Three weeks out from the Festival and probably one of the most exciting periods is upon us with Handicap entries made today and the weights coming out next week. In terms of the latter, I think I’ll hold back the column as late as needed to be able to provide a bit of detail on the rating differences from Ireland to UK for next week.
While it is an exciting period, it’s also been a difficult time with the loss of Mikey O’Sullivan and it’s a frightening reminder of that worst case scenario. I wasn’t sure if it was appropriate to include this in a column such as this, but I just wanted to share my condolences, and it didn’t feel right to submit this without doing so. The risks attached to this sport are of the highest stakes and it’s difficult to digest the reality; that he went out to do what he loved and suffered the ultimate sacrifice. He’ll forever be remembered for the right reasons and as a man who was brave enough to follow his dreams.
THE CHANGING MAN – ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE @ 14/1 NRMB – WILLIAM HILL
I’ve been adding cheat sheets for every race at The Festival this year and while that’s not the reason for putting up this selection, I will reference that article so you can read it yourself here – Ultima Handicap Chase Trends – How to find Cheltenham Festival’s First Handicap Winner – GG.co.uk
The first Festival Handicap it’s known as being a race for Brits. It’s also a race where the profile of a winner seems to feel very familiar. That’s where those trends come as a reminder that it can be quite simple to find a handful of horses who can win this race.
THE CHANGING MAN was not on my radar for this earlier in the season because I didn’t think we’d reach this stage with him still looking like a horse handicapped to run beyond his mark. His trainer stated at the start of the season that they feel he’ll win a big 3 mile handicap this season and I agreed. He fell in the Badger Beer at Wincanton then ran three consecutive second placed finishes in Premier Handicaps over 3 miles. While up to and including those handicaps he was yet to win a race, he did see off 29 rivals and in each of those races his achieved an RPR in the mid 140’s.
Last time out his trainer pitched him back into Novice company where he was able to take advantage of a dwindling renewal of the Reynoldstown after Lowry’s Bar was a non-runner and Jingko Blue unseated early on. Now that will have somewhat skewed the actual performance of The Changing Man who dominated from the front, jumped boldly and just looked exactly like a horse who had much more experience than his rivals. He looked confident, he looked at ease with everything and once again he looked to be loving jumping fences. Even in his defeats this season he looked like he was trying his best but there comes a point when not getting your head in front must start to throw doubts about your ability and knock your confidence. He’s now coming into this Festival with not only a win under his belt, but an absolute demolition of two rivals. Leave Of Absence was committed early to just not getting involved with the gallop being set by The Changing Man. Peaky Boy possibly had slight doubts about his stamina, but was third over further the time before. He paid the price of trying to keep up with The Changing Man and he’s a horse who put up his own mid 140’s RPR in that last run at Cheltenham over 3m 1½f behind two horses who are very prominent in the NH Chase market.
Maybe people are deciding to think that because the favourite didn’t complete, and because Peaky Boy has changed yards that the form isn’t to be taken literally, but I think I can be, and I think it can be upgraded beyond the 2lb rise from the official handicapper this morning. It was another mid 140’s recorded RPR and the form of his narrow defeat behind Victtorino was franked the same afternoon. With confidence now booming, I see every reason to expect this horse can fulfil his potential of a probably borderline 150s horse.
Now onto the race itself and the Tizzards took this back in 2013 with Golden Chieftain. They’ve typically had a runner in the race most years since 2010, but they’ve only had Oscar Elite to be sent off single figures for the race. He too came from winning a Reynoldstown and he’d placed third in the race the year before behind Corach Rambler. He was rated 139 going into that 2023 renewal but his form hadn’t been anywhere near as consistent as The Changing Mans had been. His 146 RPR in the Reynoldstown was the same as The Changing Mans, but it was in isolation. It was also the first full season that Joe Tizzard had taken over the title as trainer and in 2023 he operated at a 10.8% strike rate yet so far in 2025 he’s running at 22.5%. Early days in 2025, I accept, but he’s certainly a more bedded-in trainer now than he was two years ago and I think both the yard and this horse have turned a big corner this season.
In terms of a profile of the right type for this race, you want:
- A 7–9-year-old, he’s 8.
- Ideally you want a runner in the Top 5 of the betting, he should be.
- One who is rated between 139 and 146, he is.
- One who has won between 1-3 chase starts, he has.
- Is in their first or second season chasing, he is.
- One who has already raced at Cheltenham, he has.
- One who is wearing Cheekpieces, Blinkers or a tongue-tie, he sports a tongue-tie.
- One who is not trained in Ireland, he is not.
So, from a form perspective I think there’s every reason to believe he’s better than his mark, from a profile perspective he ticks every single box and physically he looks every inch a chaser which is why I’m not bothered at all by what he achieved over hurdles. His only run at this track came in the 2023 Pertemps last season where he was 8th of 23 but only beaten 5 lengths. He was plenty keen, he didn’t always jump with fluency but he also didn’t get a clear passage off the back of the last where he was travelling just behind the eventual winner. I think with some more fortune he could have finished closer, and I do think now they’ve been riding him more prominently that we don’t have to worry about keenness. He jumps fences beautifully now, especially the way he’s done the last twice at Ascot, and at speed too. It’s a small comparison, but he jumped 2 out and the last with about the same time in between as Pic D’Orhy did in his Ascot Chase victory over 2m 5f.
It’s a big competitive handicap where many horses will have been lined up for this. Lowry’s Bar is another that’s on the shortlist but him missing last weekend with a vets cert probably isn’t ideal just a few weeks out from the main event. I can only see this horse being found by everyone between now and Day 1 of The Festival so I expect that he goes off favourite for this, and rightly so in my opinion because I think he’s got a favourites chance.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Not a whole bunch to cover from last weekend but Altobelli was a very good winner at Ascot once again and that looks the place and direction for him to continue to shine. He’s a good horse but he’s now up 10lbs which would look to be enough to halt any chance during the spring festivals, even more so with most of those being left-handed. Joyeux Machin was eye-catching enough in behind horses last time out and then ran well here behind a runaway winner. He might be a Coral Cup type horse, but the yard has Be Aware named checked for that, and possibly it might be that’s he not far enough ahead of his mark to take a Festival race (I’m being harsh there I’m sure). He was a 3-miler for Paul Nolan so maybe they’ve got a staying handicap hurdle in mind for him before the season is out.
Pic D’Orhy was a very comfortable winner of the Ascot Chase and that was a long-awaited Grade 1 win for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden after a drought. Corbetts Cross had a case made for him by some good judges and the market spoke strongly for him near the off, but he just couldn’t jump at that pace by the looks of things. You’d think if they did roll the dice in a Gold Cup that we know he stays well enough he would probably place, but they’re not certain to head there and who really wants to take on Galopin Des Champs?
Up at Haydock it was Gwennie May Boy who took the Grade 2 Rendlesham with Nemean Lion a non-runner due to the ground. Dan Skelton’s runner won with ease, but I wouldn’t say it was the strongest of fields he had to beat. They must decide whether to go for a Stayers Hurdle and the Aintree 3-mile Hurdle, or just wait for the latter.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.