A long-distance handicap on the flat can attract some dual-purpose types but is that a positive or a negative?
I’ve looked at all running’s this century and from the last decade to see if we can figure out what are the pros and cons when trying to find the Chester Cup winner
KEY TRENDS
- No real age bias just no older than 8
- Be wary of favourites and the winner will likely hold an SP of 13/2 to 12/1
- Preference for a lower drawn horse, ideally in the lowest 4 stalls
- Look to horses rated 93-104 and carrying 8-13 to 9-6
- Probably hasn’t run at Chester before or only once
- Likely to have run over 2m2f or further but doesn’t need to have won
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 3/24 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 2/24 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
Both 8-year-old winners came inside the last decade and are profitable to back blind during that period but not this century. Most winners do tend to be aged between 4 and 6 but it’s not a money maker.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/24 (20%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 13/2 to 12/1 – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
No winning favourite since 2010 and they’re loss makers to back blind across both periods.
Backing all runners priced between 13/2 to 12/1 at SP has shown a small profit this century and a that’s thanks in part to the last decade which shows a 20% ROI.
DRAW
- Drawn in the LOWEST 4 stalls – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the HIGHEST 4 stalls – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
No winner from stall 3 this century, however factoring non-runners to look at the lowest 4 stalls you’d find plenty of winners and plenty of placed horses too. This century, backing the lowest 4 stalls shows a £46 profit from 96 qualifiers and shows a £10 profit from the 40 qualifiers in the last decade.
WEIGHT AND RATING
- Carrying 8-13 to 9-6 – 13/24 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Rated 93 to 104 – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners are carrying 8-13 to 9-6 which is profitable to follow blind this century for £25.50 profit to SP but is losing £9 in the last decade.
Most winners hold a rating of 93 to 104 which again is profitable this century but a loss maker this last decade.
If you combine the two measures you increase the profit this century to £44.5 for around a 35% ROI to SP and turn the last decade into profit too at 5% ROI to SP but 36% using Betfair SP.
NATIONAL HUNT FORM
- Had won a National Hunt Race – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
With Harry Fry and Nicky Henderson among the recent winning trainers I though it was worth looking at how many winners of the Chester Cup had previously won a National Hunt race. It’s a big loss maker at -25% ROI to SP this century and that increases to -60% ROI in the last decade.
Might be more of a turning trend based on those figures but the more positive readers may think we’re due one.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Chester – 12/24 (50%) & 2/10 (20%)
Most recent winners had NOT run at Chester before now although it’s a 50/50 split this century. Only 4 winners this century had run here 2 or more times and all of those had just the 2 runs here.
Backing runners with just 1 run here has been profitable this century but backing runners with 0 runs here has been profitable in the last decade.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 2m2f or further – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at 2m2f or further – 7/17 (41%) & 1/6 (17%)
Most winners of this race had run over 2m2f or further before but while winning over that trip or further would have been a positive earlier this century, only 1 winner in the last decade had won at 2m2f before landing this.
HEADGEAR
- Did NOT wear Headgear – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners do not wear any kind of headgear but it’s not a money-maker. Those winners in headgear were sporting varied equipment.
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