With the New Year settling in and the festivities wandering into the shadows, it seems an appropriate time to recap where we stand on the Cheltenham ante-post journey thus far.
Our first selection was The New Lion at 25/1 for the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle. The son of Kayf Tara was exceptional in the G1 Challow at Newbury last time out, winning firmly on the bridle and I don’t think we’ve even scratched the surface with him just yet. As a result, JP McManus has acquired him for his festival battalion for what presumably is a record-breaking fee, and he sits comfortably at the head of the market as the 11/4 favourite. We still have the Dublin Racing Festival to contend with, and there’s a strong possibility that something will come out of the woodwork there to knock The New Lion off his perch, but as things stand, we couldn’t be in a better position with the inaugural selection.
Our next play was Bravemansgame for the Ryanair at 33/1 and while there was method in the madness, connections have opted against sending him to Cheltenham altogether as there’s no sign of him in the Gold Cup or Ryanair entries released today.
Our two Arkle shouts Iberico Lord and Impaire Et Passe had initially jumped off on the right path. The former was a comfortable winner on chase debut at Kempton in a race previously won by Altior and Shishkin en-route to Arkle success, but Nicky Henderson was less impressed than I was with his overall performance and though he was well in contention at Ascot next time out, falling two out probably ruled out any hope that we’ll see him at Cheltenham. Impaire Et Passe, on the other hand, is two from two over fences and was one of a very few Willie Mullins-trained stars to shine brightly over the festive period when easily taking the G1 Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick last month. It was a similar performance, albeit the form was perhaps of lesser significance, than when Gaelic Warrior won the race last season en-route to Arkle success and that gives us strong hope that he’d show up well in the Arkle. It was, however, slightly disappointing to hear Mullins pour water on his chances of going to Cheltenham as he probably views him more of a 2m4f sort, and the changes to the Turners’ have certainly dampened his festival chance. That said, Gaelic Warrior was favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle at some point last season, so all hope is not entirely gone.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup was up next, and I was happier than most with Monty’s Star’s seasonal debut at Tramore on New Years’ Day. While he was a beaten 4/5F, His form fresh previously read 224232 and he looked to absolutely hate the track at Tramore. Embassy Gardens was a shock winner, but he posted a career best effort there and he’s always threatened to land a big pot over fences, and Mullins has now stated he’ll enter the Gold Cup picture. Henry De Bromhead used the race as a prep run for Jungle Boogie last season who ran an excellent race in the Gold Cup, and Willie Mullins successfully used it twice for Al Boum Photo. I’ve no doubt Monty’s Star will have to improve dramatically to hit the frame in the Gold Cup, but he’ll have come on bundles for the run and I’ve not lost too much faith in the selection.
Our next selection was the first 2pt win, with Ballyburn at 4/1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and a very, very speculative shout for the Gold Cup, though rather unsurprisingly he hasn’t been given an entry. At the time, Ballyburn’s route was still up in the air regarding the Arkle or the Browns, but I was very confident there wasn’t a prayer that this son of Flemensfirth, out of a Old Vic mare, would be seen to best effect over two miles.
That was exactly the case at Kempton in the Wayward Lad when beaten seven lengths by Sir Gino, who’s already being given Altior/Sprinter Sacre comparisons. I don’t think that’s far off the truth, as he was electric on that chase debut and Ballyburn simply couldn’t match his quick, efficient style of jumping. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and I just wonder whether they sent Ballyburn there to sharpen up his jumping and make a man out of him. He only made one bad mistake which was the last, though it scarcely dented his momentum and he galloped all the way to the line. He remains around the 7/2 / 3/1 mark, and the only one at this stage I’d say he has to worry about is The Jukebox Man. He’s penciled in for the 2m5f chase at the DRF, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him a best priced 2/1 for the Browns afterwards.
We returned to the bigger prices with the next selection in Captain Guinness for the Champion Chase at 40/1, and even after his poor two runs this season, 40/1 for last year’s winner is still a reasonable bet in my opinion, more so for the each way factor. The ground was lively enough for him at Leopardstown in a race won by Solness at 28/1 last time out, but he’s only going to be trained for one day in the calendar given his form figures of 21 in the Champion Chase, and while he does require some faith, a clean round of jumping can easily see him sneak in to the frame with only a couple (Jonbon, Energumene. Gaelic Warrior/Il Est Francais, El Fabiolo Ryanair?) credible opponents for win purposes at this stage.
