Craven Stakes Trends – Who Will Win the Newmarket Guineas Trial on the Trends?

Dave Young has looked at all runnings of the Craven Stakes this century with a comparison to the last decade to see if he can profile what the typical Craven Stakes winner looks like coming into this race.

KEY TRENDS

• Draw isn’t likely to make or break any runner’s chance
• Most likely to be a single-figure priced runner but be cautious of those 9/4 or shorter
• Will have an OR of 105 or higher (Profitable to back blind)
• Last ran 166 to 257 days ago without exception
• Positive to have run at Newmarket (Rowley) and significant if ran here last time out
• Likely has their furthest run to date at 7 furlongs
• Respect runners from the Dewhurst and the National Stakes

Focused Trends

STALL

• Inside three stalls – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Widest three stalls – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)

Field sizes in this race are often single figure sized so it doesn’t seem that there is a huge draw bias because of that. I’ve shown the numbers for the highest (widest) and lowest (inside) drawn runners where in some smaller fields a horse might appear in both. Overall, the strike rates by stall number are not significant in general.

PRICE

• Favourites – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
• 1^st or 2^nd second favourite – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Single-figure priced – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)

Favourites are NOT profitable to back blind across either period however second favourites are for small amounts.

Most winners were sent off single figures and no winner this century has been sent off bigger than 14/1. Backing runners priced 9/4 or shorter this century is a loss maker for around -£4 and it’s -£6.75 in the last decade alone. The market will be helpful but it’s not always the most fancied runner that gets the job done.

OFFICIAL RATING

• Winners with an OR of 105 or higher – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (100%)

There have been 3 winners this century who did NOT hold an OR coming into this event and one of those came in the last decade. Away from those, most winners held an OR of 105 or higher which has been profitable to back blind this century for a £20.25 profit and 67% ROI. It’s been profitable this century too for £30.12 profit and 39% ROI. Both of those are to SP alone.

LAST TIME OUT

• Won last time out – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
• 4^th or 5^th last time out – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
• Last ran 166-257 days ago – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)

Last time out winners have been loss makers to back blind but back all runners who placed 4^th or 5^th last time out has been profitable for a near 100% ROI this century increasing to 250% in the last decade, albeit from a relatively small sample size.

ALL winners last ran between 166 and 257 days ago, so while most runners tick this box, you’d be showing a 6% ROI this century just following all these qualifiers to SP alone which increases to 25% in the last decade.

COURSE FORM

• Winners who had RUN at Newmarket (Rowley) – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Winners who had WON at Newmarket (Rowley) – 6/13 (46%) & 4/6 (67%)
• Winners who last ran at Newmarket (Rowley) – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)

Horses who had already run at Newmarket (Rowley) show an 85% ROI the last decade & 17% this century. Winning form here is preferable in more recent years than it was prior.

Around half of winners last ran at Newmarket (Rowley) and that is probably to back blind with a £34.25 profit this century and £21.75 profit in the last decade.

FORM

• Max distance RUN to date was 7 furlongs – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
• Max distance WON to date was 7 furlongs – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
• 3 or 4 runs in the last 365 days – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)

This section isn’t going to be a money-maker other than this century following all horses who had their furthest race at 7 furlongs which is showing a £6 profit from 88 qualifiers.

Still, most winners had NOT run in excess of 7 furlongs before now and had 3 to 4 runs in the last 365 days.

SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (winners vs runners this century)

• Dewhurst – 7 winners from 19 runners (37% Strike-Rate)
• National Stakes – 3 winners from 3 runners (100% Strike-Rate)
• Champagne Stakes – 2 winners from 5 runners (40% Strike-Rate)
• Somerville Tattersall Stakes – 2 winners from 11 runners (18% Strike-Rate)
• Futurity – 2 winners from 19 runners (11% Strike-Rate – no winner since 2010/2011)

There are a few paths into this race which have produced profitable methods to simply back blind with The Dewhurst and The National Stakes the biggest money makers.

HONOURS ROLL (This Century):

• 2024 – Haatem (IRE)
• 2023 – Indestructible (IRE)
• 2022 – Native Trail (GB)
• 2021 – Master Of The Seas (IRE)
• 2019 – Skardu (GB)
• 2018 – Masar (IRE)
• 2017 – Eminent (IRE)
• 2016 – Stormy Antarctic (GB)
• 2015 – Kool Kompany (IRE)
• 2014 – Toormore (IRE)
• 2013 – Toronado (IRE)
• 2012 – Trumpet Major (IRE)
• 2011 – Native Khan (FR)
• 2010 – Elusive Pimpernel (USA)
• 2009 – Delegator (GB)
• 2008 – Twice Over (GB)
• 2007 – Adagio (GB)
• 2006 – Killybegs (IRE)
• 2005 – Democratic Deficit (IRE)
• 2004 – Haafhd (GB)
• 2003 – Hurricane Alan (IRE)
• 2002 – King Of Happiness (USA)
• 2001 – Kings Ironbridge (IRE)
• 2000 – Umistim (GB)