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Daryl Carter’s Best Bets – Thursday, 4th May

Top Tipster Daryl Carter gives one selections for Thursday – a confident 1.5pt win tip on the Salisbury card.

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Posted: 5.15pm May 3rd (Odds correct at time posted)

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4.20 Salisbury – LADY LABELLE (1.5pt win – 4/1 William Hill, 7/2 generally)

There looks to be a bit of a blot on the handicap system here with LADY LABELLE. She was last seen going off favourite over subsequent Group 2 Park Hills Stakes winner Mimikyu who was making her handicap debut off of a rating of just 86 – she is now rated 112. There’s no getting away from the fact that it was a below-par effort when well held there but but she moved into contention very strongly before flattening out, and she may not have been at home on the Newmarket undulations. Still, that’s worth forgiving, having chased home the very smart 112-rated Al Qareem at York when he was rated 89 on her penultimate start – another Group 2 winner and the Bahrain Trophy runner-up to the smart 116-rated Deauville Legend. She was only beaten two lengths on that occasion at York, splitting the Godolphin Pair Wild Crusade (now rated 108 from 88) and New Comedy (reached a rating of 98 in Meydan since). The fact that her return run as a three-year-old saw her bump into another smart one at Wolverhampton in Stay Alert (now rated 108) means she must be of interest off of this rating of 78 with zero chance of her bumping into a trio of horses so well treated. She has been off the track for 313 days, but the booking of Oisin Murphy catches the eye for a trainer and jockey partnership that are five from 14 with horses off 300 days or more and yield a profit of £15 to a £1 level stake. They have scored with four of their last seven runners and two third places, and if you were just to look at those runners, they partner up with on turf returning from 300 days off or more, they are 50% with form figures of 13114721 (as well as 50% with four-year-olds). Today’s soft ground should be no issue being by The Gurka, who was Group 1 placed and spent most of his short career on soft ground, and her draw in stall five is ideal with a 45% ROI for middle draws at Salisbury winning 10% of the time more than low or high drawn runners.

William Hill In Play Racing Handicap

Daryl Carter’s Best Bets

4.20 Salisbury – LADY LABELLE (1.5pt win – 4/1 William Hill, 7/2 generally)

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