Last year’s ante-post book pointed GG readers towards a 16/1 winner of the Ryanair Chase with Protektorat put up three weeks in advance of his showpiece success. Our book returns for this year, with Dave Young providing his first selection, in no less a race than the Gold Cup…
It’s good to be back talking Cheltenham, but we do all recognise that there’s so much quality on show throughout the jumps season that it is, in fact, not all about Cheltenham. That said, there’s something about enjoying the journey that makes reaching the goal all the sweeter and if we can collect a few small wins through the season (both metaphorically and literally) then it’s likely to make for a more fruitful spring.
I’ll continue from last season’s column by putting a selection up most weeks, then reviewing the action from the last seven days and looking forward to what’s coming up in the immediate future. It is always helpful to take stock of things in the moment as it allows us to reflect on how things change over time and it’s important to both make mistakes and accept them.
“We learn wisdom from failure much more than from success. We often discover what will do, by finding out what will not do; and probably he who never made a mistake never made a discovery.” – Samual Smiles
ANTE POST BET #1
GERRI COLOMBE – GOLD CUP @ 16/1 (BET365, PADDY POWER, BETFAIR, UNIBET)
This might take a little more selling following his defeat in Down Royal this past weekend and given it was his lowest RPR (Racing Post Rating) since his chasing debut, I understand there will be doubters.
It was GERRI COLOMBE‘s first time placing outside of the top two in his career and while he was sent off as an 8/11 favourite, he was up and down in the market. Gordon Elliott was very vocal about the going in Down Royal needing to be on the easy side of good for Gerri to run, but with an entry at Wetherby not taken up due to even quicker ground there, he wasn’t exactly a certain runner. With that, I think Gordon really wanted to get the run into him and while you never want to see your horse beaten, it’s the start of a season and bigger targets will come down the line. He has said that the Gold Cup is the aim again this season and that he’ll be onto the Savills Chase next time out so the plan hasn’t changed.
At this stage it’s pertinent to acknowledge that his run was bad enough that there could have been something amiss. There is plenty of time between now and March, and nothing has come out just yet, but striking an ante-post bet this far out has risks attached regardless. I’d imagine some of you reading this might be happy to pass over this selection as the risk reward maybe doesn’t sit right with you and, as always, these are only bets for consideration although they are all struck by me.
I’ll defend Gerri a bit, as he didn’t look entirely comfortable from an early stage at the weekend. It was Sam Ewing’s first time atop the horse and there were a couple of jumps where the rider and horse were not in sync, so much so Sam Ewing did well to sit on him on more than once. He’s not a complicated ride and he’s won under every jockey who has ridden him before, but I’m happy to draw a line through his run, seeing as he bounced out of the Gold Cup last year to win at Aintree so I’m not in agreement with anyone who says the Gold Cup has bottomed him, or finished him off.
Galopin Des Champs is one of the great modern chasers, so of course he’s going to be the one to beat again. However, he started last season with his lowest ever chase RPR before following that up in the Savills chase with a career best effort. Now I’m not saying I expect Gerri to do that over Christmas, but I’m just highlighting that you’d be foolish to write off a horse of this calibre just from one run.
It’s a deeper renewal this year, with Fact To File already a joint favourite, Fastorslow looking for redemption after unseating last season, Grey Dawning looking to take that step forward and so too Inothewayurthinkin. But Gerri was a good second last year and while he was a few lengths off the winner, there’s enough in the race from last year to suggest that he could bridge that gap. In Galopin Des Champs first Gold Cup win he didn’t get the best of passages but was clearly much the best horse. Last season he got a dream run on the outside and Gerri suffered congestion on multiple occasions from the loose Fastorslow. In fact, he suffered some interference at the first fence too, but it was more the bulk of the latter stages where he was switched a few times, he didn’t jump the best but had horses in front and around him. I’m not sure he’d have the tactical pace to get first run on Galopin Des Champs, but I do believe if the pair had swapped journeys in last years race that Gerri could have won.
