The Stayers’ Hurdle picture has looked similar for much of the season, but that has ensured there is still value throughout the market. Matty Sutcliffe believes he has found an, each-way play at odds of 33/1…
Stayers’ Hurdle – Monmiral 33/1 1pt EW 3 places
While the handicap entries have been released today, there’s one more selection outside of those contests that I’m keen on playing, before naturally the next few pieces will likely focus on the handicaps.
The fate of the Stayers’ Hurdle largely depends on how much rainfall we have coming up to the Thursday. Last year’s winner Teahupoo is the worthy favourite to regain his crown, but he is utterly ground dependent and at Evens, he looks worth taking on at this stage in case the ground comes up somewhat on the better side of soft. Outside of Teahupoo, the Stayers’ division is incredibly weak, and certainly lacks star quality. Home By The Lee is on the brink of such quality, hence his second place in the market, but he’s come up short in the last three renewals (6th, 5th, 3rd) and while he has won his last two, it was the same case in 2023 (RPR’s of 160, 163) going into the Stayers’, but he ultimately failed to land the hat-trick. He’s beaten Bob Olinger the last twice, formerly when receiving 6lbs, and latterly over a trip that probably doesn’t see Bob Olinger at his best. While he possibly deserves his place in the market, I’d argue that’s more due to the competitiveness of the division as opposed to his actual chances.
Next we have Lucky Place, whose chances are ever growing in traction as Nicky Henderson seems to light up whenever he speaks about him. He’s unbeaten on his last two starts having showed up well in the Coral Cup last season, but he steps up into unknown territory trip wise and his pedigree doesn’t necessarily suggest he’ll improve for a stiff three miles. Both Gowel Road and Golden Ace have franked the form since, but neither of those were racing at their optimum trips that day which pours a touch of cold water over the form, and I just wonder whether Lucky Place is a middle distance specialist, and will be primed for the 2m4f G1 Aintree Hurdle instead.
The Wallpark’s target is up in arms as he’s qualified for the Pertemps, but he’d likely be competing in that race off top-weight and JP McManus has another favourite for the contest in Jeriko Du Reponet, who is certainly more favourably treated by his mark than The Wallpark. The latter has to come into the reckoning for the Stayers’ if so, but I’m always wary of these summer horses as it’s a long old season to be in training all year around, and while he did finish up well in the Long Walk Hurdle, I wonder whether that was due to benefitting off a good pace set by Beauport, passing beaten horses.
The market is a muddling picture outside of those four, but one who may be going slightly under the radar at a large price is last year’s Pertemps winner MONMIRAL. The son of Saint Des Saints was a progressive hurdler in 2020/21, winning the G2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle before taking the 4yo G1 Hurdle at the Aintree festival.
He was set a stiff task as a 4yo in the Fighting Fifth on seasonal debut as a 4yo, though not entirely disgraced against seasoned G1 hurdlers. He went slightly backwards over hurdlers after that, though still finished second to Epatante in a G1 at Aintree, and then was sent novice chasing in 2022. He was a seven-length second to Jonbon and a three-length second to The Real Whacker, who both enhanced their credentials at Cheltenham in March that year. He went backwards against after that, failing to trouble the judge closer than fifteen lengths in five subsequent efforts, but after qualifying for the Pertemps on his first start back over hurdles, he bounced back to form emphatically with success in the Pertemps Final at 25/1 when giving a stellar ride by Harry Cobden in rear. I watched the race back prior to writing this, and I was amazed by how much more ground he covered by racing widest of all, yet still had enough energy to make strong headway just before the turn for home under a confident looking Harry Cobden. Once push came to shove, the response was immediate in spite of finding a bit of trouble. He jumped the last in tandem with Kyntara who led the field the whole way, and ended up winning a shade cosily. I thought it was a performance that could be seriously upgraded on account of his track position, particularly given the majority of the handicap winners that year had all come from prominent/midfield positions.
He admittedly failed to back that effort up at Aintree, but Cheltenham form rarely correlates to Aintree and while he was disappointing on seasonal debut, he was likely only going to ensure qualification for the Pertemps. His three length second to Strong Leader was a solid piece of form however, as Strong Leader was 12lbs better off at the weights and is at his very best on flat tracks like Newbury. I’d imagine the initial aim was for Monmiral to drop a couple pounds in the weights to go back for the Pertemps, but he jumped the last marginally in front of Strong Leader there and Harry Cobden was forced to play his hand. He posted a 4lbs higher RPR than his Pertemps win in a race that probably wasn’t run to suit, and the Long Distance Hurdle has been a good early season pointer for some of these top stayers at the Festival.
Monmiral matched that effort last month with a second to Gowel Road in the Cleeve Hurdle when again unsuited by being held up in the small field with the winner suited by his prominent pitch. It was slightly concerning not to see Monmiral going past Gowel Road when seemingly holding every chance, but given the Nicholls’ stable form at the time, perhaps he wasn’t quite at his best. However, he was giving 6lbs to Gowel Road whose half his price now for the Stayers’, and I’d imagine the race will fan out more favourably for Monmiral with a bigger field to boot.
Sire Du Berlais was able to land the Pertemps/Stayers double recently so it can be done, and given Monmiral was able to peak at last year’S Festival, I’d be of the opinion that we’ve yet to see him hit his best this season and now that he’s shown consistent form in some key trials this season, he looks a standout each way price to at least fill the frame in the Stayers’ Hurdle come March for a yard who ruled this division with Big Bucks for multiple years.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.