There are no selections in GG’s ante-post book this week but there’s plenty of time to get horses on board as Dave Young runs through the integral action on the racecourse over the past week.
This time of the season starts to see a real shift in the types of horses we’ll be seeing out on course. It’s littered with proven festival winners who are going about their next campaign and some of the best novices and bumper horses will be surfacing to showcase their credentials as the best novices for this season ahead in their next sphere. We’ve had a bit of wet weather in the last 24 hours too and with more forecast it means that proper jumps racing is closing in.
Great action from last weekend which I’ll review below and there’s a conveyor belt of action-packed weekends’ on the horizon so there’s going to be plenty to get our teeth into.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
The main focus on these shores was in Cheltenham for their November meeting so I’ll cover my thoughts from there before we head over to Ireland as they had some cracking action too.
Day 1 in Cheltenham on the Friday saw the return of Jonbon who won another Shloer Chase. It wasn’t quite the performance we saw last year: the tempo wasn’t the same and I think his run 12 months ago was a top-level performance to win the way that he did. This time round though he was making his own running which was true in Sandown at the back end of last season too, and while he was kept up to the task in the closing stages the result was never in doubt and he was simply there to be shot at. In a better calibre field he should be seen to better effect and I though it was good starting effort.
Potters Charm‘s was undoubtedly the most striking performance of the day after slamming Valgrand who had been so well supported that he went off 5/6 favourite. It’s easy in hindsight, but Valgrand was a bit of a surprise winner in the way he won last time out and that was over 2 miles compared to the 2m 5f here. It now appears that Gale Mahler might just not be as good as she looked in the summer, or at least she’s running around 10lbs lower than that at Prestbury Park. Those two upheld the form from their previous encounter but I mention all this to see how we get a handle on Potters Charm. Did the two behind really want this far of a trip and are they truly performing to their official ratings? I’d say no. But, I’d also say the mark given to Potters Charm of 146 does look much more realistic having put 11 lengths between himself and Valgrand who probably did look over-rated at 140 from last time. They certainly didn’t go slow in this race and that’s testament to Potters Charm’s potential to be a Baring Bingham (set to be sponsored by Turners for the first time this season) or an Albert Bartlett prospect. Thyme Hill was a similar type a few years ago and ended up in the Albert Bartlett, but I don’t think Potters Charm needs to go out any further in trip, especially with this coming on good ground and him having form on slower going too. A tougher conditions Baring Bingham might just be what he needs and he really does look an exciting prospect, but there’s potential for there to be more of these coming through, especially in Ireland so we can wait with him for a while.
Day 2 on Saturday saw East India Dock win in the manner of a serious juvenile. Jumping well and taking chunks out of his rivals on the home straight would suggest his mark of 137 might just under appreciate him. It’s early in the season though and many top juveniles in the spring won’t have been seen just yet. He’s an exciting horse there’s no doubt about that.
Transmission won the amateur jockeys’ chase under Patrick Mullins and you’d think he’d be a National Hunt Chase prospect with the changes coming in to make that a handicap. Unlikely to be a race that’s highly subscribed but with a ceiling of 145 and his current mark being 132 you’d think he’s already in. Still, it will be interesting to see where they go with him and I’d like to see him in something like the Reynoldstown later on this season.
L’Eau Du Sud was really good in the Arkle Trial and I was a little surprised that Lookaway came off the bridle as early as he did. He did finish the race out but I’m not certain he gave his best running. Still, no way would he have been close to the winner as he did slam a field of mid to high 130’s horses so he’s clearly a much better horse now chasing and he’s highly exciting.
Il Ridoto was given a great ride in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and I think he was well found by a few people too. Ginny’s Destiny was pulled up in the end but we know he has a hard time first time up, so he’ll be interesting next time out and in something like the December Gold Cup back in Cheltenham.
Doyen Quest was a ready winner in the 3m handicap hurdle and was backed like he couldn’t be beaten near the off. I thought the ride from the rear was a risky one as I wasn’t convinced about his stamina but I am now and his rise of 10lbs looks like it could be manageable.
Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – Supreme Salvator is Value in Festival Opener
GG’s Cheltenham Festival ante-post book got underway last week, with Dave Young giving his first selection. Here, he provides his second, as he looks at the market for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. ANTE POST BET #2 SALVATOR MUNDI – SUPREME @ 12/1 (LADBROKES, BETFRED, CORAL) Up until late September this year you could have gotten…
Tue 12 Nov 2024Day 3 was marred with losses but we did see a nice chasing debut from Peaky Boy who might just be the type for the re-instated novices’ handicap chase as I think he’ll keep under the 145 ceiling when he’s re-assessed next Tuesday but connections might just have bigger aspirations.
Burdett Road took the Greatwood in gritty fashion by withstanding the late surge from Be Aware, who might just have benefited had the ground been slower. Still, the winner pulled out more when challenged so while I napped the runner up on the Weekend Watch, I don’t feel hard done by. Dysart Enos ran well in my opinion considering the length of layoff and the fact it was her first time in that competitive a race. I think she’ll learn loads from that, and probably more than she has done in any race to date. While I’m sure many will be disappointed that she was a beaten favourite, if this wasn’t a handicap she would have been in receipt of 5 more pounds from this winner with a mares allowance, and would have received an 8lb swing with the runner up. I’m not saying mares can’t win these races, but it does make things harder for them in handicaps.
