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Daryl Carter’s Best Bets – Saturday, 6th May

Top Tipster Daryl Carter has plenty of selections for an action packed Saturday on Guineas weekend.

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Posted: 8.40am May 5th (Odds correct at time posted)

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2.15 Newmarket – QUEEN OLLY (1pt win – 12/1 Will Hill, 11/1 generally)

Three-year-olds have a good record in this contest, and those priced around 9/1 or shorter have a 5-15 strike rate (33%), and that doesn’t include the 33/1 winner in 2017. QUEEN OLLY was too keen here over seven furlongs last time, but she went well for a long way before the early excursions took their toll. She drops back in distance which has previously seen her to best effect for her former yard, notably on the July course when a two-length second to Mawj and Lezoo in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire. The fitting of the tongue tie first time is a positive George Boughey angle, and she is drawn well in stall ten and in receipt of plenty of weight all around.

Howden British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (The Kilvington Stakes) (Fillies & Mares)

3.05 Goodwood – HONITON (2pt win – 4/1 generally)

HONITON could be well treated returning from a layoff, and his trainer has a 32% strike rate with horses off 300 days or more (16 from their last 50), so the absence should be of no concern. The ground is set to be on the soft side at Goodwood, which will suit him and the bare form of what he achieved when last seen looks to have been underestimated in this market. This is effectively a drop into a 0-95 and a far easier task than his handicap debut in the Golden Gates Handicap at the Royal meeting. He was fast on the upgrade last term, and given the horses he has been behind, this is NAP material, particularly if he improves for his gelding operation, and he is drawn well in stall two, so he makes plenty of appeal.

William Hill Epic Value Handicap
 | Uniform
Result
4th 4/1

3.25 Newmarket – SAGA (1pt win – 11/1 Paddy Power/Betfair, 10/1 generally), HOWTH (1pt win – 25/1 Boylesports, 22/1 generally), THE CITY’S PHANTOM (0.5pt e/w – 66/1 Paddy Power/Betfair, 50/1 generally)

SAGA is now seven pounds better off with Jimi Hendrix on their meeting in the Britannia Stakes last season, and while the selection has not taken a step forward, today could be the day. Frankie Dettori is on board for just the third time, and he has recorded form figures of 122 scoring at Ascot before bumping into the very smart Maljoom at Kempton and then a head second in the aforementioned Britannia Handicap. Interestingly, connections switch out the blinkers for the cheek-pieces – a trick they used on a number of horses to good effect – and Saga ran a career-best at Ascot when fitted with first-time blinkers. This is the first time he will have a strong gallop to aim at since his Britannia win, and he looks well worth chancing.

HOWTH has to be of interest off of this lowly rating of just 92, given he recorded an excellent closing sectional and RPR of 100 when last seen in November on the AW. That was just his second start for Michael Appleby, who has a habit of improving horses that have been in the doldrums for previous trainers, and this former inmate of Aidan O’Brien’s showed up very well in some hot group races last season as a three-year-old. I am happy to forgive him for two runs in headgear last season and his final start for O’Brien, given he was held up in a very tactically run Group 3 contest. He has experience with this track from running in the Royal Lodge when a not-disgraced fifth and the booking of Oisin Murphy catches the eye (29%). His latest run was a bounce back to a career-best, and given this sizeable pot, he is sure to be ready.

THE CITY’S PHANTOM relishes a decent surface, and if he is going to land a big pot like this, then it’s surely going to be on a seasonal return having an unbeaten record after 100 days off or more. He can hang left, so being drawn in stall 17 close to the rail is the ideal spot for him, and the headgear worn the last twice to not-so-good effect has been left off. He is very over-priced, considering that seven of the last nine have carried less than 8st12 to win this. There’s little doubt he is a punty bet, but at 66/1, he is worth chancing. Take no less than 40/1. I’ve staked appropriately to be able to cover all three.

Howden Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

4.00 Newmarket – TWILIGHT CALLS (1pt win – 10/3 generally)

TWILIGHT CALLS did remarkably well to finish second in the King’s Stand when last seen and boast a 100% record when fresh with two victories and a Newmarket course record of 115 – that fifth (in this race last year ) on his second outing was a one length defeat when racing away from the pace and getting a bump mid-race. The booking of Ryan Moore suggests that he is ready to roll the first time up (29~% strike rate), and in the hope that the action develops down the centre, Ryan Moore should be able to slice through runners.

Howden Palace House Stakes (Group 3)

4.40 Newmarket – LITTLE BIG BEAR (2pt win – 11/2 generally) + SAKHEER (1pt win – 17/2 Will Hill, 8/1 generally)

I like runners drawn high at Newmarket, particularly in this race. If they have won from a low draw, nine times out of ten, they have come down the centre but finished on the stands rail. LITTLE BIG BEAR could not have been more impressive as a two-year-old, and stepping up in distance should prove no issue to him given his breeding (by No Nay Never out of a Bering Mare who was a 1m4f horse herself). He is layered with stamina and is not your usual type that steps up in distance for this and but for a small set back, he would have been seen over further last year. He was exceptional in the Phoenix Stakes and can follow in the footsteps of Siskin, who won the Irish 2,000 Guineas on his next start. He is drawn well and looks a class above most of this opposition, particularly those that have seemingly shown their hand over this distance. I am not keen on Auguste Rodin. I think he was flattered by his track position at Doncaster and the wayward nature of Holloway Boy, who hung violently right in the first time visor (remains on here), but he was still only beaten five lengths, and he lost that much given his antics. I am also not convinced he will enjoy this track with a high-head carriage. Chaldean must have needed the run at Newbury when unseating at the start; otherwise, why would they take him? I am not buying “they just wanted a day out”, and he was not strong at the finish over seven furlongs last season. Royal Scotsman lacks the class of a Guineas winner, and William Buick is on Silver Knott because Noble Style has been working poorly – he is another who is not at home on the undulations. Indestructible should run well, and the remainder is hard to fancy.

SAKHEER has similarly looked impressive to Little Big Bear in three starts over six furlongs and is another that is sure to improve for this move up in distance. He, along with the above-mentioned, has the ability to be future stars and progress past this bunch, so I want him on the side too.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts & Fillies)

Daryl Carter’s Best Bets

2.15 Newmarket – QUEEN OLLY (1pt win – 12/1 Will Hill, 11/1 generally)

3.05 Goodwood – HONITON (2pt win – 4/1 generally)

3.25 Newmarket – SAGA (1pt win – 11/1 Paddy Power/Betfair, 10/1 generally), HOWTH (1pt win – 25/1 Boylesports, 22/1 generally), THE CITY’S PHANTOM (0.5pt e/w – 66/1 Paddy Power/Betfair, 50/1 generally)

4.00 Newmarket – TWILIGHT CALLS (1pt win – 10/3 generally)

4.40 Newmarket – LITTLE BIG BEAR (2pt win – 11/2 generally) + SAKHEER (1pt win – 17/2 Will Hill, 8/1 generally)


Check out the Weekend Watch preview to see who Daryl and the team are siding with on Saturday’s big racing – including their picks for the 2000 Guineas:


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