This premier handicap is run over 2 miles and 1 furlong and there are 8 hurdles scheduled to be jumped. No horse has won this twice since 1946, but it has been the source of multiple winners from the same yard with Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton responsible for 9 of the last 10 winners.
I’ve taken a look at all runnings this century and the last decade, to see what it usually takes to land this first handicap on Gold Cup day in Cheltenham.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 5, 6 or 8-years-old
- No second favourite winner since at least 1988 (as far back as my records go)
- Look for an OR of 134-141 and carrying 10-5 to 11-1
- Ideally finished Top 3 last time out
- Probably has no more than one win this season
- Has 1-3 career hurdle wins and not more than 5
- Probably doesn’t wear headgear or a tongue-tie
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 7yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
With the changes to novices’ requiring 5 runs over hurdles now to contest an open handicap such as this, we’re likely to see a shift in age however it would still look likely to go to 5 or 6-year-olds as the 6-year-olds probably will benefit from any longer-term plots.
All the last 17 winners have been aged either 5, 6 or 8 and while they’re not profitable to back blind this century, 6 and 8-year-olds are profitable to back blind in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Second favourites – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
There really is a whole array of prices that have landed this event but what’s consistent is that favourites just about cover themselves in the long run, but I don’t seem to be able to ever find a winning second favourite of this race.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 134 and 141 – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners carrying 10-5 to 11-1 – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
You can find most winners using an OR range of 134 to 141 but it’s not profitable to just back that blind. You’d also find most winners carrying 10-5 to 11-1, but again it’s not profitable to back blind in isolation.
In combining both measure of an OR of 134-141 and carrying the weight of 10-5 to 11-1 would have found 12 winners this century and shown a modest 4% ROI to SP. Combining the same for the last decade would have found 6 winners and shown a 7% ROI to SP but a 73% ROI to Betfair SP. It’s also found the last three winners and 4 of the last 5.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Finished Top 3 time out – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
We’ve had winners this century coming from their last run being just 6 days ago all the way up to 418 days ago, so there’s no real value in looking at when a horse last as.
Most winners did finish Top 3 last time out though with most of those placing second of third last time out. Those combined, are profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 3/15 (20%) & 1/6 (17%)
- No more than ONE win this season – 17/24 (71%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 1-3 WINS over hurdles – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had NOT won over further than 2m1f – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
No winner this century had more than 5 hurdle wins to their name and most came here with at least 1 and up to 3. Most winners in recent years had no more than 1 win this season and most winners had NOT won over further than 2m1f.
More winners than not had already been to Cheltenham but very few winners had already won at this track, two of the 3 who had, had run here 4 times and won twice.
HEADGEAR
Only 3 winners this century were sporting headgear and only 1 in the last decade which came back in 2017. It’s a big loss maker too.
Only 2 winners had a tongue-tie applied and it wasn’t their first time with the equipment. Again, it’s a big loss maker.
TRAINERS (winners from runners this century and this decade)
- Willie Mullins – 7/57 (£45.25) & 5/42 (£28.25)
- Dan Skelton – 4/17 (£73) & 4/17 (£73)
- Paul Nicholls – 4/32 (£14) & 0/11 (-£11)
Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have provided 9 of the last 10 winners and it’s worth mentioning that Nicky Henderson is 0 from 41 runners since his last winner back in 1997 but did have the second in 2017, 2019 and 2022.