The Queen Mother Champion Chase market was shaken up considerably over the past week. Matty Sutcliffe has found a 40/1 ante-post bet in the race as a result…
Champion Chase – Captain Guinness 40/1 1pt EW 3 places
The Champion Chase has a muddling picture to it. Jonbon tops the market at 5/2 and that’s a deserved price judged on his two Grade 1 successes this season. He looks a much more assured, economical and professional model this season and is arguably the best two-mile chaser around at this stage. I’m happy to let him go in at that price, but it’s a contest that boasts some each-way value.
Outside of Jonbon, there’s Gaelic Warrior, who has to prove it in open company, there’s Energumene who has to prove he retains the same ability as he did prior to his injury, for all he was impressive enough at Cork in the Hilly Way on his long awaited reappearance. There’s also El Fabiolo, who pulled up after a poor exhibition of early jumping in this last season, and was well beaten by Jonbon at Sandown in April. The 2023 Arkle winner perhaps needs a step up in trip these days.
Then we get to the likes of Il Etait Temps, who, for all he is a four time Grade 1 winner, has been well beaten at Cheltenham on all three occasions, and seems to save his best for either right-handed or flatter tracks. Marine Nationale is fifth in the market at 25s, and as I continue to glance down the market, I simply cannot believe that last year’s winner CAPTAIN GUINNESS is available at 40/1.
The son of Arakan was a 16/1 bet for the column last season, where I noted “CAPTAIN GUINNESS has fallen short against El Fabiolo and Jonbon before, but he only has three lengths to find with the latter on their Sandown form from last season and if one of the top three fail to pass the jumping test, then it’s not impossible to see Captain Guinness in the top three.”
It’s never nice seeing one fall/pull up, but that was the worry with El Fabiolo and Captain Guinness capitalised to good effect. It’s certainly concerning that he pulled up on seasonal debut at Navan in a Grade Two he’d won for the past two years, but he pulled up when a 6/4F at Leopardstown in December last season and was still able to bounce back, so I’m happy to write off that recent performance.
It appears unfathomable that last year’s winner is available at such insulting odds regardless of the fortune he was awarded in that contest, but he was still able to dispatch the 164-rated Gentleman De Mee and he backed it up with a neck second to Banbridge in the Punchestown Champion Chase next time out. I’m still of the opinion that he’s nowhere near as classy as the likes of a peak Jonbon, Energumene and El Fabiolo, but as ever at this stage of antepost betting, half the price is assuming one will get there. Captain Guinness is undoubtedly headed this way, and along with the fact his record in two-mile Grade 1 chases over C&D reads 321, his 40/1 odds are insulting at this stage given he’s likely to line up at least half of that come March.
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