The Cheltenham Gold Cup remains the pinnacle of National Hunt racing. Dave Young has taken to the trends to see if punters can gain a head start on the 2025 renewal.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be a 9-year-old or younger
- Respect favourites; they’re profitable this century and the last decade to back blind
- Most likely to be a single-figure priced winner
- Has an Official Rating of 166 or higher
- Ideally has 2 or more wins at 3-miles plus and a 40% or higher chase strike rate
- MUST have previously run at Cheltenham, preferably more than once
- MUST be a Grade 1 winner and preferably a multiple Grade 1 winner
- Will have at least placed at a previous Festival
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 9yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
With 4 multiple Gold Cup winners this century the age figures will move a little in line with that, but it’s worth mentioning that most winners this century and all winners in the last decade were aged 7-9 and that accounts for 80% of runners in the last decade and 73% this century. While it’s a loss maker to back all these blind and you’d lose more doing this than backing horses outside of the 7-9 bracket, you wouldn’t be finding the winner so this must be taken into account and as one box that must be ticked.
7-year-olds alone this decade would have shown a £4.38 profit if backing blind, and less than a £1 loss. However, this year it’s only Il Est Francais who could line up, but he’s unlikely to do so.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Single-figure priced – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
While the favourite holds that title for a reason, it’s not always a case that following them blind is profitable. However, 50% of the winners of this race were sent off as favourite and it produced a ROI of around 60% both this century and in the last decade. Additionally, when we combine favourites who are priced 9/4 or shorter, we can increase the ROI in the last decade to near 90% but it does bring this century’s ROI down to 44%.
Most Gold Cup winners are sent of single-figure prices and all bar one winner this century has been priced 12/1 or shorter. Backing all runners with that price or below would have made a profit of £6.87 this last decade and just a 27p loss this century. Essentially, don’t try and find a winner at a wild.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 166 or more – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 15/20 (63%) & 5/10 (50%)
Being the Blue-Ribbon event of jumps racing, it’s not surprising to see that the vast majority of winners hold a very high OR and half or more have been rated 170 plus. Still, it does serve as a reminder that you won’t win this with a horse who doesn’t have the ability, so when looking at potential candidates, they really should hold and OR of 166 or higher.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Last ran 31-90 days ago – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out winners are a loss maker just backing blind, and that’s because in the last decade alone, 46% of the runners won last time out, and of course, only 10 of those could potentially win. It’s clearly desirable though, given they account for around 80% of the winners, from less than half of the runners.
Days since last run is typically inside a window of 31-90 days being fine. Those who ran from a layoff greater than 120 days are 0 from 7, but not one of those was sent off shorter than 16/1 and 4 of them were sent of 150/1 or bigger (3 were 1000 on the exchange). There have been 69 horses running in the Gold Cup from 30 days or fewer since their last run and none have won. Both Kauto Star and Long Run were beaten favourites in this list and there have been many single-figure priced runners who have tried too. Gordon if you’re reading this, don’t give him a prep run!
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had RUN more than ONCE at Cheltenham – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at The Festival before – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winner who had PLACED at The Festival before – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
All winners of this race had already run at Cheltenham and all but one winner had run here 2 or more times. Most had a previous win here and 13 of those winners having won at a previous Festival too. 80% of winners had at least placed at a Festival before, with only Coneygree not having raced at a previous festival, and the other three all fell.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 2 or more WINS at 24+ furlongs – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 9 or fewer RUNS over fences – 14/24 (58%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had 4 or more WINS over fences – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
It’s worth noting that most winners of a Gold Cup have a 40% or higher strike rate over fences. It’s typical of a winner to have winner to have won at least three times before now but most have at least 4 chase wins to their name. With that strike rate in mind, it’s been a race where horses with single-figure chase runs have won more than half this century and two thirds of winners had at least 2 wins over 3 miles and further.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
All winners of the Gold Cup had a previous Grade 1 to their name and two-thirds had more than one.
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