I appreciate I’m clinging on to a good bit of faith here, but I don’t believe he should be a 16/1 shot, a few of the firms quoted do offer cash-outs so there’s another level of compensation there, and ultimately I think he’s worth getting on side.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Down Royal had its two-day Champion Chase fixture on Friday and Saturday and we’ve touched on Gerri’s defeat. But typically, Gordon Elliott does well at the fixture and that was true again with The Yellow Clay, Brighterdaysahead, Firefox and Jacob’s Ladder all in the winners enclosure on Friday.
The Yellow Clay had not much to beat and made it yet another odds-on favourite winning that particular Maiden Hurdle. We’ll learn more next time out and up in class as to whether he really fits the mould of a Gallaghers or Albert Bartlett type. Stablemate Wingmen was a non-runner due to a stone bruise and is a horse of interest when seen next time out as one of my horses to follow this season.
Brighterdaysahead was strong in the market late on and wasn’t going to allow Daddy Long Legs to dictate matters so had a bit of a ding dong with him for the most part of the race. King Of Kingsfield was quietly ridden but never looking getting to the winner, so I think it was job done for her on seasonal reappearance, but I wasn’t as blown away as many other seem to be and she did make a load of big shapes over hurdles again. 5/2 top price for the Mares Hurdle in March looks an atrocious price, even more so if Lossiemouth ran there in March too. Even if the race does cut up, there’s a few in behind who could have something to say, especially for the fans of Dysart Enos, who apparently would have won the Mares’ Novice doing handstands last year.
Firefox looks a nice type but at this stage you’d think he mightn’t be the best 2-mile chaser in Ireland. However, he did jump great and there’s plenty who improve a bundle for a fence so he’s going to be a player in the big festivals this season I’m sure.
Jacob’s Ladder basically walked in and you’d hope he’s seen over hurdles next time out being a 5yo rising 6yo. We’ll learn more about him as we go through the season and while he might have a fitness edge on his rivals, he could be a player in the earlier Graded races.
On the Saturday, it was another four-timer for Gordon and the gang with both Romeo Coolio and Found A Fifty winning very impressively for different reasons. The former was making his hurdling debut and we learned that he can jump and he has a massive engine but I don’t think we gained any clues with regards to trip just yet. The good ones usually can do it in most situations and he definitely looks like a good one. Found A Fifty though was giving a stone to Pinkerton who took the Galway Plate this summer off 138 so was fit and ready to go. I suppose now racing in open company you’d have to ask is he likely to be a Ryanair contender more than a potential Champion Chaser? Well maybe, but I’m not sure he’s an open Grade 1 winner in waiting just yet, unless he’s handed an easy assignment.
Back on these shores from the long weekend, there’s probably just Cadell to reference from Friday’s racing who landed a three-runner Novices’ Chase after West Balboa was a non-runner due to the ground. The performance in isolation would have appeared that even if Dan Skelton’s runner was in the race that Cadell would have won and while he made a couple of mistakes, he also threw in some great jumps so for a novice he looks like there’s bundle more to come. The handicapper though put him up a stone for that effort which potentially where he could be in a couple more runs but seems harsh for such a niche race that he contested. No chances taken, but the handicapper has done this before and I just wonder if he’s worth keeping in mind for the entirety of the season as I’m sure things will fall to suit at some point, it just might not be straight away.
Saturday saw The Real Whacker land the Charlie Hall Chase and he took the scalp of Bravemansgame, and I would have no excuses for that horse being beaten. I know many will talk about trainer form and that he might not have been fully wound up for it, but Paul Nicholls said he was, and the yard have had 2 winners a neck second since his run, the first winner coming on the same day in Ascot. It was a winning performance of course for The Real Whacker and great to see for connections, especially Brian Hughes as he landed the first two Grade 2s of the season. I’m not sure he’s going to be winning anything of Grade 1 status this season, although I really do hope he’s highly tried and then might be able to do some damage off his current mark of 159 which potentially could drop over a few runs. You’d think both Kempton and the Cotswold chase from last season could both be on the cards again.
At Ascot, there was no doubt that Chianti Classico was the standout performance and even his 5lb rise to 157 might not stop him winning a similar contest again. The yard has planned to run him in the Grand National this season and the Becher Chase has been cited as a possible next target. I’d love to see him in a Coral Gold Cup, but I think between now and The Grand National it’ll be about education and experience more than pot hunting or looking for wins.
