GG’s Cheltenham Festival ante-post book got underway last week, with Dave Young giving his first selection. Here, he provides his second, as he looks at the market for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
ANTE POST BET #2
SALVATOR MUNDI – SUPREME @ 12/1 (LADBROKES, BETFRED, CORAL)
Up until late September this year you could have gotten up to 25/1 about this horse for the same race, but until I invent a time travelling machine, I can only advise as things stand right now. That support came prior to any public announcements via stable tours but I think the general consensus is that SALVATOR MUNDI for Willie Mullins and the Donnellys is potentially a horse who was waited with by design.
The owners having Sir Gino who beat this horse in a Listed hurdle in France would have known they had a top juvenile prospect, and it was shown to be true despite missing Cheltenham. Also, Willie Mullins was responsible for 7 of the 12 runners in last season’s Triumph hurdle taking the first and second place and filling 5 of the first 7 places. So, he was loaded with juveniles for the campaign and Salvator Mundi hadn’t lost his maiden tag yet.
Il Etait Temps was under a similar conclusion going into his 5yo season having raced three times in the deep end of Grade 1 juveniles in the spring where well beaten by Vauban on all occasions. While I’d argue that many were not expecting supreme glory, he still ended up a 4/1 second favourite for the Supreme behind Facile Vega and they were both beaten by Marine Nationale. The curious thing with Il Etait Temps is that he was sold between that juvenile campaign and starting the following season to a syndicate which tempered enthusiasm, as if you knew you had a supreme challenger, I’m not sure why you’d sell. But I suppose, circumstances change for people and maybe they just needed to get out. Facile Vega was also in the camp and touted as the Supreme winner but, I digress. The example being used with Il Etait Temps is to show that the last time this situation presented itself we saw a Grade 1 winning Novice Hurdler who also turned into a Grade 1 winner Novice Chaser so there’s method to the madness for sure.
As for Salvator Mundi, he does sport a hood which might be off-putting for a horse racing so young, but I’d hold a bit more confidence that the tongue-tie (which he wore on first two occasions) was omitted last time out in Tipperary where he lost his Maiden tag in some fashion.
It’s hard to exactly know the level of the form when a horse is long odds-on and doesn’t have to beat much. However, he did notch up an RPR of 135 for a 62-length victory and in comparison, Romeo Coolio won with ease on his debut too but scored a 120 RPR. These are loose comparisons, but Slade Steel and Marine Nationale posted 124 and 125 in their maiden hurdle wins. We’ll find out the pecking order soon enough, but while there’s always the unknown of Supreme vs Gallaghers for these top Novice Hurdlers, Willie cited the latter specifically for Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux. Of course, things change through the season, but I think the right bet at this stage is Salvator Mundi for the Supreme while the 12/1 is still available. Should he win the Royal Bond and potentially claim the scalp of Romeo Coolio in doing so, he’ll be a 3/1 or 4/1 for March. Even a decent showing in defeat though and we’ve probably still got a valuable slip.
Willie Mullins Quote – “I’m told he’s well up in the betting for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he jumps well and is a real nice type, so we’ll probably go down the Supreme route. But he could run in the Gallaghers. I’m very happy with him and he’s a real nice type to have as a novice this season.
He did what he had to do at Tipperary and there was probably no depth in the race, but the ground was nice and we thought before we threw him out to grass we’d see him one more time on the racecourse. We probably have to look at the Royal Bond. It’s a Grade 2 this year but that will be fine and whether he has a run before then I doubt it.”
THE WEEK JUST GONE
In Chepstow on Wednesday we saw Jurancon get the better of Tripoli Flyer and the pair both left the impression that they are above average novices. The same can be said for both French Ship and Let It Rain who put a good distance between themselves and third in the following race, although Let It Rain was terribly weak in the betting and while unlikely to have beaten the winner, was never actually asked to challenge. All four mentioned there are ones to keep on side for form through the season, I’m sure.
Thursday in Newbury Roysse was beaten favourite who had form lines with Jurancon from last season but a good friend of mine reminded me that he’s a brother to Ferns Lock who is a bit of rogue, so he may share that same attribute and it appeared to be so. The actual winner Hartington was slammed by The Kemble Brewery on his first run this season and that horse just beat Jurancon in the same race but was out this Sunday and won as expected. Again, another nice horse.
In Clonmel we saw Allegorie De Vassy turned over at 1/3. The complexion of the race changed with a non-runner that morning but still it was reminder that for all the ability she has, she’s not to be trusted. Saint Sam picked up the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil chase after being well supported. Fakir d’Oudairies was priced up as the favourite initially but he was well beaten and is entered for the Cross County Handicap this weekend in Cheltenham so he might just be lost at the game.
Friday in Exeter we saw Skyjack Hijack with yet another facile victory but this time outside of Handicap company. Seemingly he’s got at least as much ability as his official rating in the 130’s would suggest and on this type of ground he could win again and holds entries this week. JPR One took the Haldon Gold Cup. I’d say the runner up wants further than the 2m 1 ½F the race was run over and that was too far for the third. Easy in hindsight eh!
Saturday we saw lots of nice performances although I’m not entirely sure how much we learned from some results. Mister Meggit and Haiti Couleurs won well, but as expected, and Imperial Saint was backed like defeat was out of the question and he won like it too, but again arguably won as expected.
As much as King Turgeon was well backed when winning the Grand Sefton, Idalko Bihoue was backed into favourite and was well behind, so a reminder for me at least, that’s a division I’d be better served to avoid and the market only half knows what to expect.
Over in Wincanton Paul Nicholls notched up a 5-timer and the best of those was Rubaud in the Elite Hurdle although 11yo Al Dancer stole the weekend with his fantastic display in the Badger Beer.
On Sunday, Tutti Quanti was easy to back in the opener in Ffos Las but despite a few jumping errors, got the job done. Could be more from him down the line.
Over in Naas we saw Quilixios slam his rivals in the Grade 3 Barberstown Castle chase taking the scalp of Marine Nationale who is looking a shell of his Novice hurdle self based on his last two runs and it seems breathing is clearly an issue now. You’d hope that his trainer would still have the intention to land a pot somewhere with him, but I don’t think he’s a horse you could ever bet again and they’re probably going to have to lower their sights again.
Farren Glory was very good in the beginners chase after but it was probably only what was expected of him. Still, a nice bit of form franking for Inthepocket who slammed him prior.
Back in Sandown we had an interesting scenario with Jeriko Du Reponet who was pulled up as odds-on favourite for a novices’ handicap chase. Fractious in the prelims and having to be re-saddled, he understandably drifted in the betting but his race was run before the event. A 10-minute delay due to him alone begs the questions, should the line be drawn if there’s a delay so close to the off?
COMING UP THIS WEEK
Cheltenham and there are 3 days of incredible action at Prestbury Park and plenty of Festival and season long clues to be seen while over in Ireland Navan hosts a really good weekend fixture too.
I’d struggle to make a shortlist of notable entries as there are fair too many to whittle down, but I will say, that across Cheltenham Friday, Saturday and Sunday plus Navan Saturday and Sunday, we’re going to see some cracking action, even if the dry ground might keep a few big names at bay for the mean time.
I’ve created a Cheat Sheet for both the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Greatwood Hurdle, which can be found below, while there’s a November Meeting video over on the GG YouTube channel with some reminders of the class on show. (You can also find that above).
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