouldn’t have seen Galopin Des Champs do what he did to stable-mate Fact To File.
Earlier on the card we saw Dee Capo take the Beginners Chase with both Chapeau De Soleil and Quai De Bourbon looking very likely to improve for their debuts. The former of the Closutton due may well be a contender for the new National Hunt Chase as he looks like he’ll stay forever and a day and might not be raised too harshly from his mark of 138.
Over in Limerick we saw Impaire Et Passe confirm the belief that he was going to make a better chaser than a hurdler as he looked a barrel of a horse when winning his Ballymore two seasons ago. He does still have to confirm he stays, but I’m sure Willie will want to find that out before Cheltenham so I think we’ll see him out in trip for the Dublin Racing Festival where I think it’s possible we see him and Ballyburn face off in the race which saw Fact To File vs Galopin Des Champs 12 months ago. Go on Willie, you know you want to!
Back on these shores we saw The New Lion run out an impressive winner of the Challow Hurdle. I say run out, but he cantered to the front, and I don’t think we saw the bottom of him there at all. What I would say is that my initial feeling was the field finished close enough and bunched up enough in behind that it was a very good effort, but possibly inflated by the manner in which Harry Skelton rode him exuding confidence. I’m sure I’m being harsh here, but how many Challow Hurdle winners have we seen leave a lasting impression only to be bettered in March. I know it’s not all about Cheltenham, and the last horse who won like this was probably Champ who only narrowly was denied, but I’m not certain he’ll end up as favourite for the Turners Novices Hurdle when the time comes but at this stage he deserves to be at the head of the betting for sure.
Sunday saw as impressive a performance as both Galopin Des Champs and Sir Gino with Brighterdaysahead slamming her rivals in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Hurdle. The most notable scalp was that of State Man once again, but I was surprised with her SP given she’d bettered him last time out. She was taken through the race at a good gallop by King Of Kingsfield, but she left him in her wake as they turned for home and she bounded clear of the tiring State Man who was never at the races. Adds to the conundrum of whether she goes to the Mares’ Hurdle or the Champion Hurdle now, but they can make their call nearer the time. As a racing fan I’d rather she took a crack at Constitution Hill this season given the form she’s in but with her flopping in Cheltenham last season (which hurts me even more now seeing what she’s capable of) they might just want to get a win at the track and typically a Mares Hurdle would be an easier assignment. That said, I do think it’s Lossiemouth’s ideal trip, so it’s some quandary to have for connections but I’m sure they’ll enjoy both possibilities for a while yet before they make their final decision.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
New Years’ Day on Wednesday sees eight jumps fixtures with Cheltenham hosting a decent and typically informative card featuring the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle which confirms Ante-Post recommendation Lucky Place is alive and well. The card closes with a Listed bumper and holds a few good-looking Handicaps too. In Ireland, Tramore hosts the Grade 3 O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey New Year’s Day Chase with Gerri Colombe (another Ante-Post recommendation) hopefully running after not being declared for the Savills Chase. Minella Indo and Monty’s Star for Barry Maloney and Henry De Bromhead are both entered too. At Fairyhouse there’s a Grade 3 Mares’ Chase over 2m 5½f which holds the entries of Limerick Lace and Allegorie De Vassy.
Fairly quiet Thursday and Friday cards but on Saturday it’s the Veteran’s Chase Series Final in Sandown with a Listed Mares’ hurdle preceding that. Sunday, we have the Lawlor’s of Naas in Ireland and the Sussex National in Plumpton so there’s a bit of something for everyone and it has been a high class and hectic festive period so far.
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