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Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – Mullins Can Land Martin Pipe Again with Dublin Racing Festival Runner-Up

In the wake of the DRF, this will be a poignant moment for long term Festival punters. While it’s cleared up several things, sadly not of all of those are good news. We’re inside five weeks from the Festival now so there’s plenty of time for more upsets and setbacks, but this week the ante-post book took a few knocks.

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Gerri Colombe was put up right at the start of the series, and while his defeat earlier in the season was cause for concern, the right vibes were coming from Gordon that it was still all roads leading to Cheltenham. Missing his Christmas engagement was a concern again, but the plug has finally been pulled on him for this season, which has probably only sped up the result of that selection anyway.

Salvator Mundi was looking like a default favourite for The Supreme that you’d probably want to take on, but there wasn’t anything to do so with confidence. Enter Kopek Des Bordes, who was quite well touted early this season, made on OK debut but still needed to step forward from it and boy did he do that this weekend. He’ll come into the Supreme now with an OR of 157 which is higher than the likes of Douvan, Vautour and Altior on 155. I’d say he looks the most solid favourite of the week and the odds-against about him look generous with the lack of depth in behind.

Lastly, it was a slight knock for The Yellow Clay who was put up last week, where I contemplated adding Final Demand for the Albert Bartlett too. Final Demand hacked up in the Nathanial Lacy and it looks like he’s Turners bound but I’d say there’s a chance he could still step up for the Albert Bartlett. Still, The Yellow Clay for me looks Turners bound, and while taking on Final Demand would probably mean his price isn’t any value at this stage, there’s a chance we avoid him and that’s the nature of rolling the dice. We buy our ticket, and we (hopefully) take our chance.

Many were on the shortlist but it’s just one more for consideration this week.

KARNIQUET – MARTIN PIPE @ 10/1 – BET365 NRMB

There are a few obvious horses than fell on many handicap radars. Naturally Nimble and Willy De Houelle for the Fred Winter, Be Aware and even Shanbally Kid for a Coral Cup but the one that jumps out for a potential Martin Pipe winner was Karniquet.

He’s been given an OR in Ireland of 144 and the ceiling for this race is 145, so that’s a bridge we have to cross in time, but worst case scenario is he doesn’t get in, it’s a NRMB bet anyway so whatever scenario where he doesn’t come here we’re covered. If he does though, I think he’s going to be favourite, so from a price perspective, it seem remiss to not add him to the book at this point.

It’s been a race where the last winning favourite came in 2011 courtesy of Willie Mullins and Gigginstown’s Sir Des Champs. It’s a race that Gigginstown have fared well in with Champagne Classic and Blow By Blow winning since and even Column Of Fire was in with every chance when falling late on. Now I took this angle in with Quai De Bourbon last year who just found a couple too good, but he did end up going off at just 4/1. He was beaten by Better Days Ahead and Waterford Whipsers, both of which were well touted for the race too. At SP’s of 5/1, 100/30 and 4/1 it still would have shown a profit betting the trio, but if you can get on at bigger prices, it’s less of a mental block to take cover in the race.

You’d think that he’d be handicap bound should the BHA take a view that his mark is about right. Kopek Des Bordes is clearly an absolute weapon, but being so highly rated has meant the knock onto Karniquet has seen him a few pounds higher than he might have been, and I think the UK handicapper won’t touch him. If he gets in here, especially after Kopek Des Bordes just continues to shorten, we’re going to see this horse’s price reduce significantly, which is why I think he’s needs to go up this week.

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THE WEEK JUST GONE

There was some good racing in Musselburgh and Sandown, but the Festival Focus was over at The Dublin Racing where last season I think it was 11 of the 27 winners came from.

Final Demand kicked things off on Saturday with a very good performance winning by 12 lengths and slamming his stable mates. Wingmen ran a big race to finish second again which boosts the form somewhat for The Yellow Clay with Jasmin De Vaux further behind just like in Naas. Supersundae failed to finish, but he was in a first-time hood and tongue-tie combination which clearly didn’t work. Mozzies Sister was 17 lengths behind but helps the form stand up to being Grade 1 level having finished a handful of lengths behind both The Yellow Clay and The Big Westerner on her previous two starts. A last word on Final Demand though was that Paul did bury him on the rail with horses on his outside. He was left-hand down at the last too and on debut despite racing right-handed, he jumped that way too. Now it’s not a huge issue by virtue of this performance, but it’s worth noting all the same.

In the Juvenile hurdle after we saw Hello Neighbour confirm form from Christmas with Lady Vega Allen and he too was sporting a first-time hood. He won well but the bunched finish would suggest to me that the Brits have the Triumph in their hands with Lulamba and East India Dock looking far better at this stage. Galileo Dame was second but needs a third run if she’s going to take part in a Fred Winter while Willy De Houelle, as mentioned before, ran better while still keen early on. His Irish mark of 138 probably only looks OK, but he was of course this summer’s answer to the Triumph Hurdle proper so he’s likely to be better than that.

