Seen as a Gold Cup Trial, this Grade 2 around Prestbury Park is run over 3m1½f but the last Cheltenham Festival winner the same season was Frodon, who dropped back to land the Ryanair in March. Santini has gone the closest in recent years for the big one, when coming second in the Gold Cup in 2020, but this is a race more than just a springboard for The Festival and it’s well worth targeting in its own right.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century with a comparison against the last 10 running’s to see what it takes to land this.
KEY TRENDS
- Respect the second and third in the betting but be cautious of favourites
- Should have an OR of between 159-169
- Preferably ran in the last 31-60 days
- Should have won at least a Grade 2 and the last 5 winners had won a Grade 1
- Has won at least 33% of their races over 3 miles and further
- Likely has failed to complete in their career and probably more than once
- Bonus point for NOT finishing second last time out
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 9yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
8-year-olds are operating at a 22% strike rate in the last decade, but they make a small loss if backing blind despite having half of the winners. All ages bar 9-year-olds (who breakeven) make a small loss backing blind.
7-year-olds consistently have the highest % place rate with near 50% this century and in the last decade. If your runner is aged between 7-11 then you have a chance, so I don’t believe this measure will help in whittling down the field
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2nd or 3rd in the betting – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Just two winning favourites this century, both of which came in the last decade, and both were trained by Nicky Henderson. They were Chantry House and Santini, who were 8-year-olds and both were 13/8 or shorter.
The 2nd and 3rd in the betting have shared the spoils this century and the last decade with 7 and 3 wins each respectively. You’d have made a profit betting these blind too; £4.91 & £1.25 for 2nd favourites this century and the last decade and £20.50 & £12.50 for 3rd favourites this century and the last decade.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winner has an OR between 159 and 169 – 15/25 (60%) & 10/10 (100%)
All of the last 10 winners held an OR of 159-169 and it’s been profitable to just back all of those blind with a £20.71 profit to £1 stakes. 34 runners have fallen into this band whereas 30 were outside of it, so it does look to be a significant marker.
This century backing the same band would have shown a £20.37 profit to £1 stakes which is very consistent, this time though it housed 62 of the runners whereas 105 fell outside the band. The range certainly appears to be where you want to be.
LAST TIME OUT
- Finished 1st last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran between 31-60 days – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most runners fall into the bracket of last running between 31-60 days but it still profitable to back that metric blind.
Last time out winners were profitable to back blind in the last decade but show a small loss this century. Interestingly, horses who finished second last time out are winless since 2007 and are the biggest loss maker this century with -£16.50 and this decade with -£8. Curiously, the horses who finished third last time out make a small profit in both timeframes looked at, as does horses who finished 5th last time out.
COURSE FORM – (2021 and 2006 were run elsewhere)
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 23/23 (100%) & 9/9 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 15/23 (65%) & 4/9 (44%)
More winners than not had already raced at Cheltenham, so that is essential. The last two winners had just one spin at the track and the same was true for the 2000 and 2002 winners, but all other running’s at this track, the winner had 2 or more starts around here before.
Winning form isn’t essential but would be preferable for horses who have been here at least 3 times before.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 3-miles or further – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 3-miles or further – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at 3-miles or further – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winner who had WON 33% or more of their runs at 3-miles or further – 15/25 (60%) & 7/20 (70%)
ALL winners had run at 3 miles or further before now and most of those had won. Around half of the winners had one more than once at 3-miles+ but more noteworthy is that around two-thirds of the winners had won 33% or more of their 3-miles+ races.
CAREER FORM
- Had MORE than 10 runs over fences – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 3 or more WINS over fences – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had NOT completed a race in their career – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
More winners than not had 10 or more runs over fences this century but it’s an even split in the last decade and the last 3 had 9 or fewer runs.
What is consistent is having 3 or more wins over fences which accounts for 80% of winners. This century and the last decade have seen 90% or more having failed to complete in their career. The only one who hadn’t was Santini who had just 4 runs over hurdles and 4 runs over fences. The next lowest number of chase starts was 7 by stable-mate Chantry House.
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won a Grade 3 or better – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
It is required to have won a Graded race before taking this but really you should have won at least a Grade 2 before now. Having a Grade 1 win is desirable and ALL of the last 5 winners ticked that box.
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