Ante-post markets for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival have begun to develop in earnest and Matty Sutcliffe chances his arm this week on two unraced novice chasers who may just be the pick in the Arkle.
Arkle – Impaire Et Passe 10/1 1pt win + Iberico Lord 50/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The Arkle rates a fascinating race at this stage, as the two at the top of the market are yet to make their seasonal/chase debuts. Ballyburn at 5/2 is to easily be passed over, as I would expect a Flemensfirth gelding, out of an Old Vic mare, to come into his own over further and I’d imagine the Brown’s will be the likely target if going chasing.
Sir Gino is next in there at 11/2, and that’s probably a fair price at this time of year for a G1 winner already mapped out to go chasing. Connections have outlined the Altior route for Sir Gino, but I’d still like to see how he jumps a fence first as he wasn’t the most fluent of hurdlers.
Firefox was somewhat of a bridesmaid last season, placing three times in G1 company behind Slade Steel and Mystical Power, but he made a winning chase debut at Down Royal earlier this month, jumping well in the main in the same contest that Elliott’s won with the likes of Found A Fifty (second in last season’s Arkle), Mighty Potter, Envoi Allen, Samcro and Delta Work. Might slight worry with Found A Fifty would be whether he has enough speed for an Arkle against genuine two milers, as he shaped as if needing further last season particularly against Slade Steel, who would’ve been in the Ballymore had Ballyburn not turned up there.
Inthepocket has been clipped into 8s after bolting up on his second start over fences at Wexford last month having not been seen since finishing second to Facile Vega at Navan last November, and will likely have one more run prior to March given he’s evidently a fragile sort. Visually that was impressive, but there was only one genuine contender he had to beat in Farren Glory, for all he came out and boosted that form well next time out. I couldn’t envisage him being a whole lot shorter than 8/1 come March, though I wouldn’t readily pass him over at this stage in the same sense.
The leading British hope is L’Eau Du Sud, who could hardly have been any more impressive in his two runs over fences thus far. As impressive as it was, I still think there’s better value elsewhere as I wouldn’t be all that sure that beating a horse rated 18lbs inferior by eleven lengths is Arkle winning form, and he was probably entitled to put up a performance like that to ensure he’s capable of at least running in a top level novice chase.
Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips – Matty Sutcliffe Gives a Brave Shout for the Ryanair Chase
Though the 2025 Cheltenham Festival remains a few months away, getting in early with the ante-post markets can be crucial to emerging a winner from the four days. Matty Sutcliffe gives the second of his ante-post series of bets, as an old warrior is backed to return to form in the Ryanair Chase… Ryanair –…
Mon 11 Nov 2024There’s been some gathering noise around IMPAIRE ET PASSE for Willie Mullins for this race, who probably would’ve been one for the old Turners’ prior to it becoming a handicap and he’s likely to show up here if Ballyburn goes elsewhere. Physically, he shapes like an aggressive two mile chaser and arguably brings some of the best, if not the best recent hurdles form to the table. The 2023 Ballymore winner lowered the colours of last years’ Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior there, and subsequently picked up the G1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.
I think connections were expecting him to make up into a Champion Hurdle contender last season, though he had his colours lowered on return by the subsequent Stayers’ Hurdle winner Teahupoo at Firehouse in December. He became somewhat regressive over the winter period, beaten three lengths by stalemate State Man in the Matheson Hurdle for all he was by no means disgraced by the subsequent Champion Hurdle winner. He was certainly put in his place by him next time out when ten lengths adrift, but never looked quite right there and having missed the Cheltenham Festival, he returned to his best with two wins in the spring, beating a rejuvenated Bob Olinger (seven lengths ahead of Champion Hurdle third Luccia) in the G1 Aintree Hurdle in game fashion and was even more dominant when again beating Langer Dan two lengths giving him 2lbs in the G2 Select Hurdle at Sandown.
Those wins came over 2m4f/2m5f, but he boasts enough speed to drop back in trip and progeny of Diamond Boy often improve for a fence and with stamina to boot, Impaire et Passe rates the best bet at the prices for the Arkle at this stage of those unraced over fences.
That said, looking those toward the rear end of the market, I’m also happy to take the 50/1 available for IBERICO LORD prior to his chase debut, as he could be one who slips under the radar after his poor showing in the Champion Hurdle last season.
The son of Cokoriko was one of several Nicky Henderson horses run below par at the Cheltenham Festival, but given he was supplemented for the Champion Hurdle and went off third in the betting at 11/1, it’s evident they expected a lot more.
The coveted Betfair Hurdle winner had L’Eau Du Sud two lengths in behind him there giving away 5lbs, who was subsequently second in the County Hurdle and is now rated 151 over fences after his excellent win in the Arkle Trial last weekend. Given Iberico Lord holds him on hurdles form, at 50/1 he looks an excellent price to consider at this stage particularly with L’Eau du Sud 10/1 for the Arkle.
We’d be hoping for some rain in March as all of his better form has come on a softer surface, but should he show up well first time out over the larger obstacles then I’d imagine this will be the eventual aim for the season and he’ll shorten significantly in the betting.
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