A great spectacle and any race with Tiger Roll on the honours board is worth a second look. It was introduced to the Festival back in 2005 but after 11 renewals it was switched to a non-handicap. Changes over this summer to the Festival have seen this race revert to a handicap, so while it’s having its first year all over again, I think we can learn from the not so old days.
I’ve looked at all the runnings as a handicap to see if we can work out what it typically takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 8 to 12-years-old but probably not an 11-year-old
- Likely to be priced 4/1 or shorter (profitable to back blind)
- Carrying Top-Weight or under 11 stone
- Has won this season
- Not wearing headgear
- Last ran at Cheltenham or Punchestown
Focused Trends
AGE
- 8yo – 2/11 (18%)
- 9yo – 2/11 (18%)
- 10yo – 4/11 (36%)
- 11yo – 0/11 (0%)
- 12yo – 3/11 (18%)
12-year-olds are the only age which you can back blind in this Cross-Country handicap and show profit. They and 10-year-olds have an 11% strike rate from their runners and it’s 9% for 8-year-olds and 6% for 9-year-olds.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/11 (18%)
- Second favourites – 4/11 (36%)
- Priced 4/1 or shorter – 6/11 (55%)
Favourites are a loss maker to follow blind but both second favourites and third favourites are profitable to back blind.
If you backed all runners priced 4/1 or shorter you’d have shown a £12.5 profit from 15 qualifiers for an 83% ROI to SP alone.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 134 and 140 – 5/11 (45%)
- Winners carrying less than 11 stone – 8/11 (73%)
This race when run as a handicap probably didn’t attract the same class of horse, so these Official Ratings may be a red herring, especially in this first reversion to a handicap.
We’ve had just 22% of runners with an OR higher than 140 but 13 of the 31 entries this year are rated 143 or higher. With a maximum field of just 16 runners, I’m not sure looking at OR will actually help in here, although it would favour the lightweights this year if you did want to factor them in.
Speaking of weights, 3 winners have carried more than 11 stone to victory and all were the top weights, the rest of the winners carried less than 11 stone.
LAST RUN
- Won last time out – 5/11 (45%)
- Last ran 60 days ago or less – 7/11 (64%)
- Last ran in Cheltenham or Punchestown – 7/11 (64%)
Most winners last ran 60 days ago or less and in either Cheltenham or Punchestown. Last time out winners had a decent enough record and show a very small 50p profit if backing blind.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had won a race that season – 8/11 (73%)
Most winners of this race had won a race before taking this in the same season.
HEADGEAR
- Winner who were NOT wearing any headgear – 11/11 (100%)
There had been 41 horses who sported some form of headgear in the Festival Cross Country chase as a handicap and none of them won. Quantativeeasing was carried out when in with a chance as he traded even money in running.
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