A Derby trial which found the winner of that classic as recently as 2022. I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared to the last decade to see if we can profile the type of horse who is likely to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- 4th favourites perform well above expectations
- The winner will be priced 5/2 to 12/1 at SP
- Preferably won last time out
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Respect runners who last ran at Newmarket or Newbury
- Unlikely to have already raced at York
- Should have won at one mile or further
- Should have won at least half of their races
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 4th in the betting – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- SP of 5/2 to 12/1 – 20/25 (80%) & 10/10 (100%)
Favourites are loss makers to follow blind across both periods and backing any of the top 3 in the betting at SP this century would lose money. Interestingly, backing the 4th in the betting at SP shows around a 40% strike rate across both periods and over 200% ROI for each too.
Most winners this century, and all winners in the last decade, were priced between 5/2 and 12/1 which shows a 37% ROI in the last decade alone.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or higher – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
Not every winner held an OR going into this race, but I thought it was worth noting that using a line in the sand at 100 will find as many winners above that as it does below (including those without an OR).
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in the last 30 days – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Last ran at Newmarket or Newbury – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners will make you a profit backing blind and they account for most of the winners. Of the remainder, second placed finishers last time out hold the same strike rate as runners who placed 5th last time out but they have found more winners.
Most winners had run in the last 30 days and it’s still profitable to back blind from the last decade but to a much lower ROI than this century.
Most runners last ran at Newmarket but they have helped find the most winners across both periods while Newbury runners last time out have a profitable record blind themselves.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at York – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 1/1 (100%)
All bar one winner this century had NOT already run at York and that winner had been here twice and one once.
FORM
- Had won 50% or more of their races – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had run at 10-11 furlongs – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won at one mile or further – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
6 winners of this race were unbeaten and only one of those had race more than twice. Most winners had won 50% or more of their races.
12 winners had already run over 10-11 furlongs and 8 of those had won at that trip too. Most winners had won at one mile or further before now.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Economics (GB)
- 2023 – The Foxes (IRE)
- 2022 – Desert Crown (GB)
- 2021 – Hurricane Lane (IRE)
- 2020 – Thunderous (IRE)
- 2019 – Telecaster (GB)
- 2018 – Roaring Lion (USA)
- 2017 – Permian (IRE)
- 2016 – Wings of Desire (GB)
- 2015 – Golden Horn (GB)
- 2014 – The Grey Gatsby (IRE)
- 2013 – Libertarian (GB)
- 2012 – Bonfire (GB)
- 2011 – Carlton House (USA)
- 2010 – Cape Blanco (IRE)
- 2009 – Black Bear Island (IRE)
- 2008 – Tartan Bearer (IRE)
- 2007 – Authorized (IRE)
- 2006 – Septimus (IRE)
- 2005 – Motivator (GB)
- 2004 – North Light (IRE)
- 2003 – Magistretti (USA)
- 2002 – Moon Ballad (IRE)
- 2001 – Dilshaan (GB)
- 2000 – Sakhee (USA)
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