Plenty of hot favourites are likely to be sent out to battle on day two of the Cheltenham Festival. Dave Young has analysed every Wednesday race by the trends to see if those market leaders are the likely winners based on recent history.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
- The last 11 winners had no more than 3 runs over hurdles
- The last 8 winners last ran 66 days ago or less
- 14 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper
- 18 of the last 20 winners came from the first 4 in the market
- 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-years-old
- 20 of the last 24 winners were single-figure prices
- 20 of the last 24 winners won last time out
- 13 of the last 16 were first or second highest rated
- 13 of the last 16 had won a Graded Hurdle
- Just 3 winners older than 6 since the race formed in 1971 (curiously, each 24 years apart; 1974, 1998, 2022)
- Respect favourites priced 6/4 or shorter (50% ROI from the last 7 renewals)
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Last ran 66 days ago or less, has won a bumper, in the first 4 in the market, won last time out, has won a Graded Hurdle, aged 6, no more than 3 runs over hurdles and is the 1st or 2nd highest-rated runner.“
Trends Pick – FINAL DEMAND
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
- 17 of the last 18 placed 1st or 2nd in a G2 or better over fences
- 22 of the last 24 winners finished first or second last time out
- 18 of the last 20 winners had already run at Cheltenham
- 26 of the last 30 winners had no more than one season over hurdles
- 15 of the last 18 winners were 7yo’s
- 20 of the last 24 winners had not finished outside the Top 3 over fences
- 22 of the last 27 winners had run and won over 23-25 furlongs
- Only 4 winners from the last 25 were unbeaten that season
- Only 3 winners from the last 25 had less than 3 chase runs
- No winning second favourite since 2012 and 2000 before that
Cheat Sheet Quote – “7yo, has finished 1st or 2nd in a Grade 2 or better over fences, 1st or 2nd last time out, has already run at Cheltenham, 3 or more chase runs, unlikely to be unbeaten this season and preferably to have won at 23-25 furlongs.”
Trends Pick – BETTER DAYS AHEAD
Coral Cup
- 19 of the last 20 winners had 2-4 wins over hurdles
- 14 of the last 15 winners had no more than one win that season
- 13 of the last 14 winners had run at 19-21 furlongs
- 17 of the last 20 winners had their last run more than 31 days ago
- 12 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham
- 18 of the last 24 winners had run less than 10 times over hurdles
- 11 of the last 15 winners didn’t win last time out
- One winning favourite in the last 21 years
- 4 of the last 6 winners wore headgear (not the last two – both Langer Dan)
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Last ran more than 31 days ago, has run at Cheltenham, no more than one win this season, probably didn’t win last time out, has 2-4 wins over hurdles and not the favourite.”
Trends Pick – COMFORT ZONE
Cross Country
- Runners priced 4/1 and shorter have been profitable to back blind
- The only 3 winners to have carried 11 stone or more carried the Top Weight
- There have been 4 Top Weights sent off 4/1 or shorter and 3 won (Only the fav lost)
- 9 of the 11 winners had fallen in their career (One other had unseated)
- 9 of the 11 winners held an Official Rating of 143 or lower
- 8 of the 11 winners came from the Top 3 in the market
- 8 of the 11 winners were aged 8 to 10-years-old
- 7 of the 11 winners last run at Cheltenham or Punchestown
- There have been only 6 runners rated 154+ and 3 runners rated 157+ and none won
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Probably has fallen or unseated in their career, holds an OR of 143 or lower or the Top Weight, from the Top 3 in the market, look to horses who last ran at Cheltenham or Punchestown and aged 8-10.”
Trends Pick – STUMPTOWN
Champion Chase
- The last 5 winners were all beaten last time out
- 15 of the last 16 winners had previously run at Cheltenham
- 12 of the last 13 winners came from the Top 3 in the market
- 21 of the last 23 winners had already won a Grade 1 Chase
- 18 of the last 20 winners ran 2-3 times that season
- 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 9-years-old or younger
- 19 of the last 22 winners ran this calendar year
- 9 of the last 12 odds-on favourites have been beaten
- No winner in headgear for over 30 years
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Has run at Cheltenham, has won a Grade 1 Chase, ran 2 or 3 times this season, Top 3 in the market and no headgear.”
Trends Pick – JONBON
Grand Annual
- 22 of the last 23 winners had no more than one win that season
- 11 of the last 12 winners last ran 38 days or more ago
- 19 of last 21 winners did NOT win last time out
- 18 of the last 20 winners hadn’t wont a Handicap Chase that season
- 21 of the last 25 carried less than 11 stone 5 pounds
- 11 of the last 15 winners were not in the top 5 in the market
- Respect runners who have been beaten in the race before (8 winners from last 19)
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Last ran 38 days or more ago, didn’t win last time out, hasn’t won a Handicap Chase this season, carries less than 11-5 and no more than one win this season.”
Trends Pick – JAZZY MATTY
Champion Bumper
- The last 21 winners had won last time out
- The last 10 winners had won in double-figure sized bumper fields
- The last 10 winners had a best RPR of 126 or higher
- 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 7 of the last 9 winners ran in February
- 25 of the last 32 winners were Irish Trained
Cheat Sheet Quote – “Won last time out, has won in a double-figure sized field, has an RPR of 126 or higher and is aged 5 or 6.”
Trends Pick – GAMEOFINCHES
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