We’re at the stage in the season now where potential festival clues might seemingly drop off, but they’re certainly a little more concrete when they do crop up, being so close to the main event. I’ll review what I think needs to be mentioned from last week and I’ve been waiting a little while to advise this next selection, who has been on my radar for a very long time.
TRANSMISSION – NH CHASE @ 9/1 – BET365 NRMB
Sometimes through the season you will see a performance that just screams out a certain target and that was as true as ever when TRANSMISSION won at this track back in November under Patrick Mullins.
That was his second start over fences, and he was well supported, but his debut behind Hyland time before was a very solid display too, considering on figures, he was the lowest rated runner in the field. Didn’t quite have the same closing speed as Hyland, but then he’s a horse who went onto bully a Listed field next time out and then only found one too good in the Kauto Star Novices chase when that turned into a bit of sprint. On that day though, Transmission put seven lengths between himself and Moon D’Orange who has won impressively himself after, albeit back down in trip.
With the NH Chase conditions changing this season, I feel that this horse has stumbled upon a great bit of fortune as going forward you’d expect more staying chase prospects to target this. However, there are very few horses from last season who looked as dour a stayer as he did while hurdling. We’ll remember when Joe Anderson produced one of the rides of the century on this horse in Plumpton back in January 2024 and even that day it looked like Transmission would happily (or maybe lazily) go round again. That’s a track that he has a good affiliation with but now chasing he’s been kept exclusively to Prestbury Park and I love that approach. He’s run after winning came behind another NH Chase contender in Haiti Couleurs who he now has a 4lb swing with for the race in March. I’m sure the winner was game in the finish, but I cannot see how the form isn’t reversed in the NH Chase when they’ll have another half a mile to contend with even without the weights changing. They’ve both prepped over hurdles since and each trainer has cited this race being their targets from some way out. I respect there are a few worthy of being on the shortlist for this race, but I cannot agree that Transmission should be the price that he is.
He’s 12/1 top price in the ante-post proper market, where stake is at risk should he not run for any reason, however the 9/1 NRMB with Bet365 still looks grossly overpriced in my opinion and many others have him shorter. My recommendation is to play him in that market for security as I still think he should be no bigger than 4/1 or 5/1 for this race. It does mean it’s a 20% increase on cost for the same return (£5 to win £60 vs £6 to win £60) but I’m quietly confident about this horse. My only reservations up to now were because Patrick rode him in that November win, so I was concerned the Kim Muir might end up the target so they could team up again. The NRMB removes any monetary risk for that, although I’m sure the trainer wants to run here, and rightly so.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Saturday I think is worthy starting with Naas as their 4yo Rated Hurdle, which opened the card, has produced 4 of the last 6 winners of the Fred Winter. Holy See was well backed for William Durkan who took this race 12 months ago, but the winner was Bacchanalian for Declan Queally who did all the donkey work and held on at the line. Murcia for Willie Mullins almost ran him down and she was well out the back after jumping without conviction. They raced off levels so it will be important to see what the British Handicapper gives the pair for Cheltenham but there’s a case to be for each. The winner had a quick turnaround while Murcia was clearly staying on well and is entitled to improve her jumping although she has had 6 spins over obstacles already. Also on the card, we saw Dinoblue back in the winners enclosure as she got the better of stablemate Allegorie De Vassy who maybe lost the race while Paul Townend chartered a wider course. It was a very good effort from each of them though with a view to Cheltenham for the Mares’ Chase but it’s worth remembering that Dinoblue was conceding 6lbs.
In Newbury we saw Kientzheim falter in the opener and she certainly doesn’t look like a Mares’ Novice Hurdle winner in waiting, but it was a solid enough race with some depth from the front three so I think her and the runner up Tutti Quanti will be well worth following in handicaps when they go down that route. Djelo stepped up in trip to land the Denman Chase and he did so very impressively. His run last time out in Windsor was excusable to some extent but the market spoke confidently for him in this much as it did a few starts back in Huntingdon, and they were right on both occasions. I’m not sure he’s a Ryanair winner this season, but I’d be excited to see him progress over the next couple of years as he’s entitled to be the right type for a King George down the line. Master Chewy then took the Game Spirit and while he was the rank outsider it wasn’t the most surprising result given his form with the favourite Matata from last season. Not seeing Sir Gino was a blow but merely a drop in the ocean compared to Monday when we found out he won’t be seen again this season. Joyeuse took the William Hill Hurdle and did so with the minimum of fuss. Navajo Indy was an eyecatcher back in third, but I do think he really needs soft ground to show his best hand, which he may not get during the Spring festivals.
Up in Warwick we saw 1/5 favourite L’Eau Du Sud maintain his unbeaten Chase record and it was a decent enough effort despite the slight panic in the finish from his jockey. He wouldn’t have been given too much time by me for an Arkle while both Sir Gino and Majborough were in contention, but with just one of those to beat now, and for me his best effort coming at Cheltenham earlier this season, he’s going into March as a genuine player. Worth mentioning Panic Attack too, because she ran very well back over hurdles later on the card and she appears to find chasing much more to her preference. Still, a mare in form is often worth keeping on side so the Plate in March would be an obvious target and chance for her I would think.
On Sunday in Exeter we saw Only by Night take the Listed Mares’ Chase over 2m 1½f but while the front pair pulled away from the other two runners, I didn’t feel like her finishing effort was that of a Mares Chase contender for The Festival. With the Arkle cutting up I think that makes more sense. Fingle Bridge took the Listed Novices’ Hurdle straight after where Regent’s Stroll didn’t really help boost The New Lion form from the Challow but the way he won that race, he deserves to be treated in isolation. Still, must be disappointing for connections of Regent’s Stroll to be looking like he’s either going to take some time to turn into a Graded horse, or he might just have a lower expected ceiling now.
Over in Navan there were a few races worth noting; starting with the Boyne Hurdle which was taken by Maxxum for Gordon Elliott. The market spoke strongly for three in here really but Meet And Greet was the only one of that trio to underperform. I’m not sure we saw Festival clues so much for March, but Farren Glory was certainly a bit of an eyecatcher in third having switched back from fences. His mark of 140 in Ireland looks a workable one and Fadoudal Du Cochet prepped in similar style before winning a Grand Annual. I still wonder if Aintree is the place for Farren Glory though to gain some redemption for his Tolworth Hurdle fall from last season. We also saw a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase where Better Days Ahead came out on top of stablemates Stellar Story and Three Card Brag. On initial reaction, I felt that the winner was maybe fortunate as he was being run down by the second who was giving him weight, and the third made a big jolting error but still finished closer than ideal with my view on the winner being a Brown Advisory prospect. Still, he wasn’t taken along for enough time because of that mistake, they didn’t go too quick, and he still got the job done. A stronger pace in March will see him to better effect, but there really can’t be much between him and Stellar Story now with March in mind. In the bumper, Patrick stayed on home soil despite Fun Fun Fun running in Exeter and that spoke volumes to me before the bumper, but possibly even more so after Copacabana won with plenty in hand. His choice in the Champion Bumper will be interesting with Bambino Fever all the rage after the win under Jody Townend in the DRF, but, like us all, he doesn’t always get it right.