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Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips – Latest Selection in “Lucky Last” Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

The Martin Pipe is the closing race of the Cheltenham Festival. With handicap potentials now emerging, Matty Sutcliffe has picked out a 20/1 selection to consider in the lucky last…

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Martin Pipe – Mozzies Sister 20/1 NRNB 1pt WIN 

I was stuck in two minds with this selection, as the 40/1 NRNB about MOZZIES SISTER for the Albert Bartlett looks just as appealing given she was only four lengths behind The Big Westerner at Limerick on Boxing Day who’s the second favourite at 7/1 for the race. Connections have mentioned the Albert Bartlett as a potential target hence the NRNB concession play in here, but off a mark of 130 (plus say 3/4lbs from the UK handicapper), I think she could rate a cracking bet if turning up for the Martin Pipe. 

The daughter of Arctic Cosmos was a relatively cheap store purchase, but she went on to win her point to point impressively by twelve lengths before dotting up an even further margin in a Cork bumper last March, posting a 12lbs higher RPR than when the subsequent Mares Novice second and Ebor Handicap winner Magical Zoe won the race in 2022, and a 5lbs higher RPR than when the subsequent 2021 Mares Hurdle winner Black Tears won it in 2018. 

Mozzies Sister was a half a length second in a Punchestown G3 Mares Bumper next time out, with the third now rated 136 over hurdles having won a G3 mares contest last time out. She went on to win and place in two subsequent bumpers, latterly in listed company, before opening her account on hurdles debut run good style at Galway in October. 

She proved that two miles was perhaps short enough for her next time out when running a big race in third in the G2 Navan Novice Hurdle over 2m4f, staying on well in rear to be beaten five lengths behind The Yellow Clay, who backed that form up when an eight length winner of the G1 Nathaniel Lacy now rated 148. 

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Mozzies Sister then improved again when beaten four lengths by The Big Westerner in a Limerick G2, and I thought her performance could be slightly upgraded. She was held up in rear in the six runner field and they went a crawl throughout. She made good headway in between horses on the downhill run toward the straight and came widest of all on the outer alongside The Big Westerner, but she didn’t quite have the same finishing kick as the winner, who also the final two on a much better stride. I thought the manner with in which she stayed on was impressive, but she strikes me of one who would prefer to come off a strong pace in a big field as opposed to being held up in a steadily run affair. 

They switched up tactics in the Nathaniel Lacy and rode her more prominently, just sitting off the quarters of Wingmen in front. She jumped well in the main, and the only minor error she made was the seventh which she quickened up well from, suggesting she’s learning all the time. She jumped well two out and was one of just three still travelling well, but was ultimately done for speed by the impressive Final Demand. The switch of tactics was interesting as I think they’ve been riding her in rear to get the three miles trip as opposed to riding her confidently in front, and rather than getting the 2m7f distance at Limerick, I think it was more a case of travelling well into the race off a sedate gallop past beaten horses. To my eye, now they’ve ridden her prominently in a truly run G1 contest over 2m6f, I don’t think the three miles in an Albert Bartlett would bring out the best in her. 

With that in mind, I’m hoping they drop her back in trip to the 2m4f of the Martin Pipe where she can race at a solid gallop and travel strongly in behind the leaders, and given she likely does have some stamina reserves, she’ll be sure to be staying on up the hill. I also think she could potentially be thrown in off a mark of 130 when you consider The Yellow Clay is rated 148. She evidently boasts enough speed for the middle distance trip given her form in bumpers, she boasts a plethora of graded experience behind some of the top novices going into the Festival, and she’s a seemingly uncomplicated sort who’s only improving with racing. 

The obvious caveat is that she would need another run to qualify for the race, but there’s plenty of time should connections wish to follow this path and we’ve at least got the NRNB concession to cover our backs.

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