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Daryl Carter’s Best Bets – Saturday, 20th May

Dary; Carters Tips

Top Tipster Daryl Carter has an arsenal of picks for a brilliant Saturday’s racing

Back his selections with BetUK’s HUGE new customer offer of £30 in Free Bets when you deposit and bet £10!

Posted: 4.10pm May 18th (Odds correct at time posted)

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2.05 Newmarket – Ceanna (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
It would be astonishing should John and Thady Gosden’s CEANNA not prove far better than this opening rating of 79 on seasonal return, and the added bonus of Benoit De La Sayette’s claim of three pounds makes her a very lucrative option. She was being taught her trade on debut at Kempton before being denied a clear run continuously behind the 95-rated Embrace, who has since run very well in Group 3 company. The second, Way To Amarillo, has won her next two and is rated 79. The selection readily reversed the form with the third Impulsive Lady when last seen at Southwell, proving that form all wrong, and the second has since scored to boost the form. She has a promising future and is closely related to the yards useful Listed winner Pennymoor.

Aspall Cyder 1728 Handicap

2.25 Newbury – Yibir (2.5pt win – 13/8 generally)
YIBIR looks good value at anything 7/4 or bigger and rates a solid proposition for the boys in blue. He is upwards of nine pounds clear of his rivals on seasonal return, has won at the course and has never finished outside of the first three when encountering ground with good or better in the going description. Furthermore, his record fresh reads 123 when off for 50 days or more, with his highest RPR of 123 coming off a 140 days break and only finding Alenquer, subsequent Derby winner Adayar and Sheema Classic winner Shahryar too good after 150 days or more. The presence of William Buick is a big positive with a pointer to his fitness levels, and he has optimum conditions to score. He should be a shade of odds on here.

Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3)

3.00 Newbury – Have Secret (0.5pt e/w – 16/1 generally) and Desert Hero (1.5pt win – 9/2 generally)

HAVE SECRET was highly progressive last term, and anything he achieved over trips shy of 1m is all a bonus. He rounded out last season with an excellent eased-down victory over Shahbaz at Nottingham, and that one went on to score in a handicap off of 82 at Newmarket over a horse that is now rated 11lbs higher in the handicap (95). That race has produced multiple winners, and the selection was a huge eyecatcher in a race at Beverley last year behind the now 104-rated Dear My Friend (the second has since won and rated 86). He surely has scope off of this rating of 89, having improved his RPR’s with each outing. There’s surely more to come from him, and he is a rock-solid each-way proposition providing he is fit and well first time up.
Suppose there’s a Group horse in here (which this race has continuously produced). In that case, it’s DESERT HERO, who won on debut over Captain Winters in a very commanding fashion before getting no run on the rail when we strongly fancied him for the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown (went off favourite). The winner that day was Silver Knott, now rated 115, and even if that was his true running, he would now meet that rival in receipt of 21 lbs which can’t be right given his five-length defeat. The move up in distance from those two outings is a huge positive, and although he took a backward step at Redcar last season on deep ground he was still an authoritative winner at the line. This race has a good roll of honour, so keeping him on side is the sensible thing to do.

BetVictor London Gold Cup Heritage Handicap

3.35 Newbury – My Prospero (1.5pt win – 11/2 generally)

MY PROSPERO is the clear-form horse in this race, and he rates an excellent value proposition. He improved significantly on just his sixth start to finish a narrow 1/2 length third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last term behind Bay Bridge and Adayar. He quickened not once but twice off a good gallop and closed right to the line. Given his unexposed profile and the fact that his only visit here saw him take the scalp of a subsequent Britannia winner, he makes plenty of appeal even on seasonal return. He has a good record fresh and will love the drying ground. Modern Games is interesting, but his best work has come abroad, and Laurel – as talented as she is – should not be a shorter price than the selection. This is an excellent opportunity for a first Group 1 win, even if it is at a trip likely to prove shy of his best.

Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)

3.50 Newmarket – Montassib (1pt win – 5/2 generally)

MONTASSIB has been well found in the market but is a winner in waiting for connections, having caught the eye from well off a steady pace at Haydock and finishing to excellent effect. He has gone well here previously and is handicapped to get his career back on track today with plausible excuses for his Lincoln return.

Aspall Blush Cyder Handicap

4.10 Newbury – Wanees (1pt win – 8/1 bet365, 13/2 Will Hill, 6/1 generallyy ) and Dawn Of Liberation (0.5pt e/w – 33/1 generally)
WANEES hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential, but he may have excuses for his defeats and looks well worth another chance to confirm the promise he showed last season. He blew out in the Lincoln when as short as 10/1 for that contest but so did many others on deep ground. Interestingly he came down the stand-side rail along with a handful of others that dropped out the back of the TV, and he was very free on his first start since September. Being a free-going sort has been a trait of his. His defeat at Goodwood last July saw him pull the arms off of Jim Crowley when drawn wide in stall 10, circle the field and post himself wide with his jockey only a passenger. Other than that, he has been rather prolific with his sole defeat outside of his debut run here (when pulled into the steward’s room for a suspect ride) when an excellent three-lengths sixth in the Britannia Stakes. Connections have given him time since his Lincoln run with a 49-day break which is a positive, and the four-year-old has scope off of this rating of 96 this season.
DAWN OF LIBERATION may go under the radar here, but I am far from convinced that he likes the undulations of Newmarket, and four of his nine runs have come at that venue. He travelled strongly on seasonal return but had no room to manoeuvre and then was all at sea in the dip, so I am happy to put a line through that run. He has been dropped eight pounds for two runs at Newmarket and today makes his handicap debut off of 99. The return to a more conventional straight track should suit him. He has run three times on straight tracks recording a third here on debut and a second to Hoo Ya Mal (115) at York before a dominant victory over Mount Athos at Doncaster. He scored at Goodwood last April and ran well at Epsom in Listed company. He could be overpriced here and looks worth chancing at big odds.

Daryl Carter’s Best Bets

2.05 Newmarket – Ceanna (1pt win – 9/2 generally)

2.25 Newbury – Yibir (2.5pt win – 13/8 generally)
3.00 Newbury – Have Secret (0.5pt e/w – 16/1 generally) and Desert Hero (1.5pt win – 9/2 generally)
3.35 Newbury – My Prospero (1.5pt win – 11/2 generally)
4.10 Newbury – Wanees (1pt win – 8/1 bet365, 13/2 Will Hill, 6/1 generallyy ) and Dawn Of Liberation (0.5pt e/w – 33/1 generally)

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