Handicap weights have been revealed, and we have the last of the entries now too. Rather than looking at the racing either side of this column I wanted to simply look forward to Festival week with a couple of races I think are worth looking at and I’m going to suggest a few options, including potential block bets.
For those who are unfamiliar with block betting, it’s essentially multiple multiples where you’re giving yourself more than one chance in each leg. The best way to do these block bets is to have every possible outcome available so you would have a different race for every single selection, but online betting doesn’t make this easy to do, you’d have to strike each bet individually. So in this example, and something I do often, is multiple runners from the same event which works very well for The Festival in my opinion as there are always a few you can make cases for.
Maybe I’ve confused things even more with that, but it will become clear as we go through this week’s column. Given the competitive nature of The Festival and the fact we can make a plausible case for many horses in the same events, this is a lower stakes method which can help bring about decent returns and without having to whittle down every race to just one runner.
Handicaps in Cheltenham are great races for this simply because they offer some reasonable prices due to the field sizes and level of competition. There are also some of the non-handicaps which are worth keeping an eye on and The Albert Bartlett is exactly that race at this stage. With both The Yellow Clay and Final Demand expected to go for the Turners (as advised by both trainers), we’re left with a field priced at 7/1 or bigger, but those prices will have to collapse in the next week or so if those two mentioned do not come here.
Therefore, to kick start the selections for consideration for a block bet I’m going to look at this race right now.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES HURDLE
There’s no dispute about JASMIN DE VAUX being a very talented horse, however hurdling hasn’t been his forte and that has seen him fall down the pecking order for his yard, but it might just have to helped him contest an easier assignment. He sported cheekpieces for the first time in the DRF where he looked much quicker over his hurdles, although he didn’t exactly look quick. He’s rapid in between each flight though and in Leopardstown over 2m 6f he tackled 12 hurdles, it was 11 in Naas the time before over 2m4f and it will be 12 in the Albert Bartlett. The best news about this is that it’s half a mile from the back of the second last to the line so there’s every reason to think his class can carry him through this race and his jumping won’t be so much of an issue should he just get over the last. He’s also the type to be well supported, and even more so if Paul Townend elects to ride him, which you think he would.
I put this horse up for The Turners earlier in this series, but despite the fact I now know he couldn’t possibly win that race, I don’t think he’s any less of a horse, he’s not quite as quick as I thought he looked after his hurdling debut.
The other runner in this race who looks another obvious shortener is WINGMEN who also took in the same races as Jasmin De Vaux the last twice, but in each of those he was put to good use off the front. Now I think this horse is above average too, but I think he’s just not quite quick enough to sustain the pace he has been running at over the middle trip Grade 1’s. He’s always been a bit of a keen horse who likes to get on with things, but he certainly looks more relaxed, especially in his last race and while he handles any ground, if he gets a quicker surface then I think this 3 mile trip will be exactly what he wants. He’ll be able to either lay up with the pace or even take these along at a slightly slower pace than over those shorter trips which will help him see the trip out. We’ve seen lots of prominent running styles take this race and even recently you think of Kilbricken Storm or Minella Indo going from the front and just never coming back. Now last year The Jukebox Man did just get collared on the line by Stellar Story but I can see comparison between that pair and what both Wingmen and Jasmin De Vaux might look like in a finish so with the race sure to cut up at the front of the market, I think both these runners are worth getting onside and using block bets is an ideal opportunity to do so.
The Big Westerner, Wendigo and Jet Blue (if the rain comes), could all be viable options for this race too, and they’re other likely shorteners so just because I’ve talked about the two in this column if you don’t agree with them then I’d still consider this race being one to add into your block bet as the value does look to be in this race at the moment.
JACK RICHARDS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
This race is going to be a cracker, and a good bit depends on how current favourite Jagwar handles the 7lb rise he received for a pretty ready victory when he took a big walk in the market. Now it does mean that he’s guaranteed to get into the race now whereas off his previous mark of 132 he might just have struggled to get in, so that’s a scary thought that he could actually be still very well handicapped but at the price he is, I’m prepared to take the chance that he’s probably got a bit in hand but so have some others too.
The most obviously well handicapped horse would appear to be NURBURGRING for Joseph O’Brien who was handed a mark of 143 by the BHA. This 5 year old took the Grade 3 Galway Hurdle off an Irish mark of 139 I the summer and he put up a 149 RPR that day (3lbs higher than Jagwar last time out for reference). He was then 4th in the Irish Cesarewitch when not getting the best of runs I the closing stages and then he had a few spins over fences to see out the rest of the year. The last run of those he jumped poorly but he was OK in the two runs prior. He’s been left since then but does hold an entry this weekend. Last season he was a well beaten 4th in the Triumph but ran well in Punchestown’s 4yo Grade 1 with horses like Storm Heart behind who himself is now rated 147. I think there’s a chance this horse has been laid out for this race, but it’s some campaign to land the Galway Hurdle attempt and Irish Cesarewitch and the have Festival aspirations too. It’s a testament to the horse though and he clearly thrives on the big stage. Possibly tight enough in the betting, but could just be the right type should the ground come up quicker to be more suited to that than the favourite and you could see him being supported on the day.
The other runner of interest in here for me is PIC ROC who has been well touted by his trainer for this race and the yard are flying at present, it also brings in Lord Of Thunder for the Tizzard’s for the home team too but there’s plenty of reason to think that we’ve not seen the best of Ben Pauling’s runner just yet. It was a quick enough turnaround for his latest effort but he needed that run to qualify for this. It was also over 3 miles which brings into question the NH Chase under new conditions as a race option, but his trainer has named checked this, and I think he’s a middle-distance horse all day long. He handles any ground and his mark of 137 will see him get into this.
Bet Recommendations
NURBURGRING @ 8/1 NRMB – GENERALLY
PIC ROC @ 14/1 NRMB – GENERALLY
with
JASMIN DE VAUX @ 10/1 NRMB – GENERALLY
WINGMEN @ 10/1 NRMB – GENERALLY
There are 4 doubles here so it would be 8 lines if you placed the bet each way and at the prices, you’d return £7.80 for the lowest paying place double across the two races, but of course, you could potentially get 0, 1, 2 or 4 of those.
The win part of any bet would pay £99 and that’s from £1 lines so as little as a £4 total stake so roughly a 25/1 winner with a bit of cover in two races.
I’m not saying this is a winner in waiting, but it’s certainly a bet style that’s worth considering in my opinion and it doesn’t have to be these horses, it doesn’t have to be just 2 in each race you can afford more cover if that’s what you’d prefer, and you could even add in more races if you want to go for a bigger payout, but obviously the amount of bets increase with that.
Of those horses I’ve selected, again it doesn’t mean you have to just follow me in, but I think there are plenty of options in plenty of races where it’s worth looking at some of these bet types and they can provide a great interest across the week, even more so if you manage to get an early winner in the bet and you’re sat with the potential for big returns without having to increase your outlay.
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