The final day of the Cheltenham Festival may revolve around the Gold Cup, but seven races in all give punters one last chance to get one over the bookies. Here are Dave Young’s trends on each race to give you an edge on day four.
Triumph Hurdle
- ALL of the last 24 winners last ran 55 days ago or less
- ALL of the last 15 winners did NOT wear headgear
- 15 of the last 17 winners had 3 or fewer runs this season
- 18 of the last 21 winners had NOT run at Cheltenham (other 3 were all unbeaten here)
- 14 of the last 18 winners had an OR of 139 or higher (other 4 had no OR)
- 14 of the last 19 winners were 13/2 or shorter
- The last 5 winners were Irish trained
- 10 winners this century have come from the Spring Juvenile (only 3 of them had won it)
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Doesn’t wear headgear, priced 13/2 or shorter, has run inside the last 55 days and has an OR of 139 or higher or no OR yet.”
Trends Pick – EAST INDIA DOCK / LULAMBA
County Handicap Hurdle
- ALL of the last 18 winners were aged 5, 6 or 8-years-old
- 14 of the last 15 winners did NOT wear headgear
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from Dan Skelton or Willie Mullins
- 19 of the last 22 winners were in their first or second season hurdling
- 13 of the last 16 winners had an OR of 134 to 141
- 12 of the last 18 were Irish Trained
Cheat Sheet Quote – “No headgear, likely to be in their first or second season hurdling, look for Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins trained runners and with an OR of 134 to 141”
Trends Pick – VALGRAND
Mares’ Chase
- ALL of the 4 winners were aged either 7 or 8-years-old
- ALL of the 4 winners won last time out
- ALL of the 4 winners had 3 runs that season
- ALL of the 4 winners were Irish trained
- ALL of the 4 winners were priced 3/1 or shorter
- 3 of the 4 winners were second favourite
- 3 of the 4 winners had run at a previous festival
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Will be aged 7 or 8, will have won last time out, will have had 3 runs this season, will be Irish trained and priced 3/1 or shorter”
Trends Pick – DINOBLUE
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
- 19 of the 20 winners placed top 4 last time out
- 19 of the 20 winners were aged 7-years-old or younger
- 12 of the last 13 winners had run at and won at 23-25 furlongs
- 17 of the 20 winners ran in a Graded hurdle last time out
- 15 of the 20 winners had 4 or fewer runs over hurdles
- 9 winners had previously been to Cheltenham and 7 of those had won there
- The last 6 winners were Irish trained
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Placed in the top 4 and ran in a Graded Hurdle last time out, aged 7 or younger, has won at 23-25 furlongs and has 4 or fewer runs over hurdles”
Trends Pick – THE BIG WESTERNER
Gold Cup
- 23 of the last 24 winners were 7 to 9-years-old
- 23 of the last 24 winners did NOT wear headgear
- 21 of the last 24 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 20 of the last 24 had at least placed at The Festival before
- 20 of the last 24 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting
- No winner since 2000 had run in The Cotswold Chase
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Aged 7-9, not wearing headgear, placed 1st or 2nd last time out and has at least placed at the Festival before”
Trends Pick – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
Hunter Chase
- 14 of the last 15 winners had been beaten that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 10 or 11
- 15 of the last 17 winners placed at least 3rd last time out
- 13 of the last 15 winners last run in a hunter chase under rules
Cheat Sheet Quote – “NOT unbeaten this season, aged 10 or 11, finished in the top 3 last time out and probably ran under rules last time out”
Trends Pick – ANGELS BREATH
Martin Pipe
- 15 of the 16 winners were NOT the favourite (winning favourite in 2011)
- 14 of the 16 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 14 of the 16 winners last raced within 55 days
- 14 of the 16 winners had 8 or fewer runs over hurdles
- 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 13 of the 16 winners had an OR of 137 or higher
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Probably NOT the favourite, aged 5 or 6, has 8 or fewer runs over hurdles, last ran 55 days ago or less, finished top 3 last time out and ideally has an OR of 137 or higher”
Trends Pick – BUNTING
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