The Coral Gold Cup is the feature jumps handicap this side of Christmas. With a deep field guaranteed, Dave Young has gone through the trends to help solve this inevitably difficult puzzle.
Since 1957 there have been just 3 repeat winners of this race, Mandarin, Arkle and Denman, so that list shows you the calibre of horse it would take to repeat that feat.
We’ve had 9 Cheltenham Gold Cup winners who have landed this race in their career too, though just Many Clouds has won both this race and The Grand National.
It’s a competitive handicap and while it’s been established for many years the trends and paths taken into the race do seem to be changing.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared the last decade of winners to see if we can work out what it now takes to find the winner of this early season feature race.
KEY TRENDS
- 2nd or 3rd Season Chaser, aged 6, 7 or 8 with two or three wins over fences
- Has at least one Handicap Chase win and preferably ran in a Handicap last time out
- Should have run at about 3 miles or further and should have won too
- Not essential to have run at Newbury, but should really have won if they’ve already raced here
- Likely to have run in the last 60 days and was sent off a single figure price last time
- Probably carrying 11 stone 6 lbs or less and rated between 145 and 155
- Favourites have been profitable to back blind both this century and the last decade
FOCUSED TRENDS
SEASONS OVER FENCES
- 1st Season – 1/24 & 0/10
- 2nd Season – 14/24 & 6/10
- 3rd Season – 8/24 & 4/10
- 4th Season – 1/24 & 0/10
2nd season chasers had been the go-to candidates for this race and at around a 60% figure for both this century and the last decade it still rings true. 3rd season chasers are now at 40% of recent winners so that confirms that while you do need experience, you do need to be a little unexposed too.
CHASE FORM
- 2 or fewer Handicap Chase RUNS – 13/24 & 3/10 (none of the last 7)
- 1 or more Handicap Chase WINS – 14/24 & 7/10 (all of the last 7)
- 7 of more RUNS over fences – 14/24 & 9/10
- 2 or 3 WINS over fences – 18/24 & 9/10 (No winner this century less than 2 wins over fences)
There’s been a noticeable change from the first dozen and last dozen renewals this century. In the first half, 8 of 12 winners had no more than 6 runs over fences and 5 had 4 or less. In the second half, just 1 winner had only 6 runs over fences but 8 did have 9 or fewer runs. The key trend here can sit in a parter I think, Most winners have less than 10 runs over fences, but most runners do too, and recently most winners have more than 7 runs over fences. It’s not quite the window of 7-10 finds you most winners, but recently it might have so be cautious in using the chase form trends, but your armed with the information now anyway.
DISTANCE FORM
- Has RUN at about 3m or further – 23/24 & 9/10 (all bar the last winner)
- Had WON at about 3m or further – 20/23 & 8/9
Last year’s winner bucked this trend but it has been a strong factor in previous renewals that a horse has at least run over about 3 miles but really should have won
COURSE FORM
- Has RUN at Newbury – 15/24 & 4/10
- Has WON at Newbury – 12/15 & 4/4
It’s no essential to have run at Newbury and it’s dropped in prevalence more recently, however if you have run here you ideally should have won, or at least run very well. So the ones you would mark down from this category would be previous course runners who had bombed out here.
LAST TIME OUT
- Finished 1st – 11/24 & 5/10
- Finished Top 3 – 18/24 & 7/10
- Failed to complete – 3/24 & 1/10
- Ran over fences – 22/24 & 8/10
- Ran in a Handicap – 13/24 & 7/10 (all of the last 7)
- Ran at about 3m or further – 18/24 & 6/10
- Ran inside 60 days – 16/24 & 9/10
- Sent off single-figure price – 17/24 & 9/10
A whole host of potential pointers here but the biggest factors seem to be running inside 60 days which is 10 of the last 11 winners whereas the previous 13 were won 7 times by horses coming in fresh. Being sent off single figures last time out seems important as does running in a Handicap last time out, whether that’s over hurdles or fences.
OFFICAL RATING
- Between 145 and 155 – 16/24 & 10/10 (not profitable to back blind)
Doesn’t help in isolation but this paired with other trends will help you whittle down the field.
WEIGHT CARRIED
- Highest weight – 11-12 3/24 & 11-6 1/10
- Lowest weight – 10-0 2/24 & 10-0 1/10
- 11 stone 6lbs or LESS – 21/24 & 10/10
Similar to OR, this won’t help on it’s own, but you do want to favour horses carrying no more than 11 stone 6 lbs.
AGE
- 6YO – 5/24 & 1/10
- 7YO – 11/24 & 4/10
- 8YO – 6/24 & 4/10
- 9YO – 1/24 & 0/10
- 10YO – 1/24 & 1/10
Age sometimes falls in line with earlier metrics, such as 2nd and 3rd season chasers, but with that said, you do want to favour horses aged 8 or younger, and of course that will encompass lots of runners with horses aged on the 1st of January.
POSITION IN THE MARKET
- TOP 7 – 19/24 & 8/10
- TOP 3 – 12/24 & 4/10
- FAVOURITE – 7/24 & 3/10 (Profitable to back the favourite blind in both sets)
Favourites have been profitable to back blind, so while I’ve left this for last, you could just back the jolly each year and you’d have made money over this century and the last decade. While the field size is on average 18, most winners will come from the first 7 in the market so this can quickly wipe out the majority of the field.
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