Sandwiched right between Trials Day from last weekend and the Dublin Racing Festival coming up on Saturday and Sunday, it feels like Cheltenham is almost here. Six more weeks and Day 1 will be underway, and I had a few thoughts this week for potential selections however the time isn’t quite right to strike on some of them, but I think I’ll have a couple for most weeks going forward.
I’m going to pull the trigger on one race which I’ve already recommended a selection in, because I think we can put that race to bed.
THE YELLOW CLAY – TURNERS NOVICES’ HURDLE @ 8/1 – BET365 (6/1 NRMB with William Hill)
The Yellow Clay is only slightly bigger in the standard Ante-Post market but I’m happy to roll the dice because I see this as his only genuine option and his trainer name checked the race after his latest win. I do think the 6/1 NRMB is still fair though as he is vying for favouritism for the Albert Bartlett, both with the sportsbooks and the exchange.
Onto the horse and the race though, I thought his Lawlors Of Naas victory was well above average even considering the no show from Jasmin De Vaux. In my prep for that race I noticed that typical winners of that race had run at least a couple of times over hurdles and his effort the time before looked better on reflection giving the closing furlongs were run so much quicker than Jasmin De Vaux’s from the same card. I was concerned that the testing ground might get the better of him though, and I thought that maybe contributed to his narrow margin victory on his penultimate start. His jockey after the race said again how much he hated the ground in the race, but he slammed stable-mate Wingmen who travelled with him until the closing stages, and the eventual second Supersundae was well backed and ridden to pick up the pieces but in truth, couldn’t lay a glove on the winner.
Now we’ve had a wet start to the year and it’s continuing at the moment but the longer-term forecast suggests a dry end to February and into March and last weekend in Cheltenham for Trials day we had only Soft ground. It’s risky trying to predict the weather this afternoon let alone in 6 weeks’ time, but I don’t see a scenario where The Yellow Clay doesn’t come for the Turners’ in March, I think slower ground will just be a roll of the dice and hope a bit, but better ground will see him in a better light at this trip.
He definitely showed a level above his current form when racing on quicker than Soft ground and while that penultimate run might have produced a lower RPR, it was a good effort if you look away from the price he was sent off at considering those late furlong splits. His Grade 3 run in November was with a 142 RPR and his latest win was given an RPR of 148 but I think that’s light considering he was never in doubt and he’s slammed a 139 horse in third and a 142 rated horse in second. With the view that better ground will produce a better performance from him, I think he’s a ready made high 150’s horse in the right conditions but the good horses will do it on any ground when they have to.
He is a second season bumper horse so clearly had a setback which kept him holding onto his Novice status for this season. He still ran well at bigger priced in the DRF and Cheltenham and was only narrowly beaten in Punchestown too. If we draw a line through last season, he’s unbeaten. In a conventional career he would have gone hurdling last season but at least he didn’t have to take on Ballyburn would be the silver lining I’m taking from all this.
Lawlor’s winners this century that went onto this novice race at Cheltenham have form figures of 1,1,P,3,2,3,1,2,3 with travel blamed for Battleoverdoyen pulling up as favourite in 2019. This reads with a view that he’s almost a banker for a top three finish and he’s been over to Cheltenham before where he ran as well if not better than he did the time before, both on Soft ground though which I’ve stated is clearly not his preference.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
On Thursday over at Gowran Park we saw Rocky’s Diamond land the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle from the unlucky Thedevilscoachman but both Hiddenvalley Lake and Asterion Forlonge were well beaten. This left little behind Teahupoo in terms of dangers and the 5yo winner will have to do what 18 others his age have failed to do since 1997 if he goes onto win a Stayers’ Hurdle proper. Also on the card, we had a Willie Mullins Beginners Chase with his five runners finishing 1,2,3,5,6. Quai De Bourbon got the better of Chapeau De Soleil and his jumping was a bit better but right-handed this time out. I really do think Chapeau De Soleil is crying out for 3 miles and further now, but this pair pulled 7 lengths clear of the third and I’m just really intrigued to see where the runner up goes next. There is the 10 up novices’ chase next month which has been a pointer to the NH Chase in the past, but of course with the race conditions changing significantly I wonder where else they may point him. He’s one of many horses that I can’t wait to see the mark the BHA give him.
Friday saw Diva Luna turned over at odds-on, but she was probably beaten by a nice type in his own right, however it does bring forward to me the standard of mares over here just not being anywhere close to what’s on offer in Ireland.
Saturday was of course mostly focussed on Trials Day at Cheltenham and East India Dock backed up his last win at the track with an even more impressive win. He’s speedy, he stays, he handles most ground and the track so he’s a head scratcher to some extent as to what he needs to do to warrant favouritism for March, but that probably speaks volumes for Lulamba. Stencil was with him for a long way and is favourite for the Boodles now but I’d be keen to take him on and I don’t think they were just plodding around for a mark in this. The third was beaten further this time that before when behind the winner, but he would appreciate quicker ground.
