A race now named after “The Tank” Denman who made Newbury racecourse his own with two incredible weight carrying performances in the then Hennessy Handicap Chase. He took this very race in 2008 and it was given his name in 2012.
He’s not the only big name to have taken this race with the likes of Kauto Star, Coneygree and Native River doing what Denman did by taking this and The Gold Cup in the same year.
I’ve taken a look at every running of this race, which was first introduced in 2000, and I’ve looked the last decade, to find out what it takes to be worthy of winning this Grade 2 in name, but Grade 1 by the standard set.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be 7 to 10-years-old
- Backing all runners 13/2 or bigger has been profitable in all runnings and the last 10
- Preferably has raced at and won at Newbury before
- Ideally has 2 or more runs and 2 or more wins at 23-25 furlongs
- Will have already won a Grade 2 but desirable to have won a Grade 1
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 8/24 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 5/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
7-year-olds have the highest strike rate both this century and in the last decade however while it’s been profitable to back these blind in all running’s it shows a small loss in the last 10 renewals. 8, 9 and 10-year-olds perform at about the same strike rate yet thanks to Zanza and Secret Investor winning at 16/1 and 14/1 respectively, the 9-year-olds are the only ones to have been profitable to back blind. All runners between 7 and 10 years old warrant respect.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 6/1 or shorter – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites have won around half of the races but it’s a loss maker if just following these in blind. Most winners are priced 6/1 or shorter, but again it’s a loss maker. In the last decade if you’d backed all runners priced 13/2 or bigger you’d show a £6 profit from 26 qualifiers and £27.50 profit this century from 81 qualifiers.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 152 or more – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 162 or more – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
This is a Grade 2 so setting the bar at 152 is enough to show 80% of the winners. This century you’d be just over £5 up backing all runners with this race or higher, in the last decade, you’d need to shuffle it up to 153+ to show a small 24p profit.
The race does attract plenty of Grade 1 horses though, so runners rated 162 or higher show an £8 profit in the last decade, but a small 29p loss this century.
Ratings alone won’t really help your judgement as the penalty system can be a great leveller.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran 31-90 days ago – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran at Kempton – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out winners are a loss maker just backing blind however, if you followed every runner who last ran at Kempton, you’d show a £33 profit this century and £2 in the last decade.
COURSE FORM – (two running’s away from Newbury excluded)
- Winners who had RUN at Newbury – 17/22 (77%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Newbury – 13/17 (76%) & 7/9 (78%)
Most winners had run at Newbury and most of those who had, had won at the track too.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 2 or more RUNS at 23-25F – 20/24 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 2 or more WINS at 23-25F – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 10 or MORE runs over fences – 13/24 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
There are horses who have won this race without a run at between 23-25 furlongs, but most had run at that trip more than once. Around two-thirds of the winners had won more than once at about 23-25 furlongs and more winners than not, had 10 or more career chase starts.
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Grade 2 – 20/24 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Being a Grade 2, you might be excused for thinking that being a prior Grade 1 winner would put you in the minority, but more than half of the winners had tasted top grade success. Most winners had at least already won a Grade 2.
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