In the Irish Arkle we saw a both brilliant and not so good performance from Majborough who jumped quite erratically at many fences, but then in the end, won like he could have jumped twice as many and still slammed his rivals. It’s very hard to split both him and Sir Gino at this moment in my opinion and his RPR of 164 vs Sir Gino’s 166 at Kempton would agree with that. He also has Cheltenham winning form, so there’s certainly an argument that he deserves to be shorter in the Arkle betting, but it certainly looks a two-horse race. Firefox was dropped to 149 and I wonder if he’ll be considered for a Handicap this spring. His better form now looks to be at the middle trip although I saw him as an out an out 2-miler so I’m happy to accept I’m probably wrong now. Ile Atlantique though did what he did last season and fall off on his third run. He was worse on his 4th last season too, so it’s hard to forgive him again.

Galopin Des Champs was godly once more, and it’s long been the case we knew this horse was very special. The knocks to his form in Punchestown are clearly related to that track, which I think up to now has created the stance that he’s not a great if he can’t do it both ways round. But, he’ll soon be a 3-time gold cup winner and despite his Turners last fences fall, he’ll be remembered as a 5-time Festival winner too. Tactically they were trying to get Fact To File to settle which I think they managed to do. There was no evidence to suggest another two furlongs would help his case to better Galopin Des Champs in March though so while JP will want a Gold Cup runner, I don’t think he has a chance doing what he did here again. That said, it was an educational ride, so they might decide to be more positive on him and if he settles on the front end, there’s a chance it might work for him. His jumping isn’t the best when going this slow though and we saw in the John Durkan what he can do off a furious pace so the Ryanair would surely be right up his street, for this season at least.

On Sunday we saw Ballyburn run out an impressive winner of the Novice Chase over 2m 5½f. I know plenty will say his jumping wasn’t as good as you’d like, and he was losing lengths, but don’t forget he was going from setting the fractions on a quick 2m Kempton last time out to having to settle a bit more over this longer trip. Much like Fact To File, it was expected to be an educational round and the way he looked like he might be in trouble at the last and in a stride later he made in running doubters (like myself), look foolish, was just something like the Ballyburn from last year. I’ll say this though, he’s not as far clearly over fences from his rivals as he was over hurdles, and I still think a horse like Better Days Ahead who grinds might give him plenty to think about. His stablemate Dancing City has every chance to go close too, but Ballyburn will be better up at 3 miles on this performance and he’s certainly the one to beat in March. His top price for the Browns is probably a bit generous at this stage.

Kopek Des Bordes was a little keen pre-race, and I thought Paul Townend might be forced to race prominently throughout but he kept enough of a lid on his mount for the first four hurdles. Over the next three hurdles he just travelled better and better so by the time 2-out came along he was already in a league of his own being led by the loose horse. From after the back of that flight, Paul just let him go his own pace and he never had to be asked for an effort. He really does just win in March, even in a vintage year I wouldn’t have him beat, so in a lacklustre one I think he’s going to go off odds-on for the curtain raiser. Karniquet ran into second and as mentioned looked like a horse who could be much better than a handicapper but things this season may have allowed him to get a workable opening mark. Kaid D’Authie was rumoured to not be making the meeting in the week and his jumping was very deliberate. He looks a nice prospect for the future, but over further and in time too.

Solness took another Grade 1 in Ireland while Gaelic Warrior was laboured in behind throughout. I think it needs to be remembered that he was favourite for a Stayers Hurdle last year, he’d have more race in that race this year than he does a Champion Chase, and I think he’ll be Ryanair bound if Fact To File doesn’t go there. Still hard for an Arkle winner to not try his hand in the Champion Chase this season though, but for all that they say he hates Leopardstown, he did win at the DRF a couple of years ago. Marine Nationale looked to be coming to win the race but just didn’t see it through. I’m not sure whether it was ability, breathing or him not doing much when close enough, but he ran well again which was good to see, but I can’t forgive two defeats to Solness being good enough form to expect him to win in March. I could well be wrong there and I’ll hold my hands up if I am, but I wouldn’t say the 10/1 NRMB about him is screaming to be backed.

State Man did win another Grade 1, but it was a race marred by the fall of Lossiemouth. That’s got to be a huge negative to her chance in March, but I’d say they’ll still be going to the Champion Hurdle with her providing she’s come out of the event sound, that is unless Brighterdaysahead comes here. As for State Man, well it was set up to be exactly what you wanted with Lossiemouth giving him a tow round. We’re left scratching our heads as to how it would have played out but while Cheltenham isn’t his best track, I do think he’s a bit of a big price for the Champion Hurdle when he’s got every reason to at least make the frame. You’re able to bet him at 6/1 NRMB at this stage to make a small profit for him just placing, and we know on his day he wouldn’t be a shock winner in retaining his title. Not a bet I’ve struck myself but could be a betting W/O opportunity come the day where it’s impossible for Paul Townend not to choose him again over Lossiemouth.

Bambino Fever took the Mares’ Bumper in very good fashion, and it was a third win in the race for Jody Townend. I’d say it was worthy of consideration for a Champion Bumper in March as she tanked through the line and looked to have finished the race with plenty of running. The long straight in Cheltenham where they getting racing a long way out would look to suit this winner, so understandably she’s vying for favouritism in March, but I’d happily wait until the day for her.

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