The Breeders’ Cup action on Saturday is sure to be fast and furious, and ITV viewers can watch along with three of the biggest races during the evening. Here are GG tipster Joe Napier’s verdicts on the trio of contests, including whether City Of Troy can seal his place in equine history…
8.21 Del Mar – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1)
Japanese raider Awesome Result could provide one for her home nation, but clear favourite THORPEDO ANNA is worthy of her position clear in the market. She only narrowly justified prohibitive odds of 1/10 in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes last time, but had to be waited with for a gap, and though jockey Brian Hernandez Jr was showing her the whip throughout the final 100 yards, he was clearly easing her off from a full drive. Before that, she was beaten just a head by Fierceness, who is City Of Troy’s main danger in the Classic, in the Travers Stakes, which looks to be form leagues above what any of this field have achieved otherwise. Candied and Raging Sea can fight out minor honours otherwise.
9.01 Del Mar – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1)
As is the case in a few turf races at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, the European runners hold sway, although there is not an awesome amount of depth in the challenge. Far Bridge should therefore be considered for the hosts, though maybe LUXEMBOURG is the best play to win his fifth Group 1 prize.
There is a slight concern that his last two runs suggest he is regressing, but he was laying up with an absurd pace in the King George, and was not beaten too far in the Irish Champion Stakes behind Economics last time. He just about got home in the Coronation Cup prior to that, but this sharper 1m4f test might be exactly the kind of platform he needs at this point in his career. Ryan Moore has chosen him over the progressive filly Wingspan which suggests Ballydoyle have faith that he still has the requisite ability in what might prove his swansong.
9.41 Del Mar – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)
Everyone can be forgiven for waiving bets here and supporting City Of Troy in his quest for immortality. Being by an American Triple Crown winner gives him hope, and we know he possesses rare ability, but if you are having a bet on these shores, his price, though drifting, still represents precious little value for a horse having his first ever run on the unique US dirt.
I mentioned this in my weekly GG column, but the price discrepancies between US and UK bookmakers make a fascinating case for NEXT, who has been running in races between 1m3f and 1m6f, after Wesley Ward had only campaigned him up to 1m in his younger days. However, William D Cowans has got him winning, with the six-year-old now on an unbeaten streak of seven.
Dropping back to 1m2f may pose some awkward questions, but those seven wins have come by a staggering 93 accumulative lengths. Among those victories are four Group race prizes, while his big selling point to a UK audience is that he can be backed at 33/1 here, compared to just 8/1 in the States. That is a potential mark-up for the ages if he can prove adaptable.
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