Matty Sutcliffe is our man for the early value, and he is looking earlier than ever before. After this weekend’s racing, he has picked out a 25/1 shot for Wednesday at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.
Cheltenham Ante-Post Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle – The New Lion 25/1 1pt EW 3 Places
November is the month where a National Hunt season ramps up a gear, thus we begin the Cheltenham ante-post journey. Before we get stuck into it, I have to admit, as a young, raw racing writer, it took me a while (and I’m by far from the finished article!) to grasp the ‘early look’ columns for GG. Whether that was the flat, jumps of ante-post in general, the consistency wasn’t quite there in the beginning.
Racing has become a fabric of my life now; when I’m not working my full time job my eyes are glued to the form book, the markets and the daily action. If I fire a blank Saturday, it’s straight back to the drawing board on the Monday to view the following weekend’s entries. I’d like to think that within the last few months I’ve had more consistent success which I’ve always strived for, thus I’m optimistic that this new Cheltenham ante-post series (which will be a weekly occurrence) can throw up some nice winners at the Festival.
Viewing the Cheltenham Festival from a punting perspective at this stage wouldn’t be everyone’s cup of tea, as the old cliche goes that ‘the season doesn’t revolve around Cheltenham’, and while that is a valid belief, I’m more inclined to accept and contribute to the inevitable ‘C’ word conversations at this stage of the season. Those magnificent four days of sporting entertainment dangle on our lips the second after that last race in March. It’s our World Cup, Wimbledon, Masters, Olympics, Heavyweight title, Tour De France, Super Bowl, and each week appears to be a fragment in the eventual glorious crescendo.
As ever at this time of year, the Willie Mullins Novices’ dominate the ante-post markets. Salvator Mundi tops the Supreme, last year’s Champion Bumper winner heads the ‘Gallagher’, Ballyburn the Arkle and Browns, Willy De Houelle the Triumph; and that’s just to name a few.
I do find it hilarious how ‘whispers’ appear to move markets. Tony Mullins named Kawaboomga as a potentially smart sort for Willie Mullins and despite only having raced once in France, finishing third in a 4yo hurdle at Auteuil, he’s subsequently shortened into 25s for the Supreme and 33s for the Gallagher’s from 100/1. Remember this time last year, Gaelic Warrior was a stayers’ hurdle candidate, and duly obliged in an Arkle!
Betfair Chase Ante-Post Tips – Matty Sutcliffe’s Early Verdict on Haydock’s Grade 1
This column is the start of a new series of ante-post pieces for GG.co.uk, where I’ll be previewing some of the big upcoming National Hunt races as the early markets come out. We’ll begin with the coveted Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock (Saturday 23rd November), won last year by Venetia Williams’ Royale Pagaille. Headline…
Fri 01 Nov 2024I’ll be sticking to the lens of my own eyes, and my first view is that Dan Skelton’s son of Kayf Tara, THE NEW LION, rates an intriguing contender for the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle. The full brother to the yard’s 144-rated mare Kateira, and half-brother to 2020 Badger Beers winner El Presente (peaked at 148), made a successful debut in a Market Rasen bumper last April when pulling five lengths clear of a subsequent winner, and cemented himself as a promising novice hurdler when bolting up by four lengths at Chepstow last weekend.
Having travelled fluently throughout, Harry Skelton loomed upsides Harry Cobden on Belliano at the last and quickly put the race to bed without even a flinch of the reins. I was impressed with how slick he looked over his hurdles, and even when he was short at a couple he was quickly away into a nice rhythm. It was a performance of class, speed and stamina, three attributes that we should initially look for in a novice festival contender at this stage and Dan Skelton has already earmarked the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury as his stepping stone. The New Lion posted an RPR of 131 there, only 2lbs below Stage Star who won it in 2021 and 10lbs higher than Chianti Classico who won it in 2022. He was three seconds quicker than Quebecois who won the second division by making all, and given the Nicholls’ first time out form, that was a smart performance and adds some immediate substance for The New Lion’s win.
Visually it was taking, and it was interesting to hear afterwards that Skelton originally wanted to make his debut over two miles. I don’t think we’ll see him going up in trip for the Albert Bartlett, and that blend of speed and stamina makes him an obvious Gallagher’s type at this stage. The British contingent for the 2m5f race has been rather sparse of late, with the Irish dominating it since Ben Pauling took it with Willoughby Court in 2017. Dan Skelton hasn’t had a runner in the race since Shan Blue finished 6th in 2020, but he’s scarcely had a worthy contender and I think The New Lion could finally be the perfect mould.
We’re yet to see a Ballyburn type emerge from the cracks of Closutton, though more often than not we’ll be given clues at Christmas hence why I’ve played this each way, but looking toward the top of the market at this stage I wouldn’t be all that enthusiastic about many. It speaks volumes that Redemption Day is in there at 16s. It’s a wide open affair, and on the basis of visuals and pedigrees, I think the 25/1 about The New Lion rates a solid piece of value at this stage as should he back up that performance in the Challow, he’s likely to be clipped into the 10/1 mark.
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