Martator is also worth mentioning and keeping onside. He won as easily as anything in handicaps over the weekend and his 6lb rise looks relatively generous. A winner on heavy as well as good ground, he travelled strongly and quietly throughout and was barely asked to go on in the closing stages and his RPR of 145 looks more than likely to be accurate and more realistic than the OR he now holds of 140. Venetia has a habit of winning in Ascot with these types although Newbury could also offer options for him too.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
The racing starts to ramp up on Wednesday with some nice types in at Chepstow especially Let It Rain for the Skeltons but onto Thursday there are a few more names I think are worth noting.
Roysse in the 13:05 at Newbury who took the scalp of Jurancon, who runs himself in Chepstow the day before over hurdles. The pair look quite smart.
Destroytheevidence in the 13:40 at Newbury who has been touted as this seasons Chianti Classico by Kim Bailey and the Ultima in March is his target. He might want to get another win under his belt following a decent effort first time up chasing in Chepstow.
Thurles has a Listed race preceding the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil chase which has Allegorie De Vassy looking to get back to winning ways, while in the feature race itself, Saint Sam, Fakir D’ourdaires, Fil Dor and Solness could all do battle with Bronn and Influential Lady completing the field. That should be some race to watch.
It’s the West Country Weekend which starts on Friday in Exeter we have the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup which sees plenty of exciting types in the entries and JPR One the current favourite. Libberty Hunter, Solo, Djelo, Heltenham, Etalon, Sans Bruit, Saint Segal, Riskintheground and Scarface are the other entries.
Before that there’s the ‘Future Stars’ Silver Bowl Novices’ Chase which is could see Captain Teague, Hillcrest, Shanagh Bob and West Balboa (among others) clash, but both Hillcrest and Shanagh Bob hold an entry in a Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday too. Imagine seeing Shanagh Bob in a Handicap off 134! Please Nicky!
Mentioning Handicaps, Coco Mademoiselle is entered in the 3m Handicap in Exeter Friday as well as the same race as Shanagh Bob in Aintree, I’d be hugely interested in her wherever she lines up, hopefully not taking on Bob though.
Saturday is Badger Beer day in Wincanton which also houses two Grade 2’s on their card. The first of which is the Rising Stars Novices’ Chase over 2m 4f where Boombawn, Handstands, Insurrection, Peaky Boy, Resplendent Grey and Soul Icon could all feature, just Peaky Boy holding an entry elsewhere which comes on Sunday in Sandown.
The second Grade 2 is the Elite Hurdle which should see Nemean Lion, Rubaud, Lump Sum and Brentford Hope face off with a chance that Aspire Tower takes his chance too for Henry De Bromhead.
Also, on Saturday on this side of the Irish sea we have Aintree with the Grand Sefton their feature. So many potential runners across the entire card that it’s hard to whittle them down at this stage but it’s going to be a very informative meeting so don’t miss that.
Sunday is a potentially a whopper in Sandown with Anno Power looking set to make her hurdle debut for Harry Fry and then Nicky Henderson has all three of Iberico Lord, Jeriko Du Reponet, Peaky Boy jocked up with Nico in the Novices Handicap Chase. He also has a number of entries in the bumper on the card too so it’s worth noting those now because they wont all run; Bobajob, Broxy Music and Noble Park.
Back in Ireland for the weekend in Gowran Park on Saturday we might get to see Workahead for Henry De Bromhead running in the Minella Indo silks for Barry Maloney but he’s also entered on Sunday in Naas. Before that there’s a chance we see Casheldale Lad for Gordon Elliott and Bective stud who was a nice enough winner on the flat back in September before joining his new connections.
Forty Coats for Henry De Bromhead was a nice point and bumper winner who could start his hurdling campaign on Sunday in Naas but it’s the chasers that take the limelight with the Grade 3 Barberstown Castle Steeplechase over 2 miles housing 2023 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Marine Nationale alongside Quilixios, Zanahiyr and Hercule Du Seuil. Straight after we have a Beginners Chase over the same trip, so we’ll get a nice steer on times potentially for Galway Hurdle winner Nurburgring, Farren Glory and Touch Me Not.
Things are certainly starting to ramp up so enjoy the racing and be lucky.
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