In two weeks’ time, the Cheltenham Festival will get underway for 2025. With that in mind, Dave Young has collated all of his trends research into one place, so you can find the best trends picks for each of the Cheltenham Tuesday races below.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
- The last 17 winners all had a season peak RPR of 142+
- 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 12 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
- 11 of the last 12 winners were single-figure priced
- 13 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
- 24 of the last 28 winners won last time out
- 22 of the last 30 winners ran in the last 45 days
- No winner in headgear for over 30 years
- Last 6 winners were Irish or Nicky Henderson trained and 11 of the last 12
- Will have finished Top 2 on seasonal debut or Fell
- Backing the 3rd favourite blind has been profitable this century and the last decade
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Won last time out, recorded an RPR of 142+ this season, won a Graded Novice Hurdle, single-figure priced and no headgear.”
Trends Pick – KOPEK DES BORDES
Arkle Novices’ Chase
- No winning second favourite since 2008
- 9 runners were priced 6/4 or shorter this century and they all won
- Only one runner in the last decade that was rated 161 or higher didn’t win, but was beaten by a higher rated runner
- 23 of the last 25 winners were single-figure priced
- 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite
- 15 of the last 20 winners had won or placed at Cheltenham previously
- Only 1 winner in headgear in this century (Western Warhorse)
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Won last time, respect favourites and more so if 6/4 or shorter, if rated 161+ and the highest rated runner should win and no headgear.”
Trends Pick – MAJBOROUGH
Ultima Handicap Chase
- 9 of last 10 winners sported Cheekpieces, Blinkers or a Tongue-Tie
- 20 of the last 24 winners were sent off at 11/1 or shorter
- 13 of the last 16 winners were in their first or second season chasing
- 13 of the last 16 winners had raced at a previous Festival
- 19 of the last 24 winners were rated 143 or less
- 16 of the last 24 winners were rated 140+
- Likely to be aged between 7 and 9 years old
- No more than 5 wins over fences but ideally between 1 and 3 chase wins
- Irish have only won twice since 1967 and are 0 from 45 since 2006
Cheat Sheet Quote – “British trained with an SP of 11/1 or shorter, first or second season chaser, has raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival, aged 7 to 9 and respect cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue-ties.“
Trends Pick – THE CHANGING MAN
Mares’ Hurdle
- 14 of the last 16 had won over at least 2m 4f
- 8 of the last 10 had 2 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated runner
- Will be aged 7 or younger (7-year-olds have been profitable to back blind)
- Ideally won last time out (Profitable to back blind)
- Last ran between 31 and 60 days ago
- Has won 50% or more of their hurdle races
- Has won a Grade 2 or better before now
- Previous Mares Novice Hurdle winners are yet to win this
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Has won over at least 2m 4f, has had two or more runs this season, aged 7 or younger, ideally won last time out and probably NOT the highest-rated runner.“
Trends Pick – TAKE NO CHANCES / JETARA
Champion Hurdle
- 19 of the last 21 winners were aged 6-8 years old
- 35 of the last 41 won last time out
- 11 of the last 14 were unbeaten that season
- Ireland and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 between them
- Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 16
- Avoid horses who failed to finish top 3 last time out
- Preferably has already won at Cheltenham
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Won last time out, trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson, unbeaten this season, has already won at Cheltenham.“
Trends Pick – CONSTITUTION HILL
Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
- The last 7 winners were Irish trained
- 9 of the last 10 winners didn’t wear headgear
- 9 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 to 11-9
- 15 of the 20 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
- Only 3 of the 20 winners were rated 135+ from 81 runners
- Only 2 of the winners wore a tongue-tie from 74 runners
- No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
- Last winning mare was Une Artist in 2012
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Irish trained, no headgear, no tongue-tie, ideally rated 134 or lower, probably no more than one win over hurdles, not raced at Cheltenham, carries 11-0 to 11-9.“
Trends Pick – PUTURHANDSTOGETHER/HOLY SEE
NH Chase
New race conditions mean there are no viable trends for this contest.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.