Over in Navan this weekend we saw a host of Graded races and on Saturday two of three were won by the favourite. Bleu De Vassy took the Grade 3 Novice hurdle but I’d say as expected, while Found A Fifty had to dig deep and survive the stewards to take the Fortria Chase. I certainly wouldn’t have either winner on mind for the spring festivals at this stage. Home By The Lee took the scalp of Bob Olinger in the Lismullen hurdle and I’m sure again he’ll be touted for a stayers hurdle type. He’s a good horse and a likeable horse but he is a Grade 2 horse in my opinion now and is turning 10 at the end of the year.
Wingmen took the opener and while he doesn’t look straightforward, I do think he’s got loads of ability. Lygon Lad came third for the yard and while well beaten he was given an easy enough time of it. He’s just a 4yo who looks like he’ll stay all day and that’s two of the Elliott stable stars he’s been hidden behind now so that certainly looks by design. Can’t wait to see where he goes next and ultimately what sort of a mark he lands on.
Down Memory Lane slammed both King Of Kingsfield and Nurburgring and may have been underappreciated in the market given he was well touted as novice hurdler before things didn’t go to plan over Christmas. He does go well fresh and bigger test will await, but he looks like he could be a very serious horse now chasing and I’d expect he’s a Grade 1 winner in waiting.
On Sunday Navan saw The Yellow Clay land the Grade 3 Monksfield novice hurdle and with ease too. The likes of Death Duty, Samcro, Fury Road, Hollow Games and Croke Park have won this for the yard previously so while it’s early in the season, he might be a Cheltenham horse come March.
Supreme winner Slade Steel was bested by Better Days Ahead, but we saw American Mike take the scalp of Fact To File in the race 12 months ago so it’s certainly too early to be writing him off. He should learn from his mistakes made here, but you’d have to watch him next time out as he didn’t look a natural over them. The winner did though and deserves to be tested in deeper waters next time out.
We also saw on Sunday the King George favourite Il Est Francais fail to complete and his participation in the Boxing Day showcase looks unlikely now. While he won on his penultimate start, he was tailed off in his race prior so two bad runs from 3 would suggest he’s not quite right so that’s seen a shift in the market with Gaelic Warrior taking favouritism.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
With some wet weather about we should hopefully see plenty of action this week and Friday hosts the first of a two-day fixture in Ascot.
Nicky Henderson has a couple of nice prospects who could run in the opener with Kingston Pride a recent winner but more notably the 4yo That’s Nice. The yard hopefully will also send out Lucky Place in the Novices’ Handicap chase as he’s a horse of mine to follow and I’ve no doubt he’s better than his mark of 140. Gidleigh Park for Harry Fry also holds and entry so that would be some clash if the pair did face off.
There’s load of nice names in the 2m handicap hurdle and that might be a prep for many towards the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap back here in December so it’s a must watch as is the bumper on the card which has seen some nice names taste success including Regent’s Stroll last season.
Back at Ascot on Saturday we’ve got lots on show but the feature Grade 2’s include Pic D’Orhy, Djelo, Le Patron and Dashel Drasher for the 1965 Chase, and Blueking d’Oroux, Jango Baie, Salver, Colonel Mustard, Lucky Place, Thunder Rock and Golden Ace all in contention for the Ascot Hurdle.
Staying this side of water, up in Haydock it’s the first British Grade 1 of the season where Grey Dawning is a short enough priced favourite to take the Betfair Chase. I did some trends on the race and I didn’t realise how up against it he might be. Ahoy Senor, Bravemansgame, Capodanno, Hewick, Royale Pagaille and The Real Whacker look likely rivals.
The card kicks off with the Grade 2 Newton Novices’ Hurdle where there a number of interest, but it doesn’t look a top standard renewal at this stage.
Later on there’s the Graduation Chase which could see the return of Hillcrest after a 981 day absence but he might have to face Trelawne, Tahmuras, Boombawn and, more likely, Iroko. Some nice and competitive handicap across the card too with too many names to mention but they’re all going to be informative for the season so can’t be missed.
Saturday in Ireland sees the Grade 1 Morgiana and Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novices’ Chase. Willie Mullins has most of the field in the former and Gordon Elliott has most in the latter, but it’s the potential in the Morgiana that’s salivating. Ballyburn, State Man, Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth might headline in that while Ballyburn does also hold an entry in the Beginners Chase alongside Impaire Et Passe. We’re going to be kept guessing for a couple more days at least as to where Ballyburn goes this season.
On Sunday it’s the John Durkan and the Craddockstown Novices Chase in Punchestown again alongside a listed Mares Hurdle. The Craddockstown looks likely for Firefox although the yard also have Farren Glory entered and in the John Durkan it’s probably going to be round 7 of Fastorslow vs Galopin Des Champs with the scores tied at 3-3 right now. Of course, Martin Brassil’s runner won this 12 months ago but we can throw in the likes of Fact To File and Inothewayurthinkin as potential rivals too.
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