The third day of the Cheltenham Festival is often the most competitive of the week given the majority of handicap action. Using the stats to narrow down the field can be crucial, so Dave Young has analysed each race to come up with his trends and selections.
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
- All the 9 winners were aged either 5 or 6-years-old
- 8 of the 9 winners had 2-4 runs over hurdles this season
- 7 of the 9 winners had an OR of 135 or higher (1 had no OR the other was 124)
- 6 of the 9 winners were Irish Trained (NOT the last 3)
- 6 of the 9 winners had at least four runs over hurdles
- 5 of the 9 winners were unbeaten that season
- Last 6 winners were priced 9/2 or bigger
- Last 5 winners were 6-year-olds
- Last 5 winners last ran 28-39 days ago
- 7-year-olds or older are 0 from 19
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Will be aged 5 or 6, has 2-4 runs this season, rated 135 if has an OR, preferably last ran 28-39 days ago and look to those priced 9/2 or bigger.”
Trends Pick – KAROLINE BANBOU
Jack Richard Novices’ Handicap Chase
New race for 2025 so no trends viable for this as previous Novices’ Handicap had a rating ceiling
Pertemps Final
- ALL of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or younger
- 21 of the last 22 winners had no more than one win over 3 miles plus
- 10 of the last 13 winners ran in the last 39 days
- 16 of the last 21 winners were sent off a double-figure price
- 11 of the last 14 winners were rated between 138-146
- Just 1 of the last 7 winners had won that season
- Just 2 of the last 16 won their qualifier (none in last 9)
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Aged 8 or younger, ran in the last 40 days, rated 138-146, look for double-figure prices, has just 1 win over 3 miles or further and probably hasn’t won this season.”
Trends Pick – BUGISE SEAGULL
Ryanair Chase
- ALL the last 13 winners were aged 7-9
- ALL the last 13 winners had a season peak RPR of 165+
- 16 of the last 17 winners were rated over 160
- 16 of the last 17 were single-figure prices
- 14 of the last 17 winners had at least placed at The Festival before
- 13 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Aged 7-9, rated over 160 with a season peak RPR of 165+, has at least placed at The Festival before, has won a Grade 1 Chase and single-figure priced.”
Trends Pick – FACT TO FILE
Stayers’ Hurdle
- 20 of the last 21 winners had an OR of 152 or higher
- 16 of the 17 winners aged 7 or older had already won a Grade 1
- 22 of the last 24 had at least placed in a Grade 1 3m hurdle
- 20 of the last 24 winners were aged 6-8
- 19 of the last 24 winners were in the top 4 of the market
- Since 1992 only 1 winner with headgear SIRE DU BERLAIS in 2023
- Since 2004 just 2 winners have won after being beaten in the race (the last 2 winners)
- The 7 winners aged 6-years-old this century all had an OR of 157 or higher
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Aged 6-8, has at least placed in a 3m Grade 1 hurdle, look to the top 4 in the market and must have an OR of 152 or higher.”
Trends Pick – TEAHUPOO
Plate Handicap Chase
- ALL the last 11 winners held an OR of 140-149
- ALL the last 10 winners had won that season
- ALL the last 6 winners had won at Cheltenham
- 5 of the last 6 winners won last time out
- 18 of the last 21 winners had 1-3 wins over fences in their career
- Only 1 winner since 2003 to wear headgear
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Has an OR of 140-149, has won this season, preferably has already won at Cheltenham, has 1-3 career chase wins, no headgear and a bonus if won last time out.”
Trends Pick – GINNY’S DESTINY
Kim Muir
- 17 of the last 18 winners had 2 or fewer wins over fences
- 20 of the last 22 winners did NOT win last time out
- 14 of the last 16 winners carried at least 11 stone 4
- 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 7-9
- 16 of the last 20 winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs
- 12 of the last 16 winners had run in February
Cheat Sheet Quote – “No more than 2 wins over fences, did NOT win last time out, aged 7-9, carrying 11-4, ridden by a non-claiming amateur and bonus if they ran in February.”
Trends Pick – JOHNNYWHO/HERAKLES WESTWOOD
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