Moon D’Orange landed a touch in the open handicap chase under a very cool ride. Being an Irish raider, we don’t know what his revised mark will be, but the runner up got 3lbs and the third got 1lb so you’d think he’ll be at least 5lbs higher next time. The third was Imperial Saint having his first run at Cheltenham, and I thought he handled it incredibly well as I had him marked down as a bit of a flat track horse. The biggest eye-catcher though was Iroko who placed 4th and clearly, he’s the type to go very well in a 3-mile handicap whenever they decide to step him up in trip. His trainer has said that the Grand National is still the aim this year but that would mean the Ultima likely comes to close to Aintree so while he’s favourite for that race he might not line up. I don’t know what to believe, but I don’t think he’s winning a Grand National with the way that he jumps, but I think he can win an Ultima for sure.
L’Homme Presse got the better of Stage Star in the Cotswold Chase and I’m sure plenty will say he was good value for the winning margin, but he was getting 4lbs from the runner up. Stage Star is bred to stay so it was a very encouraging effort from him and opens some doors for the Spring but Aintree might be the target rather than Cheltenham and he’s 0 from 4 at that track. Constitution Hill overcame a final flight scare to win The International Hurdle but he only achieved an RPR of 150 which is the same figure he received on rules debut. Not much more to learn from that race or to say about his performance as he can’t really be judged in races where he’s sent off 1/12 but it was great to see him on a track again. Let’s not forget his Supreme win achieved an RPR of 174, so this comeback RPR of 150 is nothing to worry about in my opinion.
Gowel Road took the Cleeve Hurdle and was well backed to do so. He’ notched up his 4th RPR of 145 in a row there and while it strengthened the argument that Teahupoo has little to beat this year in the Stayers’ it did frank the form for Lucky Place last time out who was giving him weight when he bettered him. He’s going straight to Cheltenham as a fresher horse so I’ve still got hope he’s got a chance to find what he needs to over a longer trip to go close.
Sixmilebridge took the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle with Potters Charm well beaten in second. He was smashed in the betting from evens into 8/15, but his trainer said post-race that he had excuses and that he only ran as the race looked weak. I’m not buying that and it’s clearly not a good position to be in six weeks out from a Turners Novices’ Hurdle for him. The third Bill Joyce did little to boost The New Lion form, but the winner looks a horse of decent standard for connections. I’m not sure he’s a Festival winner this season though receiving an RPR of 145 and a new OR of 142.
At Doncaster, Yellow Car took the Grade 2 River Don to boost Jet Blue in the Albert Bartlett but Western Knight was already letting down the same line of form before unseating his jockey late on. Make of that what you will.
Over at Fairyhouse, Aurora Vega took the Grade 3 Solerina Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle but she’s 16/1 for the Mares’ Novices’ in March with both Maughreen and Sixandahalf vying for favouritism. Kawaboomga took the 2m maiden hurdle later on the card in beating William Munny. That boosted the form for Workahead in terms of a Supreme challenger but the winner of this race probably looks more like a Turners prospect, although not a winning one in my opinion. The third was beaten a long way but I was surprised to see Koktail Divin dropped back to the minimum trip having thought he might even be an Albert Bartlett type. He wasn’t even given an entry in that Novice Hurdle race in March but is in both of the others. I wonder if he’s going to be a project for next season though now.
On Sunday at Naas we saw Anzadam take the Limestone Lad Hurdle with ease, but he was sent off 1/10 so we learnt nothing other than Willie Mullins is keen to avoid any serious challenge for this 5yo with the Irish Champion Hurdle having been a potential option. His trainer suggested he’s likely to skip Cheltenham in favour of Aintree this season, and clearly he wants to make sure he doesn’t phase this promising youngster. I think that’s the right choice as he’d have to overcome a huge amount of inexperience if he’s thrown into something like a Champion Hurdle.
Dancing City took the Grade 3 Novices’ Chase over 3m1f and it was run on Heavy ground too. He was 8lbs better off with Bioluminescence who finished second but she’s reliant on slow ground and while I see the attraction for her in the Mares’ Chase with question marks around many, I don’t think she’s winning that based off this effort, if anything it confirmed just how much of a test she needs. The winner was all over her though in truth and he looks a proper Brown Advisory type and he’s progressed from being a Grade 1 staying novice hurdler into a probably Grade 1 winning chaser.
Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips – A Pertemps Puzzle Solver from Matty Sutcliffe
The Pertemps Final is perhaps the hardest race to find a winner of at the Cheltenham Festival, with qualifiers throughout the season and some still to be navigated. Nevertheless, Matty Sutcliffe has come armed with a strong 14/1 fancy to bet now… Pertemps – Feet Of A Dancer 14/1 1pt WIN The Pertemps Qualifier at…
Tue 28 Jan 2025COMING UP THIS WEEK
There’s going to be so much to find out from this weekend from the DRF that I’ll save the time this week and provide a deep dive in the next instalment. I’ve got my eyes out for Graded clues but also marked some horses for potential Handicaps who are also in Graded races this weekend, so I’ll reveal those after the results come in, whether it goes my way or not.
Musselburgh has a decent card on Saturday too and with weather causing issue again we do have Sandown on Saturday. Whether it’s a mixed card or just chases, or even on, is yet to be decided so, again I’ll save us some time.