On to the Mares play now and I was slightly disappointed with Metkayina at Taunton having been so impressive at Lingfield the time before. She was a drifter on the day, and raced freely under a tight hold throughout. She hurdled fluently enough, and jumped the last flight down the back in front, but I think those keen exertions took their toll as she weakened quickly off the bend and looked one paced up the run in. By Diamond Boy out of a heavy ground winning mare, she might improve for softer ground and I wouldn’t be given up on her entirely particular given Diva Luna franked the form next time out, but she’ll need to seriously improve again herself next time out to have a chance in March.
Sticking with the Mares theme and Impervious became the second 2pt win bet at 6/1 to reclaim her Mares’ Chase crown for JP and Colm Murphy. With Dinoblue disappointing last time out, she shortened a point into joint favouritism on the back of connections’ comments suggesting she’s on the right path after her injury, and I’d imagine she’ll have a pipe opener in February before returning to Cheltenham.
Our final selection of 2024 was Koktail Divin for the Albert Bartlett. The 25/1 remains in most places, and it’s a simple case of Turners or Albert Bartlett. Kaid D’Authie is being touted as the Mullins underdog in the Supreme with Salvator Mundi yet to be seen which bodes well for the strength of our hope in Koktail Divin, and it was also pleasing to see Betfair’s, and former GG tipster, Daryl Carter, throw his hat into the ring with confidence behind Koktail Divin for the Albert Bartlett. Hopefully we’ll seen him at Leopardstown in February for the Nathaniel Lacey.
Ryanair Chase – Jungle Boogie 25/1 1pt Each Way
With that out of the way, I’ll crack on. The sportsbooks have started to unearth the handicaps, and the next few columns will likely focus on those. But I’d like to revisit the Ryanair with Bravemansgame now out as I think the market at this stage still represents some value, and I think we can eliminate plenty of those toward the top of the market.
Fact To File heads the market at 7/2, and while he edged out in the betting for the Gold Cup, I thought he ran an excellent race behind Galopin Des Champs last time out given how keen he was. His jumping wasn’t great either, but given GDC was almost foot perfect and Fact To File was only seven lengths behind him, I wouldn’t entirely rule him out of the Gold Cup picture.
Banbridge is entirely ground dependant so the 5/1 is essentially banking on some good weather. Gaelic Warrior would be of interest if turning up as would Spillane’s Tower, but the former is still in the Champion Chase picture and the latter is in the Gold Cup picture, though would have to jump better than what he did at Kempton in the King George. El Fabiolo is yet to be seen after picking up a small injury and he would have to overcome a dismal showing in the Champion Chase last season. Il Est Francais has been given all three entries, but I’m not sure Cheltenham, would suit him. Grey Dawning’s connections have the Gold Cup in their sights, Energumene will be going for the Champion Chase, I don’t think Cheltenham would bring out the best in Djelo, and then it’s 20/1 bar.
The one at a price, who was given an entry today, is JUNGLE BOOGIE at 25/1. The obvious caveat in here is that he’d have to be the first 11-year-old to win the contest, but with just seven runs behind him, he’s hardly your average eleven year old. With form figures of 111416, his only career defeats came firstly off a 708 day layoff when beaten fourteen lengths over two miles at Cork behind the reigning Champion Chaser at the time in El Fabiolo, and secondly in last season’s Gold Cup when posting a career best RPR (at the time) of 162. I was glued to the ride of Charlie Deutsch on L’Homme Presse at the time, but when watching it back I couldn’t believe how well Jungle Boogie was travelling, and there was some support for him.
He completed the course in his own time in rear under Darragh O’Keefe, running in the manner of one willing to pick up the pieces in third. What I couldn’t believe was how hard he pulled throughout the entire contest, and was still very much in contention despite putting down three out. He weakened out of things two out, but given how hard he pulled it was a testament to his ability that he was able to make it that far in relatively faultless fashion.
He returned this season with a career best RPR of 163 when winning the Howden Graduation Chase at Ascot, beating the 152r Fil Dor and 155r James Du Berlais by eight/eleven lengths. The race fell apart with Iroko falling at the first, but he comfortably dispatched two credible opponents despite jumping markedly left at every fence. Had he jumped straighter, the deficit could easily have been an extra ten lengths and he won going away in impressive style.
The return to the left handed Cheltenham over this shorter distance can only see him improve from that last effort, and given it was a career best performance, we can only presume that despite his advancing years he’s a progressive sort. I’d say he’s unlikely to be seen again until the festival, but he’s certainly no 25/1 chance particularly given you can rule out half the leading market contenders, and Henry De Bromhead has won the race twice in the last seven renewals.
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