Though the 2025 Cheltenham Festival remains a few months away, getting in early with the ante-post markets can be crucial to emerging a winner from the four days. Matty Sutcliffe gives the second of his ante-post series of bets, as an old warrior is backed to return to form in the Ryanair Chase…
Ryanair – Bravemansgame 33/1
Protektorat was a lovely winner for the column in the Ryanair last season. The thinking was that having been well beaten in the last two Gold Cups, he didn’t quite have the class/stamina required to compete in the highest echelons in National Hunt racing, thus a prominent ride dropping back in trip would give him a much better chance in a naturally weaker contest.
The same logic will be applied this time around, though in the form of BRAVEMANSGAME. I’ve never particularly warmed to him, but he’s similar to Protektorat in the sense that he has the ability to compete in Grade One chases outsider of the Festival, but will always be susceptible to the likes of a Galopin Des Champs, and this seasons’ Gold Cup looks even more competitive.
We shouldn’t forget that like Protektorat, he placed in his first Gold Cup attempt which was why they likely came back again last season. His seven length second to Galopin Des Champs was excellent, but I do think it somewhat broke him given he’s 0-7 since. I wouldn’t suggest he’s entirely gone, and I also think that he hasn’t ever truly stayed three miles+. That sounds ridiculous given his form at the distance, but two of his three wins at the distance came at Kempton, which isn’t the most testing of three miles. The other was when he won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, but it’s worth noting that Eldorado Allen who was in second that day is 0-11 since and was previously beaten 42L in his only try at that trip.
Ever since that Gold Cup, his finishing effort has petered out, yet he’s still one of the most assured jumpers in training. I’ve watched back his latest effort in the Charlie Hall a few times of late, and he never touched a twig. Even when he was short into a couple, he was very clever and economical both getting over the fence and away from it. That last run didn’t suggest to me a horse who’s gone at the game, but one who wants to be let rip in front, attack his fences and drop back in trip.
The concern I’d have with him in the Ryanair would be whether he has enough early speed to be prominent throughout, but I think his style of jumping would naturally take him to the front or at least prominent throughout. He travelled up strongly in the Charlie Hall, swinging off the turn four from home looking the most likely winner, but when push came to shove he was merely one paced and running on the spot. His jumping was the sole reason why he finished second, and he simply didn’t stay strong enough.
Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips – Matty Sutcliffe’s Early Value from the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle
Matty Sutcliffe is our man for the early value, and he is looking earlier than ever before. After this weekend’s racing, he has picked out a 25/1 shot for Wednesday at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. Cheltenham Ante-Post Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle – The New Lion 25/1 1pt EW 3 Places November is the month where a…
Mon 04 Nov 2024The Ryanair is one of those races for horses who aren’t quick enough for two miles at the top level, but don’t quite get the extra two furlongs in a Gold Cup and Bravesmansgame is rapidly moulding in to that type. We shouldn’t forget that he was a Challow winner over 2m4f, and a winner over 2m as a Novice so he has always had some reserve of speed to blend with his underlying stamina.
If you look at some of the horses who’ve won and placed in Ryanair’s of late, Protektorat, Envoi Allen, Hitman, Fakir D’Oudaries, all of them embody that mould of not being quick enough for two, or classy enough for three+ at the Festival. There’s no other logical angle for Bravesmansgame at the Festival other than the Ryanair. I think they’ll give him another two spins over three miles prior to Christmas, culminating in the Ryanair, then they’ll work back from the likes of the Fleur De Lys/Denman Chase en-route to the Festival and if he gets out in to a rhythm in front, then he could be very tough to pass.
I’m not sure that we’ll see the majority of those to the fore of the market turning up: Gaelic Warrior could go either way, Champion Chase or Gold Cup. Jonbon Champion Chase, Il Etait Temps hates Cheltenham, Banbridge needs good ground, Grey Dawning a probable Gold Cup, I don’t think Ginny’s Destiny is good enough though will likely turn up, El Fabiolo is likely to go, I doubt we’ll see Il Est Francais, so I’m not all that sure it will be a much stronger race than last season, which they should’ve gone for with Bravemansgame.
The 33/1 is priced up with the view most think he’ll be kept to three or further, but for all the aforementioned reasons outlined, it would be madness to see him in the Gold Cup again this season. If turning up, then I couldn’t envisage him starting off any higher than a 10/1 shot.
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