Top tipster Andrew Mount, whose Cheltenham nap last year was placed at 80-1, gives his best bet for the 2020 festival and discusses other punting tactics
If you told me six months ago that my 2020 Cheltenham festival nap would be running in the JCB Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham, 1.30 Friday) I’d have laughed at you, but I’m nominating ALLMANKIND as my best bet of the week.
I’ve had an interesting and costly relationship with Dan Skelton’s son of Sea The Moon in his short national hunt career, backing him pre-race ahead of his debut at Warwick in November but bailing out at a bigger price in-running after he pulled like a train in the early stages.
He won’t last home after doing that, I thought. He did, to score by 37 lengths. Eight days later he rocked up at Cheltenham in Grade 2 company and I opposed him again, thinking that his hard-pulling tendency would see him fade up the hill. It didn’t. He won by a very easy two and a half lengths and the form was franked by subsequent wins for the runner-up (Botox Has), third (Repetitio), fourth (Nordano) and sixth (Mick Pastor).
By the time he ran in the Grade 1 Finale hurdle at Chepstow in December I was a fully paid-up member of the Allmankind fan club and backed him at 5-4, only to see him touch 2-1 before the race. I needn’t have worried as he bolted up from Cerberus, toying with him in the straight to score by nine lengths.
I was on a preview panel with Tom Messenger last week (Dan Skelton’s assistant trainer) and he said that Allmankind looks like he’s running choke-out for the whole race but he isn’t – he does so in the first half mile and then, for a mile, Harry Skelton is filling his lungs before pressing the button again in the final stages.
When it was put to him that he might get taken on for the lead by the likes of Goshen and Aspire Tower he just laughed and said “they can try but it’ll break them”. Just for information, Tom was keen on three others from the yard and has done them in a Lucky 15 – Protektorat in the Coral Cup, Oldgrangewood in the Stable Plate and Mohaayed in the County Hurdle.
I’ve got a couple of general punting angles for Cheltenham
1) multiple bets involving the same form lines and,
2) forecasts.
It’s widely agreed that last year’s Champion Bumper was a particularly strong renewal and we’ll see five of the first six home in action this week.
1st – Envoi Allen (Ballymore)
3rd – Thyme Hill (Albert Bartlett)
4th – Abacadabras (Supreme)
5th – The Glancing Queen (Bumper, again)
6th – Sempo (Coral Cup)
It’s possible that more than one of the above will win and, if Abacadabras and Envoi Allen win their respective races, the others are bound to shorten.
Another form line that I’m interested in supporting is the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day…
1st – Simply The Betts (Stable Plate)
2nd – Imperial Aura (Northern Trust)
3rd – On The Slopes (Grand Annual)
…these are priced at around 6-1, 11-2 and 12-1 respectively and a £1 e/w treble gives you a better chance of winning a few quid than a £2 Lucky Dip on this week’s Lotto.
With individual fancies, I’m quite keen on taking a percentage of my win stake (say 20% or 10%) and using it to play the selection in straight forecasts to beat one or more rivals into second place.
Itchy Feet is a popular selection in the Marsh Chase (I had him top of my shortlist when I previewed the race for GG last month) and he’s now a best-priced 4-1.
He beat Midnight Shadow into second place in Grade 1 company at Sandown last time and whose to say that rival won’t be second again? He’s 25-1 and we could get close to 100-1 for the forecast.
Epatante and Silver Streak ran one-two in a Grade 1 last time out and do battle again in the Champion Hurdle. All we are saying is that two Grade 1 horses, having already finished first and second in a Grade 1 contest, can do so again.
That pair are 7-2 and 25-1 and could reward us with a forecast of around 80-1 or 90-1. There are numerous other examples and it’s a good way to give yourself the chance of a big return for small stakes.
Best of luck this week.