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Chester Cup Trends – Key Findings and Two Tips for Chester Meeting Highlight

Fresh off the back of an incredibly close trends tip second in the 1,000 Guineas and a winner of the Bet365 Gold Cup before that, Dave Young has taken a look at the key stats for finding the winner of the Chester Cup.

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200 years on from its first running in 1824, the Chester Cup is still a highly anticipated and brilliant staying flat handicap over 2m 2 ½f during Chesters May Meeting. I’ve not gone back through the entire 200 year history to look for trends, however I have covered the last 10 renewals to see where history suggests this years winner might come from.

10-year trends

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT run at Chester before
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had at least 13 runs under rules
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had three or more career wins
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had not run under NH rules
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 95 and 101
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had won at 2m+
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had raced that season

Shortlist

Using the top 5 trends from above, CITIZEN GENERAL is a perfect scorer ticking all 5 boxes however, a small concern is that this 5yo has had 22 careers runs and all of the last 10 had fewer than that, but two had 21 and 22 runs so it’s not a complete deal-breaker.

Ed Dunlop’s charge would probably prefer the ground to be on the quick side and looking at the weather he should be fine, but this would be demanding a career best effort. I feel at a top price of 33/1 that is considered, but another small concern would be all of the last 10 winners were priced 16/1 or shorter so I think it’s worth talking about another option.

MAGELLAN STRAIT for Joseph O’Brien will be looking to regain the title for Ireland and follow in his father’s footsteps. He has just 11 runs under rules but for all that 8 of the last 10 winners had 13+ runs, the two Irish winners from 2021 and 2022 both did not, so we can forgive him that. He’s also booked William Buick to ride which screams confidence so at a top price of 16/1, you’d imagine he’ll shorten by stalls opening and the time to back him would be sooner rather than later.

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