22 fences are jumped in this 3m 5 ½f staying handicap and back in 2017 we saw One For Arthur landing this before the Grand National proper in April.
There have been 22 renewals, after abandonments, this century and I’ve looked at all those runnings to see if we can decipher what trends are relevant in landing this pot.
KEY TRENDS
- Most winners are 4th or higher in the betting
- Typically rated between 133 and 140
- Likely has 1-3 wins over fences
- Likely to have failed to complete in a race under rules (PU, F, UR etc)
- Preference to those who last ran between 31 and 60 days ago
- Backing all runners priced 17/2 to 20/1 blind has an ROI of 40% this century and 28.5% in the last decade
- Emma Lavelle, Paul Nicholls and Alan King all have 3 wins this century
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 3/22 (14%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 7/22 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 5/22 (23%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 4/22 (18%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 2/22 (9%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 12yo – 1/22 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
7-year-olds and 8-year-olds have the best strike rate at near 10% each but only 8-year-olds have been profitable to back blind over the last 10 runnings and this century
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/22 (9%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 4th or bigger in the market – 17/22 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Priced 17/2 to 20/1 – 13/22 (59%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites are loss makers in both this century and the last 10 with second favourites having more wins but still losing money. Most winners come from the 4th in the betting or higher and it’s been profitable just backing all runners priced 17/2 to 20/1 blind with an £18.50 profit to a £1 level stake in the last 10 and a £53.50 profit to a £1 stake this century. The respective ROIs are 28.5% and 40%.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winner has an OR between 133 and 140 – 12/22 (55%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners fall into the bracket of 120’s to 140’s rated horses but it has been profitable to follow all runners blind with an OR of 133-140. There have been more winners in that band in the last 10 years too but interestingly 68% of placed runners fall into that bracket in the last decade and near 50% this century. So that might comfort EW players for horses who meet these criteria.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran in the last 10 weeks – 20/22 (91%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Top 3 last time out – 14/22 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Failed to complete last time out – 5/22 (23%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran at Cheltenham, Chepstow or Newbury – 11/22 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
Last time out number of days since run is interesting here with a profit to be made backing all qualifiers between 31-60 days blind, both this century and the last 10. There has been one winner who raced in the last 7 days from 8 who have tried this century, which is also profitable to back blind, but a much smaller sample. The opposite end of the spectrum is also true for horses who last ran over 365 days ago with 1 winner from 6 who have tried this century. Most horses fall into the bucket of running in the last 10 weeks, but you’d be losing money if you followed horses who last ran inside 30 days blind. It certainly wouldn’t be a deal breaker but might help whittling down between a few if you showed preference to the last run coming 31-60 days ago.
The last ran at Cheltenham, Chepstow or Newbury accounts for half the winners this century but the last decade has only been Chepstow runs so that may be preferable. The 4 winners who came from The Welsh National had failed to finish that race in 3 instances and the other won the race, so make of that what you will.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Warwick – 8/22 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at Warwick – 4/8 (50%) & 1/3 (33%)
Most winners have not seen Warwick racecourse before but half of those who had raced here this century had won here too. We’re not going to knock any horse who hasn’t run here and it might even be harsh to look down upon those who hadn’t won here as they all only had one look prior. That said, I would deem it a negative if a horse has multiple runs at the track and still hasn’t won yet. Winning course form is certainly a positive though but that’s stating the obvious.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at 3 miles or further – 19/22 (86%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at 3 miles or further – 15/22 (68%) & 9/10 (90%)
Two of the three winners who hadn’t already won over 3m+ had just 1 and 3 tries at the trip prior. The other was Ladalko who had 7 tries prior.
CAREER FORM
- Had 10 or MORE runs over fences – 13/22 (59%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 1-3 WINS over fences – 17/22 (77%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had NOT completed a race in their career – 19/22 (86%) & 8/10 (80%)
In the more recent renewals, the winner has NOT had more than 7 runs over fences and that is true for 4 of the last 6 winners. Most winners of this race have 1-3 career chase wins with just 1 horse having more than 5. This falls a little in line with the number of runs, but it is consistent across longer than just the last decade, so I think it’s worth noting. Most winners of this race had failed to complete under rules before now too, so that’s pulling up, falling, unseating etc but there have also been 10 horses this century who had fallen in a race prior to winning this, so don’t simply look for perfection.
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