The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us, but Dave Young’s preparations for the week began long ago. He reviews his season’s suggestions below as the Festival nears its opening.
We’re one week away from the Festival so this is the last instalment for this season’s ante-post book, so I think it’s time to summarise the selections:
- GERRI COLOMBE (GOLD CUP) @ 16/1
- SALVATOR MUNDI (SUPREME) @ 12/1 now 13/2
- LUCKY PLACE (STAYERS HURDLE) @ 25/1 now 10/1
- JASMIN DE VAUX (TURNERS) @ 12/1
- IMPERVIOUS (MARES’ CHASE) @ 7/1
- BETTER DAYS AHEAD (BROWN ADVISORY) @ 16/1 now 8/1
- MAUGHREEN (MARES’ NOVICE) @ 4/1 NRMB now 7/2
- JAMES’S GATE (CORAL CUP) @ 12/1 NRMB
- THE YELLOW CLAY (TURNERS) @ 8/1 now 7/1
- KARNIQUET (MARTIN PIPE) @ 10/1 NRMB
- TRANSMISSION (NH CHASE) @ 9/1 NRMB now 6/1
- THE CHANGING MAN (ULTIMA) @ 14/1 NRMB now 6/1
We do have 3 ante-post rules bets which are lost already and there are 2 bets which were struck under NRMB terms, therefore the total outlay of 12 points has reduced to 10 points at this stage.
I’ve updated the current prices using ante-post prices for the ante-post terms bets and NRMB priced for those which were advised under those conditions. From this we can work out what the cost to buy the same potential profits would be had we waited for the prices as they are today which would come out at 12.5 points, so we’re at least on the right side of things.
An example of this calculation – Lucky Place at 25/1 would cost 1 point to return 25 points profit, at 10/1 it would cost 2.5 points to return 25 points profit.
I also recommended 4 runners across 2 races in last week’s entry for doubles which were Nurburgring and Pic Roc for the Plate (8/1 and 14/1 NRMB respectively) & Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen for the Albert Bartlett (both 10/1 NRMB), but there’s been no change to these.
I’ve also recommended a Lucky 15 for consideration which you can read here: Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15s – Dave Young Gives His Four Best Bets for Your Multiples – GG.co.uk
DO WE HAVE ANY WINNERS IN WAITING?
SALVATOR MUNDI (SUPREME)
Undoubtedly Willie Mullins’ first string is Kopek Des Bordes for this race who looks to have a favourites chance and on known form is better than this field, but there’s always room for improvement which is where all is not lost with Salvator Mundi. Had we not seen the performance we did in the DRF from his stable mate, he’d likely be heading this market but of course not having Paul Townend on board is going to be a negative and the headgear winners of the Supreme are far and few between. Certainly not out of things, and I’m glad he’s in the book, but he is most likely going to end up a value loser on the day.
LUCKY PLACE (STAYERS)
When Lucky Place was put up for this race there was a fair bit of time between then and now for him to have explored the 3-mile trip that is the Stayers’ hurdle but we don’t have that evidence going into The Festival. Nicky Henderson has been very upbeat about him getting the trip and has often spoken with confidence about his chance for this race which is certainly a positive. Teahupoo has always been and still is the horse to beat in here and the bar set by him might not be completely out of reach, but it’s still going to require a career best effort form anyone in this field to get to him. Lucky Place has the most scope to find that bit more now trying a new trip in theory so I’m respectfully optimistic. By that, I mean I still believe he’s the potential fly in the ointment but at the same time there’s more chance he doesn’t managed to topple the favourite than there is that he does.
BETTER DAYS AHEAD (BROWN ADVISORY)
Gordon Elliott has been bullish about many horses through his career, but I didn’t get the most confidence from him after Better Days Ahead won last time out. Might be that he’s a little idle and will strip better for a stronger pace and being taken through the race for longer, but he does need to show a bit more to beat Ballyburn in here. On figures he probably has half a stone to find with the favourite but over this trip and at this track, it’s plausible he might just be able to bridge that gap. I’d say we’ve got a bit more chance than his current price would suggest if this better race does indeed bring more out of him, but he’s another selection who might well need the favourite to falter somewhat to actually win the race.
MAUGHREEN (MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE)
I wasn’t exactly blown away with her hurdling debut and neither was the market with her still available just a half a point shorter than when advised, but Maughreen is entitled to improve significantly from that effort. It might just be that the very best horse doesn’t always win this race with the likes of Brighterdaysahead beaten here and Honeysuckle missing the race. That’s a very negative view on a horse’s chance of landing a race; that they might not be the best horse, but they might just be the best on the day. A chance the hype around this mare through her pedigree and name might just have blindsided enough of us, because she does look plenty short enough. Then again, I wanted to strike before she ran, because there was always the chance I’d be in this sort of mindset after anything other than a demolition job on debut. She has her chance but I didn’t gain us any value.
THE YELLOW CLAY (TURNERS)
There’s still some chance that this horse does go out in trip for the Albert Bartlett, but I’m as convinced now and I was when I suggested this bet that the Turners is made for him. The quicker ground we might encounter next week will only help him show his speed and I think he is a quick horse. No doubt it’s a proper race with Final Demand and The New Lion both looking like horses with very bright futures. I’d still side with the fact that Final Demand might not have the tactical speed to win this race, and while we don’t know what’s under the bonnet of The New Lion, he didn’t exactly quicken away from his rivals on his penultimate win. This will be, and often is, a very interesting race as they turn in because we’ve seen many renewals where getting the inside rail and first run can be enough to make the difference between winning and losing. I’d also still be concerned that Final Demand does seem to want to go out to his right and he could swing wide at that stage of the race. It’s going to be a great watch, but hopefully we get first run, and in doing so I still believe he’s the one to beat in here despite the market not being in agreement.
TRANSMISSION (NH CHASE)
Good bit of guesswork comes into a race like this with many horses looking eye-catching but over this marathon trip there will be no hiding place for horses who don’t see out the distance. I’m still confident that Transmission will relish this test and while I accept the unknowns of his Irish rivals means that confidence can only be so high, I can’t see him out of the frame, and I can see him rallying all the way to the line which might just be the difference. I appreciate his jumping isn’t always the straightest but I’m not worried it would hinder his chance, and I hope he’s just allowed to go about his business and let the race unfold in front of him where I do just see him staying on up the hill and passing horses.
THE CHANGING MAN (ULTIMA)
Well found in the market now but I touched on the fact he’ll be a popular pick for this race once the dust had settled and I still can’t see how he doesn’t run a big race in here. Katate Dori is a horse I have great respect for and seeing him at Kempton does slightly worry me should he line up in here, but I think the experience that The Changing Man has in these race types and over fences, means he’s probably worth the 3lb difference between them on that alone. Sam Thomas has stated this is his first preference but he’s 37 on the list with a maximum field of 24. I’m still hopeful that we’re on the right horse, but I’d certainly prefer to see most runners above Katate Dori the weight stand their ground for tomorrows confirmation stage.
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