There are 10 hurdles to be jumped in this Premier Handicap and without Langer Dan in the field we may need to look at some trends to help find the winner.
Doesn’t typically have the same feel of a plotty handicap (Langer Dan aside), but I’ve looked at all running’s this century and compared with the last decade to see if anything sticks out.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 7 or 8-years-old
- Ideally rated between 137 and 144 and carrying 11-2 or more
- Give credit to runners who last ran 59-90 days ago
- Has no more than one win this season
- Preferably has 2-4 wins over hurdles but not more than 5
- Has 9 or fewer runs over hurdles (Not the last three winners)
- Does not wear headgear unless it’s the first time
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 6/24 (25%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
This century, all winners have been aged between 5 and 9-years-old and they all sit at a 4% strike rate apart from 7-year-olds who operate at a 5% strike rate. No age is profitable, but 6 and 8-year-olds have the lowest negative ROI.
In the last decade, both 7 and 8-year-olds operate at a 7% strike rate and they’ve both been profitable to back blind thanks to some generous priced winners. Those ages do now appear to be the recent sweet spot and worth keeping in mind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Top 7 in the betting – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
With recent 33/1 and 50/1 winners of this race you can understand that price doesn’t imply chance in this race. Across all price bands, there’s a relatively close strike rate so looking at market rank I thought might help whittle down where you want to be. Backing the 5th and 6th in the market would make money in the last decade but for this century you’d have had to back the 4th, 6th and 7th in to be profitable. Top three in the betting have been losers across both periods so while I wouldn’t want price or market position to carry too much weight in my consideration, you might want to look away from the first few in the market for a long-term strategy but probably no further than the 7th in.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 137 and 144 – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners carrying 11-2 or more – 11/24 (46%) & 7/10 (70%)
The ratings do span from 128 up to 153 in this race but the middle window seems to sit around 137-144 although 148-153 also produce multiple winners. It’s profitable to back the higher band blind but we’ve had some big-priced winner which skew those figures somewhat.
Weight carried is profitable to back blind for 11-2 or higher and even with the big-priced winners, this seems to be a sensible range to look at. There have been 7 winners at 25/1 or bigger this century, and 4 of those were below this number, so I don’t think they’re skewing the data quite so much.
In combining both measure of an OR of 137-144 and carrying 11-2; it’s produced 5 winners this century for a 9% ROI and 3 of those winners came in the last decade which shows an 83% ROI. I think it’s worth noting these bands for all that they won’t give you the winner every year, they just might in any year.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Finished Top 4 time out – 15/24 (63%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran 31-90 days ago – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners and horses who placed 3rd are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade but it’s one winner that makes that true for 3rd favourites. Like many of the categories, there is a variety for previous winners so it’s hard to suggest a notable trends from their last time out position.
Most winners last ran between 31 and 90 days ago and it is runners with a break of 61-90 days that show a profit blind both this century and in the last decade. They also both hold the highest strike rate in their respective time frames and there are two more winners who last ran exactly 60 days ago, and one more who ran 59 days ago.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- No more than ONE win this season – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 2-4 WINS over hurdles – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 9 or fewer RUNS over hurdles – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had won at 19-21 furlongs – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
ALL winners this century had between 2 and 5 wins over hurdles, but most had between 2 and 4. Most winners had no more than 1 win this season and around three-quarters of winners had 9 or fewer runs over hurdles. Just over two-thirds of winners had already won at between 19 and 21 furlongs and most winners had already run at Cheltenham.
HEADGEAR
Looking at this century there have been 19 winners who did NOT wear headgear but it’s not profitable to back blind, nor are headgear wearing runners. There have only been two runners this century in first time headgear with one of those winning. Most winners do NOT wear a tongue-tie but again, it’s not profitable to back blind.
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