There are some huge prices available about some of Matty Sutcliffe’s fancies for day one of the St Leger festival at Doncaster. You can back them early now, as he provides his value bets for Thursday.
Published: 3.30pm Tuesday, 10th September (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:50 Doncaster – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo) – Eartha 10/1 1pt EW 5 places
EARTHA looks to have been light in lightly by the handicapper for her nursery debut off a mark of 79, having been beaten three quarter of a length by Bountiful giving away 5lbs, with that one now rated 99 after a close 4th in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket in July.
Richard Fahey’s daughter of Land Force went one better next time out at Wetherby, lowering the colours of the well backed 5/4F Unspoken Love, who subsequently racked up a double before two lesser efforts in black type company, but is now rated 83 on the back of that. She was perhaps hindered by her draw toward the nearside when beaten a Southwell under a penalty, but she was only touched off by half a length by a now 83 rated filly, and her progress can continue now back on turf.
Her mark surely underestimates her for a yard who won this in 2014, and given they drifted across to the nearside in this race last season, her draw in sixteen should pose no issue with the step up in trip to suit on pedigree.
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2:25 Doncaster – Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo) – Deauville Blue 66/1 0.5pt EW 3 places (100/1 4 places 365) + Midnight City 66/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
On figures, the likes of Camille Pissarro, Caburn and Intrusively will prove popular but toward the rear end of the market, DEAUVILLE BLUE rates an interesting candidate. The son of Blue Point fetched £80,000 as a yearling and shaped with immediate promise at Newbury on debut in May.
Deauville Blue suffered a luckless passage in a rough maiden there, failing to pick up through a wall of horses while those toward the middle had already begun their efforts. That form’s worked out typically well in places, and he was only a neck behind King Of Bears there, who’s a top price 8/1 (at the time of writing) for this contest, so we’re certainly overpriced with that one.
I was impressed with how quickly he picked up having lost momentum at one stage, and while he has a fair layoff to contend with, this well-bred son of Blue Point brings stacks of potential to the table.
Given seven of the last ten winners of this race (including the last three) had all previously raced at York, including three in the 2yo Goffs Million, then I’d also like to consider MIDNIGHT CITY who fared well from a potentially unfavourable high draw and raced without cover throughout at York. The son of Acclamation shaped very much like a work in progress there, but was only beaten three lengths behind the 106 rated Arizona Blaze (favoured by track position) and length behind the 101 rated An Outlaws Grace, though is worse off at the weights with that one this time around.
He’s a full brother to the talented Online Alexander who’s third to Meccas Angel in the Scarborough Stakes at this meeting in 2014, and shaped last time out as if this extra half furlong on a more galloping track could play into his strengths for a yard who often go well around here.
3:00 Doncaster – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Elsie’s Ruan 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
Smart York maiden winner ELSIE’S RUAN didn’t appear to handle the undulations of Newmarket in the Sweet Solera, but still improved a chunk from her debut to confirm that initial promise. The daughter of Ulysses was outpaced toward the far-side and looked awkward without cover, though she picked up strongly once gathering her stride and took a while to pull up, suggesting both there was plenty left in the tank and this step up in distance will promise to suit.
She was only a length behind the 103 rated Mountain Breeze, who would be top rated in this field, so she’s bang there on figures and the potential for an easier going on this flat track will undoubtedly see her in a much better light here.
4:10 Doncaster – Pertemps Network Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Blake 2pt WIN 8/1
Providing the ground doesn’t dry up too much, BLAKE can continue his progress and record back to back 2pt NAP’s for us. The imposing son of Zoffany won with any amount in hand at Sandown in July, and connections have had to be patient to find the right opportunity.
The form of his latest win has worked out well with the third (five lengths behind) winning next time out, the fourth (six lengths behind) has won two on the spin and now rated 13lbs higher, the fifteen-length fifth has also won since, and the 25L 7th has climbed 8lbs in the weight with two subsequent victories.
He initially caught my eye at Epsom behind the now 110-rated Persica when faring extremely well in the circumstances with a dual subsequent winner in behind, and despite that 9lbs rise in the weights, he’s well handicapped on the aforementioned form but even more so on his two length second to Lava Stream over a mile here in May, who’s now rated some 32lbs higher after a listed win and a neck G2 second.
He should get plenty of cover from stall one, and if any forecast rain gets into the ground then I’d imagine he’ll be half of his price come the off with Billy Loughnane booked to retain the ride from last time out.
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